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Roll Call
Niels Lesniewski

At the Races: What’s in a bill?

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday joined with rapper Nicki Minaj and top congressional Republicans to promote the new “Trump accounts,” which parents can open for newborns and receive a seed contribution of $1,000 from the federal government — effectively an early-start savings vehicle for children.

Minaj, appearing at the event, billed herself the president’s “No. 1 fan.”

It’s one of the policies in the 2025 reconciliation law dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill that enacted many of the president’s signature campaign promises. The law includes provisions excluding some tipped income from taxes, as well as increasing the deduction cap for state and local taxes.

But the same law that produced the Trump accounts and the tax cuts also included nearly $170 billion in increased immigration enforcement funding. Without that, the surge in federal enforcement operations seen in Minnesota and other states that has sparked protests and deadly shootings might not have been possible.

The president and Republicans in Congress saw a mandate out of the 2024 election for more stringent border security measures and immigration enforcement actions than what had taken place under President Joe Biden. But things appear to have shifted since, with growing disapproval of recent actions by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency in particular.

According to a Jan. 23-26 Economist/YouGov survey, 55 percent of Americans said they had “very little” confidence in ICE, with a narrow majority also calling for cuts in agency funding, either by “a lot” (39 percent) or “slightly” (12 percent). 

Against that backdrop, at least for the moment, this part of the One Big Beautiful Bill might represent a vulnerability for certain Republicans in the midterm elections — even if the tax provisions prove more popular.

Starting gate

#MNGOV: Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar launched her bid for governor of Minnesota, which has been thrust into the national spotlight by protests over the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state. Klobuchar is the fourth incumbent senator to run for governor this year. 

Buckeye State hopes: Ohio has gone from a patchwork of purple to a swath of deep crimson over the past decade, but this year, Democrats are hoping to flip several House seats that have long been out of their grasp.  

Hawkeye State hopes: Trump visited Iowa this week, selling his economic message and pleading with farmers to give his tariffs more time, our colleague John T. Bennett reports

Jersey special: Democrats in New Jersey’s 11th District will pick their nominee in next week’s special election to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill in the House. Of the 11 candidates in the primary field, four have attracted the most attention

ICE debate hits campaign: The nationwide attention on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement after two fatal shootings this month in Minneapolis has become a central point of debate in contested Senate primaries around the country. 

D.C. delegate race: Longtime D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton announced her retirement this week, days after filing paperwork to end her reelection campaign. Two former aides are among several Democrats looking to succeed her in the House, as Roll Call’s Nina Heller reports, and both Robert White and Trent Holbrook argue their experience working for Norton has prepared them to serve as the capital city’s nonvoting House member. 

Coming and going in Florida: Longtime Rep. Vern Buchanan announced he won’t seek reelection this year, opening up what should be the safe Republican 16th District in southwest Florida. Meanwhile, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who was a key witness at Trump’s first impeachment trial and whose brother is Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman, is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge appointed Florida Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, our colleague Nick Eskow reports. 

Another comeback bid: Former New York Rep. Chris Collins is the latest former House member to announce a comeback bid, joining the Republican primary to succeed Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, who’s running for governor. Collins, who was pardoned by Trump after an insider trading scandal, is one of several contenders for the 19th District who’ve sought offices from other states.

Virginia redistricting: Virginia Democrats hit a roadblock in their efforts to draw new congressional lines this year when a state judge sided with Republican state lawmakers, ruling that the legislature broke its own rules when it began a referendum process during a special session last fall, our colleague Michael Macagnone reports. Virginia Democrats have said they would appeal the ruling.

ICYMI

‘Complete and Total’: The president rolled out a slew of endorsements over the past week. Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity and Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany won his support for their gubernatorial bids in their respective states. Trump is also backing “MAGA Warrior” Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who is running to succeed Tiffany. Also winning endorsements were former Iowa state Rep. Joe Mitchell, the Gen Z Republican running for the state’s open 2nd District; Indiana Reps. Jim Baird and Victoria Spartz, who both face primary challengers; and five Indiana candidates seeking the seats of GOP state senators who opposed his push for mid-decade redistricting. 

Democratic endorsements: The campaign arm of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition is backing a pair of Texas Democrats: Tejano singer Bobby Pulido in the 15th District and Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia in the 35th District. Also in the Lone Star State, EMILY’s List is backing Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Senate primary and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa’s bid for governor. In Massachusetts, Leaders We Deserve, the group co-founded by former DNC vice chair David Hogg, is supporting attorney Patrick Roath, who is challenging Rep. Stephen F. Lynch in the 8th District primary. In Maryland, retiring Rep. Steny H. Hoyer endorsed state Del. Adrian Boafo, his former campaign manager, to succeed him in the 5th District. And in California’s 7th District, the progressive group Justice Democrats is backing Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang’s primary challenge to Rep. Doris Matsui. Meanwhile, Democratic Reps. Nydia M. Velázquez and Teresa Leger Fernández endorsed Mayra Macías, an independent candidate running for Illinois’ 4th District.

