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Senate Democrats are making strides toward recruiting who they believe are some of their best possible candidates for 2026, which should make key races more competitive — or at least more expensive.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown has reportedly decided to run again in Ohio, seeking to challenge appointed incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted. But as Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections explains below, even if Brown is the best Democratic candidate in the Buckeye State, his anticipated entry only moves the race to the Lean Republican column.
Brown will likely face another barrage of money against him from pro-crypto interests, Politico reported. And the Republican leadership-aligned Senate Leadership Fund was quick to pile on.
“Sherrod Brown has spent his entire career collecting a government paycheck, and now just eight months into retirement and after a date night with Chuck Schumer, he’s begging taxpayers for more,” former Sen. Cory Gardner, SLF’s chairman, said in a statement.
Democrats also got their preferred candidate in North Carolina, with former Gov. Roy Cooper having announced his entry at the end of July, and they appear to have avoided a hotly contested primary in New Hampshire, with Rep. Chris Pappas the favorite to be the Democratic Senate nominee in the open-seat contest to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer has been recruiting Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola as a challenger to GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Axios reported Wednesday. Democrats also continue to hope that Gov. Janet Mills jumps into the Senate race in Maine.
In Georgia, the Republican primary is setting up to be a potential brawl, while Democrats have their candidate in incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff. Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp declined to run for Senate, as did former Gov. Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.
“From nasty, expensive primaries to a string of embarrassing recruitment failures and a toxic agenda, Senate Republicans are falling apart at the seams,” DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement. “Their disastrous start to the year puts their majority at risk while Senate Democrats are in a strong position to win seats in 2026.”
Starting gate
#ALSEN: Alabama Rep. Barry Moore has entered the race for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor.
Crime watch: After griping for years about crime and homelessness in Washington, D.C., President Donald Trump announced this week that he would deploy the National Guard and take control of the capital city’s police. But as Roll Call’s Michael Macagnone reports, Republicans in Congress hold enormous sway over the D.C. justice system that Trump maligns.
A renewed effort: Meanwhile, Roll Call’s Justin Papp caught up with statehood advocates, who are calling on Democrats in Congress to get behind a new push for greater autonomy for the District after Trump’s move.
ICYMI
#MISEN: Michigan state Rep. Joe Tate suspended his campaign for an open Senate seat after struggling to keep pace with the other Democratic candidates’ fundraising efforts.
#NYGOV: Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik was asked again this week about whether she would run for governor of New York. “I am going to make that announcement after November. We are focused on the local elections this year,” she said Monday night on Sean Hannity’s Fox News Channel program.
Trump endorsement watch: The president announced he’s backing Lt. Gov. Burt Jones for Georgia governor. Trump also reiterated his support for South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, calling into the state Republican Party’s Silver Elephant Gala to tell attendees that the senator, who faces a primary challenge, is a “great guy” who has stood by him.
House launch (Democratic version): Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse, entered the race for Wisconsin’s 1st District, challenging GOP Rep. Bryan Steil.
House launches (Republican version): Businessman and state Sen. John Braun announced his bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez in Washington’s 3rd District. Gluesenkamp Pérez is one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top targets.
In Indiana, state Rep. and former U.S. Marine Craig Haggard is running in the 4th District. The current holder of the seat, fellow Republican Jim Baird, has yet to announce whether he will seek reelection.
Texas hold ’em: The congressional map proposed by Texas Republicans could place Democratic Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in the same Austin-based district, setting up a clash between the longtime House member and the younger Progressive Caucus chair. Punchbowl News reports that Doggett told supporters in an email that he plans to run in the Austin-based 37th District and that he hoped Casar would run for a different seat.
Nathan’s notes
Inside Elections updated the rating in the Ohio Senate race to account for the anticipated entry of Brown, moving the race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. As Gonzales writes this week, a typical statewide Republican has a 10-point advantage in Ohio, according to the Inside Elections metrics.
What we’re reading
Florida man: The Buffalo News caught up with former Rep. Chris Collins, who represented western New York before pleading guilty to federal charges related to insider trading. He was pardoned by Trump at the end of 2020 and is now seeking a political comeback in southwest Florida, in the GOP-favorable seat occupied by Rep. Byron Donalds, who is running for governor.
Turek’s campaign: Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek became the latest Democrat to enter the Iowa Senate race, where Republican Sen. Joni Ernst hasn’t yet formally announced whether she will run again. Turek, a medal-winning Paralympian, said in an interview with NBC News, “I absolutely do not look like your average senatorial candidate.” As Bridget Bowman reported for NBC, Turek uses a wheelchair, and he was born with spina bifida.
Progressives in the wilderness: For two decades, the annual Netroots Nation conference was an essential stop for progressives looking to network, brainstorm and celebrate their wins. But Semafor visited the gathering in New Orleans last week and found the mood “nervous and grim.”
The count: -12 points
That’s Schumer’s net favorability rating among voters in his home state of New York, according to a poll released by Siena University on Tuesday.
The 38-50 percent favorable-unfavorable split is the longtime senator’s lowest mark on record, over the more than 20 years that Siena has posed the question to New Yorkers. Even among voters in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City, Schumer’s favorability is 7 points underwater (39-46 percent).
The state’s other Democratic senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, has also seen her favorability sink to a net of -2 since being reelected with nearly 59 percent of the state’s vote last November. The voters also have an overall negative view of Democrats in Congress as a whole, with just 42 percent judging them favorably, as opposed to 49 percent seeing them in an unfavorable light (a net favorable rating of -7).
Despite the binary nature of American politics, the decline in Schumer and his fellow Democrats’ standings doesn’t translate into Republican gains in the poll. Trump’s favorability rating stands at a net of -19, and Republicans in Congress are a whopping 24 points underwater with New York voters.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
The California Legislature is back from summer recess on Monday, with Democrats having only until Friday, Aug. 22, to craft a potential map for redrawing the state’s congressional districts in time to hold a special election to approve the proposal in November.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Reeling in the recruits appeared first on Roll Call.
