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President Donald Trump set the stage for the midterm election season with his State of the Union address on Tuesday, touting his immigration policies and blaming Democrats for high costs. Now, Republicans will try to take his message to voters as they seek to buck historical trends this year and retain control of the House.
The conservative group American Sovereignty released an ad Thursday featuring Trump asking lawmakers to stand if they agree with the statement: “The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” The ad shows Republicans on their feet applauding, while Democrats remained in their seats.
Dozens of other Democrats, meanwhile, boycotted the speech and spoke at counterprogramming events, arguing they needed to make a stronger-than-usual response to Trump because, as Connecticut Sen. Christopher S. Murphy put it, “this union is in crisis right now.”
The fun continues next Tuesday, when the midterms kick off in earnest with the first primaries of the year in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, and voters finally begin to answer some of the questions we’ve raised in this newsletter in recent months.
In Texas, both parties’ Senate primaries are the marquee contests, but the Republicans’ three-way race could head to a May runoff, extending the intense campaign for another 12 weeks.
In North Carolina, progressives are hoping to make a statement in the 4th District, where Democratic Rep. Valerie P. Foushee faces a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, whom she first defeated in a 2022 primary. An Allam victory would be another win for progressives after Analilia Mejia won the Democratic nomination in the special primary election for New Jersey’s vacant 11th District earlier this month.
Primaries in both states come after the Republican-led state legislatures redrew their congressional maps last year, seeking an advantage in the fight for the House majority. Tuesday will set up key battleground matchups, including opponents to North Carolina Rep. Don Davis and Texas Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar.
Starting gate
Year of the [GOP] Woman? Republicans have long lagged behind Democrats in recruiting and supporting female candidates for Congress. But outside groups that back GOP women are hoping to change that — and they view Texas, where retirements and redistricting have reshaped the political map, as a prime opportunity.
Texas tension: Our colleague Savannah Behrmann looks at how the lack of a Trump endorsement is upending the Senate race in Texas — and Republican incumbent John Cornyn’s hopes for reelection.
Red-to-blue: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named a dozen challengers running in Republican-held districts to its initial list of candidates slated to receive extra attention and resources. House Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win the majority in November, provided the current vacant seats don’t change party hands in upcoming special elections.
Trump support stats: Trump had a record year in 2025 in terms of GOP support in Congress, according to the numbers crunched for Roll Call’s annual vote studies by our colleague Ryan Kelly. On votes on which the president took a position, he had the backing of 96 percent of Senate Republicans and 95 percent of House Republicans.
ICYMI
Mobilizing Latino voters: Latino Victory Fund is spending $250,000 on a bilingual campaign to bolster voter turnout in advance of Tuesday’s Democratic primaries in Texas. The group is running ads on TV, radio and digital channels to promote Rep. Sylvia R. Garcia, as well as Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who is running in the 15th District, and Senate candidate James Talarico.
Prediction politics: The prediction market Kalshi has banned former long-shot California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford from its platform. The platform’s rules “prohibit trading in a contract over which the trader has direct or indirect influence over the outcome,” according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Utah redistricting: A three-judge panel denied a bid from Utah Republicans to overturn the state’s new court-ordered congressional map. The ruling affirms the likelihood that Democrats will have a strong opportunity to pick up a House seat in the deep-red state this fall.
Peach State pivot: Democratic state Rep. Ruwa Romman has dropped her bid for Georgia governor and will instead run for state Senate. Romman told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution she made her decision after learning well-funded outside groups were lining up behind former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.
Endorsement watch: CHC BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is backing Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who is running in California’s 48th District.
Nathan’s notes
The president and his penchant for saying that “things that are easily disprovable” are the subject of an opinion column this week by Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections.
Whether it’s deceit or confabulation, the pattern is not harmless, Nathan writes.
What we’re reading
Scandal in a time of narrow margins: Texts that appear to show Rep. Tony Gonzales pressuring a staffer who later died by suicide into a sexual relationship are “alarming” and “detestable,” according to Speaker Mike Johnson. But Johnson has not called on the Texas Republican to resign. Several Republicans granted anonymity told MS NOW that Johnson’s reluctance stems from his party’s slender grip on the House majority. “It’s a game of numbers and we’re in a losing battle,” one Republican told the outlet. Gonzales is facing a primary challenge from Brandon Herrera.
