Auburn vs Northwestern: Vrbo Citrus Bowl prediction and game preview.
Auburn vs Northwestern: Vrbo Citrus Bowl Broadcast
Date: Friday, January 1
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
Venue: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Network: ABC
– All of the CFN Fearless Predictions
Auburn (6-4) vs Northwestern (6-2) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Vrbo Citrus Bowl
– It’s a big game for the Big Ten. Northwestern played for the Big Ten Championship, it pushed Ohio State a bit in the 22-10 loss, and it has one of the hottest head coaches in all of football with the NFL about to be knocking on Pat Fitzgerald’s door.
It’s Northwestern, but it’s supposed to beat a mediocre Auburn team with interim head coach Kevin Steele keeping the seat warm before newly hired head man Bryan Harsin takes over.
– Yeah, it’s a big game for the Big Ten. Not only does it supposedly have the better team, and not only has Auburn gone 2-5 in its last seven bowls since 2011, but the conference has struggled lately against the SEC in this thing. Michigan’s loss to Alabama last year made it 1-7 in the last eight in the Citrus between the two power conferences.
– If you like lots of fun, exciting, high-octane offense, this isn’t for you. However, Northwestern doesn’t miss a whole lot of tackles – despite getting run over by Trey Sermon and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship – it leads the nation in pass efficiency defense.
Auburn’s D has been sneaky-decent, and QB Bo Nix is a hit-or-miss playmaker who could use a big performance going into the offseason. This should be a close, tough battle.
Why Auburn, Northwestern Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Auburn Will Win, Why Northwestern Will Win, Auburn vs Northwestern Prediction
Why Auburn Will Win
– The Northwestern offense doesn’t really work. It has its moments, and it’s extremely opportunistic, but there isn’t anything to get into a twist over for a team that’s used to dealing with teams that can throw the ball.
Northwestern only threw nine touchdown passes with eight picks on the year, came up with one scoring threw in the last three games, and does next to nothing down the field on a consistent basis. It’s all relative – again, the SEC threw the ball a whole lot – but Auburn was third in the SEC in pass defense.
– No, seriously. The Northwestern offense doesn’t really work. Okay, so that’s not fair, and it’s not quite right. It’s not built to bomb away and get into wild shootouts, and that’s by design. Slow things down, keep the scoring low, rely on the defense, and take advantage of every opportunity. However, 736 of the team’s 1,299 rushing yards came in two games – the Wildcats aren’t going to roll up 500 yards of total offense in this.
– Eight. That’s how many times Auburn turned the ball over. The Tigers lost one fumble, gave up three picks in the loss to South Carolina, two more in the loss to Alabama, and that was about it. The Wildcats forced 15 takeaways in the first five games, won all five, and then stopped. They were +8 in turnover margin over those five games, and -5 over the last three, losing two of them. Again, Auburn doesn’t have a problem with giveaways.
Northwestern isn’t always about the turnover margin as much as it is about the timing of the mistakes for both sides. It turned it over three times against Iowa, but came back and won late when the Hawkeyes started screwing up. Auburn can’t force things, but …
Why Northwestern Will Win
– This team has as a way of making the other team force things. You know what Northwestern is going to do, you know it’s going to play at a deliberate pace, and you know you have to be patient, but teams tend to crumble under the pressure against this group.
The D has been excellent in the fourth quarters of games – at least it was until late in the year – it’s a killer on third downs, and it doesn’t give up a whole lot of big things down the field.
– The Auburn offense doesn’t really work. It’s fine, and it had a few nice games against the bad defenses on the slate, but it failed to hit 400 yards in any of the last four games and in six games on the season. That plays right into Northwestern’s hands.
Nebraska was able to get up over 400 yards, but it couldn’t do squat in the red zone and stalled in the second half of the loss. Ohio State ran over the Wildcats and cranked up over 500 yards, but that’s Ohio State. No one else was able to do much of anything, which leads into the final, biggest issue.
– Auburn’s defense is miserable on third downs. Again, Northwestern isn’t an offensive machine, but it doesn’t take a whole lot of first downs and chain moving for this system to grind the game down to a nub. The D is brilliant on third downs, and Auburn’s allows teams to connect on 51% of their chances.
If Northwestern is able to convert on half of its third down tries – uh oh.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Auburn vs Northwestern Prediction, Vrbo Citrus Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen
If you haven’t watched Northwestern, here’s how this works.
Auburn will seem like it’s always on the verge of dominating this. It’ll go up early, Bo Nix will throw a touchdown pass, there will be a field goal, and it’ll seem like the SEC talent will be too much for the Wildcats. And then it’ll be the third quarter and Auburn won’t have the game put away.
There will be a mistake of some sort, Northwestern will score, and then all of a sudden, Auburn will realize that for all the drives and all of the chances, there aren’t enough points.
Northwestern will go up on one late scoring drive, Auburn will have a shot in the final minutes to pull it off, and everything will stall just past midfield.
That’s how Pat Fitzgerald teams win games. Warning, it won’t be anything pretty, but you’ll probably be either 1) napping after New Year’s Eve, and/or 2) watching the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Georgia and Cincinnati.
It’s okay. You can check in once in a while on this, but be there for the last 20 minutes.
Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs Northwestern Prediction, Line
Northwestern 23, Auburn 20
Bet on Auburn vs Northwestern with BetMGM
Northwestern -3.5, o/u: 43.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
– CFN Experts Picks: Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Must See Rating: 4
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
Vrbo Citrus Bowl History
Jan. 1, 2020 Alabama 35, Michigan 16
Jan. 1, 2019 Kentucky 27, Penn State 24
Jan. 1, 2018 Notre Dame 21, LSU 17
Dec. 31, 2016 LSU 29, Louisville 9
Jan. 1, 2016 Michigan 41 Florida 7
Jan. 1, 2015 Missouri 33 Minnesota 17
Jan. 1, 2014 South Carolina 34 Wisconsin 24
Jan. 1, 2013 Georgia 45 Nebraska 31
Jan. 2, 2012 South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13
Jan. 1, 2011 Alabama 49 Michigan State 7
Jan. 1, 2010 Penn State 19 LSU 17
Jan. 1, 2009 Georgia 24 Michigan State 12
Jan. 1, 2008 Michigan 41 Florida 35
Jan. 1, 2007 Wisconsin 17 Arkansas 14
Jan. 2, 2006 Wisconsin 24 Auburn 10
Jan. 1, 2005 Iowa 30 LSU 25
Jan. 1, 2004 Georgia 34 Purdue 27 (OT)
Jan. 1, 2003 Auburn 13 Penn State 9
Jan. 1, 2002 Tennessee 45 Michigan 17
Jan. 1, 2001 Michigan 31 Auburn 28
Jan. 1, 2000 Michigan State 37 Florida 34
Jan. 1, 1999 Michigan 45 Arkansas 31
Jan. 1, 1998 Florida 21 Penn State 6
Jan. 1, 1997 Tennessee 48 Northwestern 28
Jan. 1, 1996 Tennessee 20 Ohio State 14
Jan. 2, 1995 Alabama 24 Ohio State 17
Jan. 1, 1994 Penn State 31 Tennessee 13
Jan. 1, 1993 Georgia 21 Ohio State 14
Jan. 1, 1992 California 37 Clemson 13
Jan. 1, 1991 Georgia Tech 45 Nebraska 21
Jan. 1, 1990 Illinois 31 Virginia 21
Jan. 2, 1989 Clemson 13 Oklahoma 6
Jan. 1, 1988 Clemson 35 Penn State 10
Jan. 1, 1987 Auburn 16 USC 7
Dec. 28, 1985 Ohio State 10 BYU 7
Dec. 22, 1984 Florida State 17 Georgia 17
Dec. 17, 1983 Tennessee 30 Maryland 23
Dec. 18, 1982 Auburn 33 Boston College 26
Dec. 19, 1981 Missouri 19 Southern Miss 17
Dec. 20, 1980 Florida 35 Maryland 20
Dec. 22, 1979 LSU 34 Wake Forest 10
Dec. 23, 1978 N.C. State 30 Pittsburgh 17
Dec. 23, 1977 Florida State 40 Texas Tech 17
Dec. 18, 1976 Oklahoma State 49 BYU 21
Dec. 20, 1975 Miami Univ. 20 South Carolina 7
Dec. 21, 1974 Miami Univ. 21 Georgia 10
Dec. 22, 1973 Miami Univ. 16 Florida 7
Dec. 29, 1972 Tampa 21 Kent State 18
Dec. 28, 1971 Toledo 28 Richmond 3
Dec. 28, 1970 Toledo 40 William & Mary 12
Dec. 26, 1969 Toledo 56 Davidson 33
Dec. 27, 1968 Richmond 49 Ohio 42
Dec. 16, 1967 Tennessee-Martin 25 West Chester 8
Dec. 10, 1966 Morgan State 14 West Chester 6
Dec. 11, 1965 East Carolina 31 Maine 0
Dec. 12, 1964 East Carolina 14 Massachusetts 13
Dec. 28, 1963 Western Kentucky 27 Coast Guard 0
Dec. 22, 1962 Houston 49 Miami Univ. 21
Dec. 29, 1961 Lamar 21 Middle Tennessee 14
Dec. 30, 1960 The Citadel 27 Tennessee Tech 0
Jan. 1, 1960 Middle Tennessee 21 Presbyerian 9
Dec. 27, 1958 Texas A&M Commerce 26 Missouri Valley 7
Jan. 1, 1958 Texas A&M Commerce 10 Southern Miss 9
Jan. 1, 1957 West Texas 20 Southern Miss 13
Jan. 2, 1956 Juniata 6 Missouri Valley 7
Jan. 1, 1955 Omaha 7 Eastern Kentucky 6
Jan. 1, 1954 Arkansas State 7 Texas A&M Commerce 7
Jan. 1, 1953 Texas A&M Commerce 33 Tennessee Tech 10
Jan. 1, 1952 Stetson 35 Arkansas State 20
Jan. 1, 1951 Charleston 35 Emory & Henry 14
Jan. 2, 1950 St. Vincent’s 7 Emory & Henry 6
Jan. 1, 1949 Murray State 21 Sul Ross State 21
Jan. 1, 1948 Catawba 7 Marshall 0
Jan. 1, 1947 Catawba 31 Maryville 0
