Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
President Donald Trump declared this week that Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker “should be in jail” as tensions grow over his deployment of National Guard troops to the Land of Lincoln.
Even for a leader fixated on punishing his political enemies, Trump’s suggestion that two Democratic elected officials ought to be locked up marked a sharp escalation.
It’s yet another reminder that quaint notions of reaching across the aisle appear to have limited space in politics today. Trump’s sprawling retribution campaign has already ensnared another perceived enemy: former FBI Director James B. Comey, whose indictment last month was lauded by the president.
Of course, demonizing the opposition has a long history in American politics, from Hillary Clinton saying that half of Trump’s supporters belonged in a “basket of deplorables” to Richard Nixon keeping an enemies list.
But in our current era, the rhetoric has been turned way up. Witness the violent thoughts expressed by Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for Virginia attorney general.
The National Review unearthed messages sent by Jones to a Republican state legislator in 2022. In the texts, Jones contemplated a hypothetical scenario under which he would use a gun to give Republican Todd Gilbert, then the speaker of the House of Delegates, “two bullets to the head.” Jones also mused about the hypothetical deaths of Gilbert’s children.
Gone are the days when politicians boasted about reaching across the aisle to find common ground with their opponents and embraced political rhetoric designed to unite, not divide. The nation is grappling with a recent spate of political violence, including the killing of Minnesota House Democratic leader Melissa Hortman and her husband in their home, as well as last month’s murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk on a Utah college campus.
It’s hard to believe that just eight years ago, a political leader issued a rousing call for national unity and civic connection, declaring, “We are one nation. … We share one heart, one home and one glorious destiny.”
The speaker? Donald Trump.
Starting gate
Working-class heroes: Brawny guys with progressive politics, anti-establishment swagger and a toughness born of adversity — not to mention an affinity for tattoos, beards and flannel — are having a moment in the run-up to the midterm elections. But Democrats in 2026 also are counting on working-class women who are building campaigns around economic populism rooted in humble origin stories.
Primary challengers: Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson, who rose to national prominence after his expulsion from the state House over a gun control protest, is running for Congress, challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen in a Memphis-based district. And in Maine, vulnerable Rep. Jared Golden has drawn a primary challenge from his left, with state Auditor Matt Dunlap entering the race this week.
Van Epps gets primary nod: With the backing of President Donald Trump, Matt Van Epps cruised to the Republican nomination in the special election to succeed former Rep. Mark E. Green in Tennessee’s 7th District. The former state cabinet official will face Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn in December.
Senate launches: Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt joined an already contentious and costly Republican primary battle this week, saying he aims to provide voters with an alternative to both Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. In Kentucky, retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath launched a run for the state’s open Senate seat, five years after the Democrat lost a bid to unseat Republican Mitch McConnell by nearly 20 points despite spending nearly $90 million.
Comeback bid: Former Illinois Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. launched a comeback bid for his old seat, joining a crowded Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly, who’s running for Senate. If elected, he would serve alongside his brother, Rep. Jonathan L. Jackson, who represents the neighboring 1st District.
Redistricting latest: The GOP-led Utah Legislature, under court order, approved a new congressional map that could offer Democrats a chance to pick up at least one House seat in 2026. A district judge has until Nov. 10 to choose between the Legislature’s chosen map and those proposed by the plaintiffs who brought the lawsuit challenging the state’s current boundaries.
Mail-in ballot rules: The Supreme Court appeared ready during oral arguments Wednesday to allow a challenge led by Republican Rep. Mike Bost to an Illinois law that allows the counting of ballots up to 14 days after Election Day, our colleague Michael Macagnone reports.
Life after Congress: Ohio Republican Brad Wenstrup talks to Roll Call Managing Editor Jessica Wehrman about what he’s been up to since retiring from the House earlier this year, the latest dispatch in our recurring series on former lawmakers.
ICYMI
Turmoil in Virginia: The revelations about Jones’ past texts have reverberated beyond the race for attorney general of Virginia, where early voting has already begun. Democrats, including gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, have condemned the texts but stopped short of calling on Jones to drop out. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican nominee for governor, released ads slamming Spanberger for not calling on Jones to step aside, while Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares launched a $1.5 million ad buy over the texts. Recent polls from before the scandal broke have shown the Democratic statewide candidates leading.
Endorsement watch: EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights, picked sides in Illinois, endorsing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton over Rep. Robin Kelly for the state’s open Senate seat. The group also weighed in on the California governor’s race, backing former Rep. Katie Porter (before she was hit with a spate of negative headlines this week). Maggie’s List, a PAC dedicated to electing conservative women, is backing Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate and businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky in New Hampshire’s open 1st District. 314 Action, which backs Democrats with backgrounds in science, is supporting environmental attorney and state Rep. Manny Rutinel in Colorado’s 8th District and emergency room doctor Thomas Fisher in Illinois’ open 7th District. And Leaders We Deserve, which supports younger Democrats, rolled out new endorsements this week: Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney over Rep. Shri Thanedar in the 13th District Democratic primary; California local school board trustee Randy Villegas, who’s challenging GOP Rep. David Valadao; and Pearson, the Tennessee state legislator running against Cohen.
