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As the Year of the Fire Horse arrives, President Donald Trump is thus far declining once again to pick just one horse in a key Republican primary contest.
Early voting is underway in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn is facing state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in the fight of his political life.
“They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one, but we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump told reporters traveling on Air Force One on Monday night.
The most recent University of Houston Hobby School poll pointed toward a May runoff, with Paxton at 38 percent, Cornyn at 31 percent and Hunt at 17 percent. Paxton has even been making the case to reporters that he may win without a runoff, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported.
“I respect the president,” Paxton said Tuesday. “I love Donald Trump. Donald Trump will do what’s best for the country, and if he feels like it’s time to come to the race, he’ll come to the race.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is backing Cornyn, which is no surprise as party committees generally back incumbents, and the senator himself is a former NRSC chairman. But the campaign committee also argues he’s the only Republican with a clear path to defeat either Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico in the general election.
“Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt have repeatedly gone AWOL when President Trump needed them most,” NRSC spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement.
Trump doesn’t always pick sides, especially in cases where there isn’t an established front-runner. He famously backed “Eric” in the Missouri Senate race in the 2022 cycle — both Republican contenders shared that first name.
Over the past week, a couple of joint endorsements from Trump have come into focus.
In Arizona’s gubernatorial contest, he first endorsed 2022 candidate Karrin Taylor Robson before also backing Rep. Andy Biggs after an outcry from the GOP’s MAGA wing. Trailing in the polls, Robson ended her bid last week, saying the party “could not afford a divisive Republican primary.”
Rep. David Schweikert remains in the GOP race with Biggs, and the contest to succeed him in the 1st District also attracted two endorsements from Trump. He first backed former Arizona GOP chair Gina Swoboda, drawing opprobrium from her intraparty critics, before also endorsing former NFL kicker Jay Feely.
Swoboda announced Friday that she was switching contests and would run for secretary of state.
Starting gate
#VARedistricting: A Virginia judge has sided with national and local Republicans who challenged the Democrat-led attempt to let voters weigh in on a new congressional map this spring, our colleague Michael Macagnone reports. The ruling, which is likely to be appealed, temporarily stops election officials from carrying out the April redistricting referendum, which the commonwealth’s Supreme Court last week allowed to go forward while a separate Republican-led legal challenge continues. Virginia Democrats, meanwhile, are eyeing further tweaks to the map, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported, and candidates continue to announce plans, with Democratic Del. Dan Helmer, who ran for the House in 2018 and 2024, launching a bid this week for the newly proposed 7th District.
No to a new map: New York Rep. Nicole Malliotakis joined with Republican state officials to ask the U.S. Supreme Court to stop a state court order to redraw her Staten Island-anchored district before the November election, Macagnone reported. New York Democrats urged the justices not to intervene in court filings Thursday, the same day a state appeals court panel ordered New York’s redistricting commission to redraw the 11th District, according to the New York Daily News.
Trump on the trail: The president’s stop Thursday in Georgia comes at a time when Trump and his congressional allies are calling for a refined economic message ahead of the midterms, our colleague John T. Bennett reported earlier this week. Trump’s visit to the 14th District also came less than three weeks before a special election to select a successor to ally-turned-adversary Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned in January. Trump has endorsed former local prosecutor Clay Fuller.
RIP: The Rev. Jesse Jackson, a champion for civil rights who made two historic bids for the presidency, died Tuesday at age 84. Roll Call’s Chris Hale dug into our photo archives for glimpses into Jackson’s time on Capitol Hill and on the campaign trail.
ICYMI
More Trump endorsements: The president this week rolled out more endorsements in Republican primaries for open seats in Texas. Candidates receiving his backing include former Ted Cruz staffer Jessica Hart Steinmann in the 8th District, West Point graduate Alex Mealer in the 9th, mortgage officer and Baptist deacon Jon Bonck in the 38th and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, in the 35th.
Endorsement pulled: The San Antonio Express-News editorial board has rescinded its endorsement of Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in Texas’ 23rd District after the paper reported on a text message that allegedly confirmed an affair between the congressman and an aide, who later committed suicide. Gonzales has accused primary opponent Brandon Herrera of politicizing the woman’s death and suggested in a social media post Thursday that he was being “blackmailed” by the attorney representing the aide’s widower. Herrera, who lost to Gonzales by 354 votes in a GOP runoff last cycle, has called on the incumbent to resign.
Senate endorsements: Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry is backing Rep. Julia Letlow in her increasingly bitter primary battle against Sen. Bill Cassidy, the Shreveport Times reported. In Alabama, Vice President JD Vance is backing Rep. Barry Moore for the state’s open Senate seat. On the Democratic side, Maryland Sen. Angela Alsobrooks endorsed Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in their respective Senate races, while New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker announced he’s backing Rep. Robin Kelly in Illinois. And in the Democratic primary for the open Senate seat in Michigan, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow won the backing of Vermont Sen. Peter Welch, while former Wayne County public health official Abdul El-Sayed has another House progressive in his corner, with Pennsylvania Rep. Summer Lee endorsing his campaign.
Dropping out: In Iowa, Marine and Army veteran Nathan Sage has ended his campaign for the Democratic Senate nomination and endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek. In Louisiana, Republican Eric Skrmetta, a member of the state’s Public Service Commission, has concluded his Senate run and is now backing Letlow. And in Texas’ 8th District, businessman Brett Jensen dropped out of the GOP primary after Trump endorsed Steinmann.
Getting in: Rapper Luther Campbell, better known as Uncle Luke, has launched a Democratic primary challenge against Florida Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who was indicted last fall on federal campaign fraud charges. Campbell joins a growing group of Democrats challenging the embattled congresswoman in the deep-blue 20th District.
