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The escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the possibility that President Donald Trump could get the United States directly involved, is a reminder that foreign policy is not front and center in the minds of voters — until it is.
There’s a big difference between hypothetical support for engaging in a conflict — or, say, speaking approvingly about action to halt Iranian nuclear weapons development — and actually committing American blood and treasure toward achieving the objective.
The potential for U.S. involvement is already exposing rifts within the president’s MAGA base, as our colleague John T. Bennett reported.
Meanwhile, the Senate Republican Conference, led by Arkansas’ Tom Cotton, has shared polling data that shows 2024 Trump voters supportive of action against Iran, Punchbowl News reported. Specifically, 72 percent were either strongly or somewhat in favor of the U.S. “taking its own direct military action, if necessary, to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons,” according to the poll. Nineteen percent were either strongly or somewhat opposed.
For senators, a key test vote on the topic could come as early as next week. It’s the kind of vote that will make not just our CQ Roll Call scorecards but also feature in the fine print at the bottom of campaign and “issue advocacy” ads all over the country if Trump does commit to military action, especially if the costs are high and public opinion is against it.
A resolution from Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine would seek to put senators on record against the United States engaging in hostilities with Iran without congressional authorization.
“I happen to believe that the United States engaging in a war against Iran — a third war in the Middle East since 2001 — would be a catastrophic blunder for this country,” the Democrat said. “I think there are some in this body who have a different point of view than me on that point, but I think we should all be able to agree in the fundamental constitutional principle that says we shouldn’t be in a war if Congress doesn’t have the guts to debate it and vote on it.”
A similar House resolution, introduced by Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, has an eclectic collection of backers, including New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
“The people who tell you we do have war money, but don’t have healthcare money, infrastructure money, or Green New Deal money are playing games with you,” Ocasio-Cortez’s political team said in a message to supporters Tuesday evening.
That could become a common refrain among Democrats, given the scope of domestic spending cuts proposed by Trump and the Republican majorities in Congress.
Starting gate
Sprint for a special election: The campaign for the Democratic nomination for the special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerald E. Connolly in Virginia’s deep-blue 11th District is in full swing. A crowded field of candidates has less than a month to woo enough voters to win the party-run “firehouse primary” 10 days from now.
Bohannan is in: Iowa Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost to Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 799 votes last year, is making a third run for the seat. The law professor and former engineer who served a term in the Iowa House signaled she will seek to tie Miller-Meeks to the Trump agenda.
Menendez’s fall from grace: Former New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez began an 11-year sentence in federal prison in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Roll Call’s Ryan Tarinelli reports. The Democrat, who chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, had appeared to be angling for a pardon from Trump in the lead-up to his surrender.
Security spending: Security for members of Congress could become a focal point as lawmakers proceed with crafting spending bills for the next fiscal year on the heels of the assassination last weekend of a Minnesota state lawmaker and her husband, our colleagues Justin Papp and Jim Saksa report. The alleged killer reportedly had the names of congressional lawmakers on his target list. But former Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger told Roll Call that not all members take full advantage of current security measures available to them.
Happy anniversary: Roll Call celebrates its 70th anniversary this year! Our first print edition hit the Capitol on June 16, 1955. Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick and former editor-and-chief and Roll Call columnist Christina Bellantoni look back over the past few decades, in Congress and the newspaper. While the At the Races newsletter hasn’t been around for quite as long, we remain grateful to our readers for your support and letting us be part of your week.
ICYMI
Virginia results: The November general elections for Virginia’s three statewide offices are set after Tuesday’s primaries. Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears were both unopposed for their parties’ gubernatorial nods. In the race for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi won a crowded Democratic primary to take on Republican radio host John Reid. And Democratic former state Del. Jay Jones prevailed in a tight primary for attorney general to face off against Republican incumbent Jason Miyares.
Backing scientists: 314 Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates with science backgrounds, has announced three new endorsements: Bohannan; pediatrician Annie Andrews, who’s challenging South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham; and Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health who’s running for the Buckeye State’s governorship.
#ILSEN: Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s campaign released a poll showing him with a 13-point lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, his closest competitor in the Democratic primary for the state’s open Senate seat; 31 percent of voters were undecided.
