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Mary Ellen McIntire

At the Races: The Art of the Sale - Roll Call

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

By Daniela Altimari, Mary Ellen McIntire and Niels Lesniewski

The White House kicked off the effort to sell its mammoth tax and spending bill into high gear this week, with both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance making separate trips to Pennsylvania to tout the tax-cutting provisions nested within the new law.

“Think of it, the biggest tax cut in history, and we didn’t get a Democrat vote,” Trump said in Pittsburgh. “And so many other things: no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime.”

Vance made a similar pitch during a stop in northeastern Pennsylvania, but he ignored less popular elements of the legislation such as cuts to Medicaid that critics say could devastate rural hospitals and leave millions without insurance.

The messaging provides an early look at Republican efforts to frame the law in advance of the midterm elections. But the push faces significant headwinds: Almost 6 in 10 Americans oppose the sweeping measure, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

The law has faced a relentless onslaught of attacks from Democrats and even some of the president’s allies are scrambling to modify parts of the legislation, Roll Call’s Sandhya Raman reports.

The GOP’s sales pitch faces another hurdle as well: Trump’s own inability to stay on topic. That was evident in Pennsylvania, as our colleague John T. Bennett reports

“Trump diverged from his message about new jobs to drift into what he calls ‘the weave,’ a speaking style that includes insults about political foes and culture war-fueling lines,” Bennett wrote.

Targets of his ire this week included “Sleepy Joe,” his derisive nickname for his predecessor. And on Wednesday, he went after his own MAGA base, lashing out at critics of his Justice Department’s handling of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, the late disgraced financier and convicted sex offender.

Starting gate

Show us the money: Candidates’ second-quarter fundraising reports, which were due this week to the Federal Election Commission, revealed that House Republicans in battleground races continue to raise big sums, as does vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia. We pored over the reports and came up with our takeaways here.

Still spending: She left the Senate more than six months ago, but Arizona independent Kyrsten Sinema continues to lay out campaign funds on festivals, wineries and ski trips, her latest campaign filings show. 

Grijalva prevails in primary: Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of the late Arizona Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva, cruised to victory Tuesday in the Democratic primary for the special election for Arizona’s deep-blue 7th District. She’ll be the heavy favorite in the Sept. 23 general election to fill her father’s unexpired term.

Back for a rematch: Democrat Janelle Stelson has launched a second challenge to Republican Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th District after losing to the former House Freedom Caucus chair by just over a percentage point last year. Stelson is set to appear with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at her first official campaign event Thursday. 

Nunn says no: Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is forgoing a run for Iowa governor, a development that was broken by Trump on his Truth Social platform. Instead, Nunn will seek reelection to his Des Moines-centered 3rd District, a House battleground.

Congressional comeback: Former Tennessee Rep. Van Hilleary, who most recently served as Rep. John W. Rose’s chief of staff, has entered the Republican race to succeed his former boss, Roll Call’s Victor Feldman reports. At least three other Republicans are also seeking to succeed Rose, who is vacating his 6th District seat to run for governor. 

Big, beautiful website: The Democratic National Committee unveiled a new website Wednesday breaking down state by state what Democrats say are the costs of the massive tax and spending law enacted by Republicans earlier this month. The DNC will support the new site with digital ads in swing states and rural areas and billboards in areas where rural hospitals are at risk of closure.

This congressional life: Mary Ellen joined Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on the latest “Political Theater” podcast to talk about what happens when Congress tries to do too much in a short period of time amid Republicans’ quest to sell the “big, beautiful” law.

ICYMI

Tennessee special: Tennessee state Rep. Jay Reedy reversed course and said he wouldn’t run in the forthcoming special election in the 7th District to succeed GOP Rep. Mark E. Green, whose resignation is set to take effect this weekend. His announcement came after Green endorsed Army veteran and former state Cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps to succeed him. 

Virginia’s off-year contests: The DNC has made an initial $1.5 million investment into the Virginia Democratic Coordinated Campaign ahead of statewide and legislative elections in the commonwealth in November. The investment will go toward hiring organizers and to “test new tactics and tools to ensure our message is resonating,” according to The Washington Post. 

#NHSEN: New Hampshire state Sen. Dan Innis entered the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, setting up a GOP primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown. Innis previously ran, unsuccessfully, for the state’s 1st District House seat. 

Redistricting fights: As Texas Republicans look to redraw the state’s congressional map in an attempt to help their party pick up as many as five seats next year, California Democrats, in response, are embarking on what Punchbowl News calls “an ambitious and potentially expensive plan” to do the same in the Golden State.  

