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Before the House passed the sweeping budget reconciliation bill by the slimmest of margins Thursday morning, the chamber’s Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, made a prediction.
“I think that when the story is told of the 119th Congress, when the votes are ultimately cast on that first Tuesday in November next year, that this day may very well turn out to be the day that House Republicans lost control of the United States House of Representatives,” the New York Democrat said.
The 215-214 vote saw two Republicans join all Democrats in opposition, while one Republican voted present and two others did not vote.
While the midterm elections are still relatively far off in the future, the vote gives fresh campaign ammunition to House Democratic challengers and their supporters.
House Majority PAC, the leadership-aligned Democratic super PAC, for instance, is already going after Republican lawmakers from states such as California, New Jersey and New York for not cutting a good enough deal on the state and local taxes, or “SALT,” deduction, which is currently capped at $10,000 per household.
“After months of grandstanding on SALT, Nick LaLota caved to party leadership and betrayed his constituents,” HMP spokesperson Katarina Flicker said in a statement about the second-term Republican from Long Island.
LaLota, however, was claiming victory.
“This was a years-long battle, and I’m proud my colleagues finally came around to a plan that fixes the unfair $10,000 cap from 2017,” he said in a statement. “Raising it to $40,000 means 92% of the families I represent will finally be made whole. For too long, Suffolk County’s middle class has been punished by double taxation. That ends now.”
Republicans, meanwhile, argued that a vote against the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” was a vote for a tax increase, as the measure would extend the 2017 GOP-led tax cuts.
“Every single House Democrat just gave their middle finger to middle-class America,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said in a statement.
Republicans also contend that the Democratic votes represented votes to cut border security and military spending (which GOP lawmakers are seeking to increase through the reconciliation bill outside the regular appropriations process).
Among the Democratic members targeted by the NRCC is Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez.
“Instead of doing her job and making her constituents’ lives better, she just voted to raise their taxes, take away their jobs, and undermine our national security,” NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez said in a statement.
Gluesenkamp Pérez, who ranks among the 10 most vulnerable House members on Roll Call’s recent list, cited the bill’s effect on the national debt as among the reasons she voted against it.
“This massive bill reveals the consequences of single-party control: the bill doesn’t balance the federal budget, it doesn’t balance the competing priorities I hear from my community, and it avoids making tough decisions in favor of making reckless ones,” she said in a statement.
Our Roll Call colleagues David Lerman and Caitlin Reilly have a full report on the budget reconciliation bill’s passage.
Starting gate
Political realignment or temporary blip? Latino voters shifted to the right in 2024, but the midterms could test whether that trend has staying power, especially in a handful of House districts in California.
Open targets: A trio of House members who have launched Senate bids are leaving open seats on the periphery of the battleground. Republicans are optimistic about winning seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, while Democrats are hopeful a strong political environment will put a safely red seat in Kentucky in play.
Golden runs again: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who represents a Maine district carried three times by President Donald Trump, has decided to run for reelection, likely setting up a 2026 matchup with Republican former Gov. Paul LePage.
RIP: Virginia Rep. Gerald E. Connolly, a Democrat known for his advocacy on behalf of the federal workforce, died Wednesday at 75, just weeks after announcing that his esophageal cancer had returned. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is expected to call a special election to fill the late congressman’s remaining term in Virginia’s safely blue 11th District in the D.C. suburbs. Connolly had already endorsed his former chief of staff, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, in the regular election to succeed him.
Take 5: Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans discussed Medicaid funding, immigration policy and why he still wears his “police boots” in an interview with our colleague Justin Papp. The Republican from a Colorado swing district also disclosed that the only books he’s had time to read lately have been the Bible and “The Art of the Deal.”
ICYMI
Franzen drops bid: Melisa López Franzen, the former Democratic leader of the Minnesota Senate, has dropped her bid for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. “This is not about stepping back — it’s about stepping with intention into the space where I can have the greatest impact,” she said in a statement. Her exit leaves Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan as the remaining high-profile hopefuls in the Democratic primary.