Ad campaigns: Conservative groups American Action Network and One Nation announced a six-figure ad campaign blaming “the lunatic left” for the government shutdown, with cable and digital spots running in the New York and Washington, D.C., media markets. The Republican Main Street Partnership, meanwhile, announced it would invest $500,000 in an ad campaign highlighting Rep. Zach Nunn, who represents a southwest Iowa swing district.
Battleground launches: In New York, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker announced a challenge to freshman Democrat Josh Riley in the 19th District. In New Mexico’s 2nd District, Republican Greg Cunningham, a former Albuquerque police detective who twice ran unsuccessfully for the state Legislature, is taking on Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez. In North Carolina’s 1st District, Eric Rouse, a Lenoir County commissioner, became the third Republican to announce a challenge against Democratic Rep. Don Davis. And in Southern California, Democratic freshman Derek Tran drew a new GOP challenger, with former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, who came to the U.S. as a child refugee, announcing a bid for the 45th District, Politico reported.
#NH02: New Hampshire freshman Maggie Goodlander has drawn a Democratic primary challenger from her left, with state Rep. Paige Beauchemin entering the race last week and promising to fight for Granite Staters with “disruptive compassion.”
#LASEN: Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy landed another primary challenger in Louisiana this week, with St. Tammany Parish Council member Kathy Seiden joining the race. All eyes continue to be on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will decide to primary the second-term senator, who angered many Trump allies with his vote to convict the president at his second impeachment.
More scions of the times: Marine veteran Beau Bayh, the son of Democratic former Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh and grandson of former Sen. Birch Bayh, has launched a bid for Indiana secretary of state, an office his dad once held. And in Maine, Jonathan Bush, a nephew of the late President George H.W. Bush, joined the busy Republican primary for the state’s open governor’s race. He’s the latest candidate from a political family to enter the contest, which already includes Democrats Hannah Pingree and Angus King III, whose parents both serve in Congress.
Nathan’s notes
Recent moves by Trump to mobilize National Guard soldiers in blue-leaning states and cities don’t bode well for our political stability, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales writes in an opinion piece this week, adding that the nation may even be in the early stages of a civil war.
In the short term, the divisiveness will have consequences in next year’s midterm elections, Nathan writes.
What we’re reading
Stu says: Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes that for Democrats to claim momentum going into 2026, they would need to win both the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races this fall.
The pope said what? Conservatives had hoped the first American pope would be a traditionalist, but they’ve been disappointed by recent stances taken by Pope Leo XIV, according to The Washington Post. The pontiff has pilloried market capitalism, condemned climate change denialism and called out indifference to the plight of migrants.
Town hall talk: Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ comment that she’d hold town hall meetings “when hell freezes over” is drawing ire back home. The GOP congresswoman, who is seeking reelection in one of the nation’s most competitive House districts, later told the Des Moines Register that Democrats were “trying to make an issue where there is not an issue.”
Clean up on I-5: In California, Porter, who’s been seen as a front-runner in the open governor’s race, is facing mounting criticism from both sides of the aisle after a disastrous TV interview. She’s also dealing with fresh questions after Politico uncovered a video from 2021 that showed her berating her staff.
Big money, bigger odds: Some Democrats are growing weary of vanity candidates, who generate a lot of buzz (and amass massive war chests) before ultimately fizzling, The Bulwark reports.
Endorse me once, endorse me twice: NOTUS reports that Trump and his circle aren’t expected to help former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn as he mounts a House comeback from a deep-red Florida district.
States to watch: As fights over current congressional maps continue, National Journal is looking ahead to the post-2030 landscape and identifies six states where legislative elections over the next few cycles will be crucial to future redistricting efforts and deciding the balance of power in Congress.
The count: 35 years
That’s how long it’s been since there was a seriously contested race in the nation’s capital to elect its nonvoting delegate to the House.
For more than three decades, Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton — a civil rights icon, D.C. statehood champion and political institution in her own right — has been the face of the District on Capitol Hill. But that era may be drawing to a close.
D.C. Councilmember Brooke Pinto on Monday officially jumped into the Democratic primary, which already includes another councilmember, former Norton staffer Robert White, and D.C. education board president Jacque Patterson, among others. Norton, 88, has said she’s running for a 19th term, but her fundraising shows she may not be financially equipped for a competitive primary.
Norton’s latest FEC report, filed Wednesday, showed a single-employee campaign that has largely been subsisting on candidate loans that are unlikely to be repaid, the last of which she made in June. The campaign reported raising just $3,200 last quarter, with only a single July contribution of $2,500 from a trucking PAC clearing the reporting threshold of $50 over the period.
If Norton opts to retire, D.C. could see its first wide-open delegate race since she initially won the seat in 1990. And it would also be yet another instance of a generational changing of the guard within an aging House Democratic Caucus.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
The partial government shutdown isn’t affecting the filing of federal campaign reports. Third-quarter disclosures for the July-to-September period are due to the Federal Election Commission by the end of Wednesday, Oct. 15.
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
The post At the Races: Signs of the times appeared first on Roll Call.