House battleground launches: California state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a Democrat, is challenging Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley-based 22nd District. In Michigan, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann is running for the 4th District, a seat on the DCCC’s target list currently held by Republican Bill Huizenga, who is considering a Senate run. Also in the Wolverine State, Navy veteran Amir Hassan became the first Republican to challenge Democratic freshman Kristen McDonald-Rivet in the 8th District. In Nebraska’s newly open 2nd District, Kishla Askins, a physician assistant with a 30-year career in the Navy, joined the increasingly crowded field of Democrats seeking to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon. In Arizona, the busy Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert in the 1st District got busier this week with the entry of DNC member Mark Robert Gordon. In South Texas, Democrat Ada Cuellar, an emergency room physician, is running against Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. And in Colorado, Jessica Killin, who served as chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, announced a run against Republican freshman Jeff Crank in the 5th District. 

#TX02: Republican Rep. Daniel Crenshaw has drawn yet another primary challenge from the right in Texas’ 2nd District, with state Rep. Steve Toth entering the race this week. Toth previously challenged former Texas Rep. Kevin Brady in a 2016 primary. 

#ME02: Maine Rep. Jared Golden’s campaign shared internal polling showing the Democrat effectively tied with former Gov. Paul LePage, his likely Republican challenger in the right-leaning 2nd District. Golden was at 44 percent, while LePage took 43 percent. Maine Auditor Matt Dunlap is considering a primary challenge to Golden. 

Guv roundup: South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette became the third Republican to launch a campaign to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Henry McMaster. In Maine, health tech entrepreneur Jonathan Bush, the nephew of former President George H.W. Bush, is exploring a bid for governor as a Republican. And in Connecticut, state Rep. Josh Elliott has entered the Democratic primary for governor, where he could face incumbent Ned Lamont, who hasn’t yet said whether he’ll seek a third term.

Nathan’s notes

Every time Republicans are electing a new speaker, party operatives fret about prospective candidates’ ability to match the fundraising prowess of the previous speaker. But Mike Johnson’s record-setting fundraising haul for the second quarter shows it’s time to put this Beltway habit to rest, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes. 

What we’re reading

Stu says: Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg takes a look at another member of the Bush political dynasty: George P. Bush, a former Texas land commissioner and grandson of the late President George H.W. Bush. He could be a candidate for public office again, Rothenberg writes, but in the modern GOP his family name is no longer the asset it once was.

A brush with mortality: The Associated Press examines how last year’s near-assassination in Butler, Pa., has changed Trump. Friends and aides say he’s more grateful and guarded and often “speaks openly about how he believes he was saved by God to save the country and serve a second term.”

Senator, keyboard warrior, church member: Politico reports on the tension between Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who has emerged as a close Trump ally, and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, known widely as the Mormon church. 

Evil is everywhere: Trump has taken to calling people he disagrees with or dislikes “evil,” which The New York Times says “is a word getting a lot of airtime in the second Trump term.” Compare that to President George H.W. Bush once apologizing for describing his challengers as “bozos” and you can see how our politics have changed over the past three decades.  

The politics of Love Island: Three-and-a-half million people voted after one episode of “Love Island.” The 19th asked a Democratic operative what the popular Peacock reality show can teach candidates about voter turnout.

The count: 99.993% 

That’s the drop in the average daily financial support that national Republicans got from Elon Musk last quarter, compared with the last six months of the 2024 campaign cycle. 

Since July 3 of last year, Musk has spent nearly $300 million to support Trump’s presidential campaign and his Republican backers. He campaigned around the country alongside Trump and his allies, spending an average of $1.5 million a day over the final six-month stretch of the campaign.

In the first quarter of 2025, Musk personally cut $147,500 in checks to 22 congressional Republican campaign committees, which worked out to about $1,639 a day over the three-month period. 

On the first day of the second quarter, Musk contributed a combined $9,900 to the campaigns of House Republicans Barry Moore of Alabama and Ken Calvert of California. They would be his final donations for the quarter. 

A week later, Musk publicly slammed Trump’s tariffs and called the president’s top trade adviser a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.” Later in the month, he signaled that his financial support for candidates had ended, saying, “If I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it. … But I don’t currently see a reason.”

By the end of the quarter, the checks had stopped — and Musk was vowing to unseat former allies if they voted for the sweeping budget reconciliation measure he repeatedly slammed for adding trillions to the national debt. 

Every Republican whom Musk had previously backed, in both the House and the Senate, brushed aside his threats and voted to clear the bill for Trump’s signature.

Musk has since announced the formation of the “America Party” to take on the “one-party system.”

— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Coming up

We’re a long way off from the 2028 presidential primaries, but the parade of prospective candidates making appearances in early-voting states continues, with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin giving the keynote address Thursday night at the Iowa GOP’s annual Lincoln Dinner.

Photo finish

Senate candidate Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota bats Wednesday during the Congressional Women’s Softball Game at Audi Field in Washington. The annual event pits female members of Congress against the women of the Capitol Press Corps to raise money for young adult breast cancer. The lawmakers’ team walked away the winners this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the Races: The Art of the Sale appeared first on Roll Call.

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