Other Vindman for Senate? Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who helped prompt Trump’s first impeachment, told CBS Miami he is thinking about challenging appointed Florida GOP Sen. Ashley Moody. “I don’t think the state is too far gone by any means. I certainly don’t believe that. I just don’t know if I’m the right person to do that or if that’s the right role for me,” he said of his potential Democratic campaign. Vindman’s identical twin brother, Eugene, is a freshman Virginia congressman.
#ILSEN: Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood won’t run to succeed retiring Sen. Richard J. Durbin, saying she “decided the most powerful way for me to defend our values and hold Donald Trump accountable is to help Democrats win back the House.” Underwood is a member of House Democratic leadership and serves as a DCCC recruitment vice chair. Not long after her announcement, fellow Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is running for Durbin’s seat, released a polling memo showing him leading in a three-way race with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly by 9 points with 36 percent of voters undecided.
Fundraising focus: The NRCC and NRSC have jointly filed a comment urging the Federal Trade Commission to investigate Google’s practices that they say lead to emails from both committees being sent to Gmail users’ spam inboxes. The committees estimate that they would forgo millions of dollars in fundraising because of their emails being sent to spam.
Guv roundup: In Ohio, Attorney General Dave Yost has ended his campaign for governor, leaving former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy as the only major Republican running to succeed term-limited GOP incumbent Mike DeWine. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms entered the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Georgia, where Republican incumbent Brian Kemp is barred from seeking a third consecutive term. In Maine, former state Senate President Troy Jackson made his bid for governor official this week and got an endorsement from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Republican state Sen. James Libby announced his campaign Thursday. In Florida, former Rep. Matt Gaetz says he’s still weighing a run for governor. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds is already in the race and has earned Trump’s endorsement. And former Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz says he’s thinking of running for governor of the Beehive State … in 2028.
Nathan’s notes
There’s still about 17 months to go before Election Day, but history is working against House Republicans, according to Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. To hold on to their razor-thin majority, they are going to have to defy a trend that goes back nearly 90 years.
What we’re reading
Spending for influence: Democratic megadonors are being asked to pony up millions to fund “an army of left-leaning influencers” in a quest to “find the next Joe Rogan,” The New York Times reports.
Besties: NOTUS reports on the friendship among Democratic Sens. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Christopher S. Murphy of Connecticut. The three have generally found their own lanes as they move up the party ranks, with Schatz now seeking the Senate Democratic whip slot in the next Congress.
EMILY at middle age: The Washington Post assesses the past impact and future promise of EMILY’s List as the Democratic abortion rights group marks its 40th birthday.
Primary season incoming: Democrats are preparing for a “chaotic” primaries next year, Politico reports. Some House campaign leaders could intervene in primaries in order to set up favored general election matchups as the party seeks to win back the chamber.
The count: 79 percent
That’s the level of public opposition to major Medicare cuts, according to a KFF poll conducted in April. That includes 94 percent of Democrats, 81 percent of independents and 64 percent of Republicans.
This week, in response to a request from Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Brendan F. Boyle, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that deficits incurred as a result of the Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill could trigger Medicare cuts totaling nearly $500 billion through 2034.
This wouldn’t be a foregone conclusion, though, as The Washington Post reported: “Congress could instruct the White House budget office to disregard the reconciliation package’s debt impact, pass new legislation to reduce the deficit or change federal budget scorekeeping rules.”
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend a private dinner at his Northern Virginia golf club Thursday night with the top investors in his eponymous $TRUMP meme coin. Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., is expected to attend a protest outside the event hosted by Our Revolution and Public Citizen.
The top 220 investors in Trump’s meme coin are on the guest list for the dinner, including crypto mogul Justin Sun, who announced his attendance on X: “As the top holder of $TRUMP, I’m excited to connect with everyone, talk crypto, and discuss the future of our industry.”
Ahead of the dinner, California Rep. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, unveiled a bill dubbed the “Stop TRUMP in Crypto Act of 2025” that would seek to stop his meme coin and also block future presidents and vice presidents, as well as members of Congress and their family members, from offering similar instruments.
Photo finish
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This report was corrected to reflect that two Republicans did not vote on the reconciliation bill passage and another voted present.
The post At the Races: One big beautiful campaign appeared first on Roll Call.