Iowa updates: Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst dropped her bid for Iowa’s 3rd District and endorsed state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott in the race to take on Republican Rep. Zach Nunn. In the 1st District, Democrat Taylor Wettach ended his run and will instead run for state auditor. And Republican state Rep. Shannon Lundgren announced she would run for reelection rather than continue her campaign for the 2nd District, shortly before Trump weighed in on the race. 

#LASEN: Louisiana state Rep. Julie Emerson dropped her challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy after Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow in the Republican primary. In New Jersey, Somerset County Commissioner Sara Sooy ended her campaign for the 7th District and endorsed Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett in the Democratic race to take on GOP Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr.

#LA05: Republican former Rep. Garret Graves, who’d been seen as a potential front-runner to succeed Letlow in the House, announced he would not enter the GOP primary for the deep-red 5th District. “This is not the time or office that makes sense,” the former congressman said in a statement

Primary launches: In South Carolina’s 4th District, GOP Rep. William R. Timmons IV drew an intraparty challenge from businessman David Atchley. Timmons narrowly secured the Republican nod in 2024 after a contested primary. In New Jersey’s 8th District, Democratic Rep. Rob Menendez faces a primary challenge for the second straight cycle, this time from former school board president Mussab Ali.

#MESEN: Democrat Graham Platner’s Senate campaign said it would be running television ads from this week through the June primary. Platner’s campaign released a 60-second spot this week criticizing longtime Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins.

Guv roundup: San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is the latest Democrat to join the crammed all-party primary in California to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. In Michigan, businessman Perry Johnson, a 2024 Republican presidential contender, announced a second bid for governor. Johnson ran for the office in 2022 but was disqualified, along with several other GOP hopefuls, in a signature-gathering scandal. In Oregon, the Republican primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek grew with the entry of former NBA player Chris Dudley, who narrowly lost a 2010 gubernatorial bid. In Minnesota, attorney Chris Madel ended his brief campaign for the GOP nomination a day after a second person was shot and killed by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis. Madel said he couldn’t “support the national Republicans’ stated retribution on the citizens of our state nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.” And in neighboring Wisconsin, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann dropped out of the Republican gubernatorial primary after Trump endorsed Tiffany.

Nathan’s notes

In a new opinion piece, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales digs into five things Trump or his team said about the midterm elections and why those remarks should be taken seriously. 

What we’re reading

Liberals vs. leftists: The Boston Globe visited the Western Massachusetts college town of Northampton, a hotbed of left-on-left rancor.  

MAHA moment: Some Republicans think Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s healthy food agenda could be a boon for the party in this year’s midterm elections, Politico reports. But while some Democrats acknowledge the positives of his healthy eating agenda, they argue it’s not enough of a counter to his opposition to vaccines. 

Walking in Memphis: The Democratic primary between 10-term Rep. Steve Cohen and his 31-year-old challenger, state Rep. Justin Pearson, is already creating tension for Tennessee Democrats, NOTUS reports. Pearson is one of the highest-profile challengers to an older House Democrat in a year when several face younger primary opponents. 

End of an alliance: The Lexington Herald-Leader looks at fraying ties between former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and Sen. Mitch McConnell, a onetime mentor he’s trying to succeed in Congress. Cameron says McConnell’s fundraising network is backing Rep. Andy Barr, one of Cameron’s GOP opponents in the Republican primary. 

Master of the Senate: Texas Monthly dropped a lengthy profile of Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whose struggles with his party’s activist wing are playing out in a contentious, three-way primary as he seeks a fifth term this year.

The count: 3 percent

That’s how many Americans said Congress was doing an “excellent” job when it comes to oversight of the executive branch, according to the aforementioned Economist/YouGov poll. That’s less than the 21 percent who said Congress should not provide oversight, the survey found.

In total, a majority of poll respondents said federal lawmakers were doing a “poor” (41 percent) or “fair” (13 percent) job in overseeing the executive branch. 

Coming up

Voters in Texas’ 18th District will elect their next member of Congress in Saturday’s special election runoff between Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards. The seat has been vacant since the March death of Rep. Sylvester Turner. 

Also Saturday, campaign fundraising reports for the fourth quarter of 2025 are due by the end of the day with the Federal Election Commission. 

Photo finish

Sen. Amy Klobuchar reacts as she uncovers one of the entries at the Minnesota congressional delegation’s “hotdish” competition on Capitol Hill in April 2019. Also pictured is Sen. Tina Smith, center, and Rep. Angie Craig. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the Races: What’s in a bill? appeared first on Roll Call.

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