Snowbird for Congress: Former New York Rep. Chris Collins told a Buffalo radio station that he’s running for Congress — from Florida. Collins, who received a pardon from Trump two months into his prison term for securities fraud, is seeking to represent the deep-red 19th District, which Republican Byron Donalds is vacating to run for governor.
They’re running: Florida Democrat Josh Weil, who lost a high-profile House special election in April, announced Wednesday that he will challenge appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody. In Virginia, Republican state Sen. Tara Durant launched a campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman in the 7th District. In Michigan, Democrat Bridget Brink, who recently resigned as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is running in the 7th District against GOP freshman Tom Barrett. In the open 10th District, outside Detroit, Navy and Army veteran Tripp Adams has joined a crowded Democratic primary to succeed Republican incumbent John James, who is running for governor.
Texas primaries: Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who survived a primary challenge by just over 350 votes last year, could face another competitive contest for the GOP nomination next year in Texas’ 23rd District. Rancher Susan Storey Rubio entered the primary last week, slamming the incumbent as a “spineless moderate.” And Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who switched to the GOP late last year, announced Wednesday that he is exploring a bid for Texas’ 28th District, held by longtime Democratic moderate Henry Cuellar. Former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores is also seeking the seat.
#LASEN: Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez on Wednesday launched a primary challenge against Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, saying he would be a stronger Trump ally than Cassidy and criticizing him for his 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial. Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming is already in the GOP race.
Super PAC spending: Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders led a group of seven other senators calling for Democrats to break from super PACs and “dark money” in party primaries, The Washington Post reports.
Endorsement watch: Iowa state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott has picked up the support of The Next 50 PAC, which backs younger Democrats running for competitive seats. Trone Garriott is seeking to oust Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in the Des Moines-centered 3rd District, but first she’ll have to prevail over former House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst in the Democratic primary.
Guv roundup: Former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard has entered the crowded Republican primary to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In South Carolina, four-term state Attorney General Alan Wilson is expected to launch his campaign for the open governorship on Monday. Kansas state Sen. Cindy Holscher is the first major Democrat to announce a gubernatorial run. And Mississippi Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson has also declared a bid for governor — in 2027, when Republican incumbent Tate Reeves will be ineligible for a third term.
Nathan’s notes
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections takes a walk down memory lane as part of our 70th anniversary commemorations. Nathan writes about the influence this publication has had on the political landscape over the years and shares a few memorable stories from his more than two decades at Roll Call.
(Fun fact: The senior member of the At the Races team has been here so long that he was interviewing for a job at Roll Call just as John McArdle was breaking the story of Idaho Sen. Larry E. Craig’s airport restroom incident.)
What we’re reading
Rolling back rights: Delaware Rep. Sarah McBride, the first openly transgender member of Congress, told The New York Times that the eroding support for transgender rights can be traced to a “false sense of security” that took hold within the LGBTQ movement after the legalization of gay marriage. “The support that we saw for trans rights in 2016, 2017 — it was a mirage of support in some ways,” McBride said.
Remembering Hortman: Former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated along with her husband in their home in the gruesome shootings over the weekend, is being remembered as a particularly consequential leader in the state, as Roll Call alumna Torey Van Oot reports for Axios Twin Cities.
Obama speaks: The former president delivered a cautious warning about the risks to democracy in a Tuesday speech in Connecticut, The Hartford Courant reports.
Cuomo’s comeback: They once denounced him as unfit for public office, but now a broad swath of New York’s power elite is backing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral campaign. Politico looked at Cuomo’s onetime critics — including members of Congress, state lawmakers and city leaders — who have endorsed a man they once condemned.
The count: 11
That’s how many governor’s races in Virginia have gone against the president’s party in the past 12 elections, going back to 1977.
Democratic nominee Spanberger would like to keep the trend going this November, while Earle-Sears, her Republican opponent, will try to join Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe as an outlier. McAuliffe was elected in 2013 while Barack Obama was president.
Coming up
The House returns from its Juneteenth recess next week, while New York City Democrats will pick their nominee for mayor in a Tuesday primary.
It may be days before we get final results from the Big Apple, however. Voters will rank up to five candidates on the ballot, and if no one gets a majority of the vote on the first round, ranked choice voting will be used to determine the winner. Those tabulations aren’t expected to be released until at least a week after election night.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: The politics of war appeared first on Roll Call.