Switching races: In Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Pinsley, the Lehigh County controller, is giving up his run for the 7th District and will run for state Senate instead.
Redistricting … for 2028: A new group in Colorado is eyeing a ballot referendum this November to let voters decide whether to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2028 elections. The group, Coloradans for a Level Playing Field, argues that Colorado must join other Democrat-led states to counter Republican-led redistricting efforts this year. Colorado’s eight-member House delegation is currently evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
Back to state politics: Republican former Rep. Marc Molinaro is leaving his role as administrator of the Federal Transit Administration at the end of this week and will run for a New York State Assembly seat, the Times-Union of Albany reports.
#NHGOV: Democrat Cinde Warmington, an elected member of the New Hampshire Executive Council, announced a second bid for governor this week, challenging GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte. Warmington lost the 2024 Democratic primary to former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, whom Ayotte went on to defeat by 9 points.
Nathan’s notes
While Cornyn remains in the hunt for a fifth Senate term, his reelection prospects may have worsened since last fall, according to Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. And barring any major development, Cornyn enters the March 3 primary as the decided underdog, Nathan writes.
What we’re reading
AIPAC under scrutiny: Some Chicago-area Democrats are accusing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee of masking its involvement in several Democratic primaries for House seats set for next month, The Washington Post reports.
Right turn ahead: Marine veteran Brian Shortsleeve was a venture capitalist, Republican moderate and ally of former Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. But facing a competitive Republican primary in his bid for the Bay State’s top office, Shortsleeve has tacked right, according to WGBH.
Crossing the aisle: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor, and his Democratic wife, Susanne Shore, have long been on opposing sides of major issues. But the two have recently found agreement on one candidate: Shore, who is running for a seat on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents. The Nebraska Examiner catches up with the “political odd couple.”
Test of power: The Texas Tribune examines Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsements this cycle, including several of his choices who are facing challenging political headwinds.
Not Mamdani: Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman is a democratic socialist running for mayor of the nation’s second-largest city. But she also affirms Israel’s right to exist, two positions that could seem at odds with one another. The Forward details Raman’s attempts to bridge the divide and win over Jewish voters. Her first task: to convince them she’s not New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a fellow Indian American.
On thin ICE: NOTUS looks at how federal immigration enforcement actions that sparked violent protests against the administration have upended Democratic primaries across the country.
The count: 7 points
That’s the Democratic advantage on the congressional generic ballot, according to an Economist/YouGov poll released this week. Forty-seven percent of registered voters said they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were held today, while 40 percent would vote for the Republican. Ten percent were not sure, 1 percent would back another candidate and 2 percent would not vote.
Key race: Texas’ 35th District
Candidates: The newly redrawn San Antonio-area district has attracted a crowd of Republicans, including Carlos De La Cruz, whose sister represents a neighboring district; state Rep. John Lujan; former congressional aide Josh Cortez; IT trainer Ryan Krause; and Navy veteran Jay Furman, who lost to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District last cycle. Democrats competing for the seat include Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia and Marine veteran John Lira, who unsuccessfully challenged GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales in the 23rd District in 2022. The primary elections are March 3, and early voting began Tuesday.
Why it matters: The current 35th District is a skinny strip of bright blue stretching from Austin to San Antonio and is represented by progressive Democrat Greg Casar. But the district was one of five either altered or dismantled last summer by Republican state lawmakers at Trump’s direction to help the party gain seats and maintain its House majority. The new lines sliced off all of Austin from the district and added three heavily Republican counties. Casar has since switched to the deep-blue 37th District, where Rep. Lloyd Doggett retired to avoid a divisive primary.
Cash dash: Furman began the year with the biggest campaign war chest, with about $262,000 in his account. But that was after he made a $240,000 personal loan to his campaign. Krause’s filings show him loaning his effort more than $185,000, and he had $149,000 banked at Feb. 11, according to his pre-primary report. De La Cruz had $130,000 on hand and had loaned his campaign $50,000 through Dec. 31, while Lujan ended the year with around $76,000 in the bank. Among the Democrats, Garcia entered January with about $82,000 on hand, and Lira had about $11,000.
Backers: De La Cruz picked up a key prize this week in the contested GOP primary: Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.” Lujan has the backing of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and a slew of state lawmakers. Furman is touting the support of various Trump allies, including consultant Roger Stone and former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
What they’re saying: The day after Trump announced his endorsement, De La Cruz debuted an ad promoting the president’s support. Lujan’s introductory video recounts the night an intruder entered his home and cut his son’s neck. “I fought for my family. I’ll fight just as hard for yours,” he says in the video. Cortez has highlighted his deep roots in the state, which he says stretch back eight generations. Garcia, who serves as the public information officer for the sheriff’s office, has positioned himself as “an old-school Democrat” with working-class roots. Lira has highlighted his experience as a Marine serving in Iraq and an analyst for the Small Business Administration helping veterans launch businesses.
Terrain: The Central Texas district was redrawn to absorb Republican-heavy Guadalupe, Wilson and Karnes counties. According to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, Trump would have carried the new district by 10 points in 2024 but by only 2 points in 2020. Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican.
Wild card: While the boundaries of the 35th have been drawn to give the GOP an edge, the new district has shed fewer Democratic voters than other seats reconfigured to favor Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has placed the district on its list of targets for 2026.
Coming up
Trump is scheduled to deliver the first official State of the Union address of his second term Tuesday night at the Capitol, and all signs point toward it going ahead despite the current partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.
House Democrats are scheduled to hold their annual policy retreat in Leesburg, Va., next week, beginning Wednesday.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Sitting tight in Texas appeared first on Roll Call.
