SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian dollar inched lower on Wednesday after a muted reading on wages underlined the negligible chance of a rate rise anytime soon, just hours before the Federal Reserve was expected to talk up the prospect of more U.S hikes.
The Aussie <AUD=D4> eased 0.25 percent to $0.7861, having breached support around $0.7890 overnight. Its New Zealand counterpart <NZD=D4> managed to hold steady at $0.7340.
A long-awaited report on Australian wages produced only a minor surprise with growth of 2.1 percent, just topping market forecasts of 2.0 percent.
Growth in the private sector lagged at 1.9 percent, far short of the 3.5 percent recently touted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as a reasonable target.
"The data are still consistent with the considerable slack in the labour market despite the step-up in the pace of jobs created," said Robert Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"While the trend is now headed in the right direction, the pace of gains is still very low, and we are some way off triggers for a hawkish tilt on the back of the wages story."
He suspects a first hike in rates will not come until early 2019, and the market is not much different. Futures <0#YIB:> put the chance of a move by August at just one-in-four, rising to three-in-four by December.
In contrast, minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting were likely to show policymakers were still set on lifting U.S. rates in March and a further two times this year.
As a result, Australian government two-year notes <AU2YT=TWEB> are paying 33 basis points less than U.S. paper. This time last year, they were offering 54 basis points more.
Likewise, cash rates in New Zealand are not expected to rise anytime soon, with the central bank there projecting a chance of a first move by mid-2019.
Yields on kiwi two-year debt <NZ2YT=RR> are thus 38 basis points under those in the United States.
Australian government bond futures edged up further in the wake of the wages news. The three-year bond contract <YTTc1> added 2 ticks to 97.840, while the 10-year contract <YTCc1> firmed 1.5 ticks to 97.1200.
New Zealand government bonds <0#NZTSY=> also gained, nudging yields down as much as 3 basis points at the long end.
(Editing by Richard Borsuk)