Advantage, establishment: Younger progressive candidates have captured significant attention in the lead-up to the midterm elections. But in California, the Democratic Party has been reluctant to back the upstarts. Instead, CalMatters found, the state party is sticking with tried-and-true establishment Democrats, a move that disappointed but didn’t surprise left-wing activists.
Unmasking Johnny MAGA: A right-wing account with 280,000 followers on X posts dozens of times per day, lavishing praise on Trump and attacking his political enemies. Wired revealed that the account, known as @johnnymaga, appears to be operated by a White House staffer named Garrett Wade.
Zo what? How are New Yorkers referring to their new mayor? The New York Times examined the history of mayoral nicknames and quizzed the editors of the city’s tabloids to gauge which one of Zohran Mamdani’s nicknames will stick.
The count: 52.6 percent
That’s the share of Texas’ early votes that were cast as Democratic ballots (864,692 through Wednesday), compared with the 47.4 percent composed of Republican ballots (779,768).
Texas Democrats haven’t enjoyed an early vote advantage in Texas in recent years.
Through this point in early voting in the last midterm primaries, in 2022, 62.3 percent of the votes cast were Republican (689,360 votes) to the Democrats’ 37.7 percent (416,631). Current totals reflect a 13 percent jump in the number of early Republican ballots cast from this point in 2022, while comparable early participation on the Democratic side jumped 108 percent.
The Republican early vote advantage was even more dramatic in the 2024 primaries, when their early primary voters were outvoting their Democratic counterparts by more than 2-to-1.
— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Key race: Texas’ 34th District
Candidates: Five-term Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is one of the most vulnerable House incumbents and a top GOP target. A pair of Republicans who share a last name but are unrelated are competing to take him on: former Rep. Mayra Flores and former federal prosecutor and Army veteran Eric D. Flores. The primary is Tuesday.
Why it matters: This South Texas battleground will provide a test of the durability of the GOP’s recent gains among working-class Latino voters. The border region has become increasingly hospitable to Republicans over the past decade — and that was before Texas Republicans redrew the district lines last year to make it even more favorable to the GOP: Trump would have won the new version by more than 10 points, according to Inside Elections. But Gonzalez, a moderate who has criticized his party for moving too far left on abortion and transgender rights, has demonstrated staying power, outperforming Kamala Harris in 2024. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.
Cash dash: Mayra Flores brought in $1.4 million through Feb. 11, just ahead of Eric Flores, who raised about $1.3 million. Gonzalez, who faces a primary challenge from democratic socialist Etienne Rosas, raised about $1.9 million through Feb. 11 and had $1.3 million banked.
Backers: Eric Flores has the support of much of the Republican power base, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Speaker Mike Johnson. He also picked up the biggest prize in a GOP primary: an endorsement from Trump. Mayra Flores, who had Trump’s backing in her earlier campaigns against Gonzales, blasted the president’s endorsement of her rival, saying in a social media post that her campaign “will stay focused on kitchen table issues and the many needs of the American people, not the political establishment in DC.”
What they’re saying: Mayra Flores has attacked Eric Flores as a Biden Department of Justice appointee who is “pretending to be MAGA.” Eric Flores has highlighted his work prosecuting individuals connected to drug cartels and human trafficking operations.
Terrain: The district is situated in the heart of the Rio Grande Valley, covering the southern tip of the state along the Mexico border and incorporating the cities of Harlingen, Brownsville and parts of McAllen.
Wild card: Mayra Flores won a special election in June 2022, becoming the first Mexican-born woman elected to the House. But she held the seat for only about six months, losing to Gonzalez that fall and again in 2024. Earlier this cycle, she launched a run in the 28th District against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar but shifted back to the 34th after state lawmakers made the district more favorable to the GOP. Mayra Flores has broad name recognition, but the candidates’ shared surname could create some confusion among voters.
Coming up
It’s all about the kickoff of the 2026 primary season, with Tuesday’s contests in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas. The hottest tickets are the Senate primaries in the Lone Star State, although at least one of those may be heading for a May runoff.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Make Tuesday nights political again appeared first on Roll Call.
