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Gas prices rose this week, throwing more fuel on the growing affordability battles ahead of the midterms.
Democrats called for action, with some floating plans to ease pain at the pump, as our colleague Kelly Livingston reported. On Wednesday, the Trump administration said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of an international effort to seek to lower energy prices as the war with Iran nears its third week.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this week that “the price of gas is always kind of a benchmark” while projecting optimism that the conflict would be short and the higher prices wouldn’t last long.
“I do think the fact that we have increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. Hopefully the operations in Iran … won’t become an extended situation,” he said.
But high gas prices can be a liability for the party in power. Republicans criticized the Biden administration for rising costs, and now Democrats have an opening to strike back, as polls show voters are split over support for the war with Iran.
“Oil and gas prices are skyrocketing with no end in sight,” DCCC spokesperson Liam Buckley said in a statement this week. “Republicans broke their promise to the American people, and it’s hurting hardworking families just trying to make ends meet.”
Starting gate
#ILSEN: Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton are vying for Illinois’ Democratic nomination for Senate next Tuesday, in a contest defined by President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and campaign finance fights.
He’s running: Rep. Kevin Hern is the latest House Republican to announce a bid for Senate, and he may not be the last: fellow Oklahoma Rep. Stephanie Bice said she is also weighing a run for the same freshly open Senate seat, after Trump tapped Markwayne Mullin as his nominee for secretary of Homeland Security.
Georgia on our mind: Democrat Shawn Harris and Trump-backed Republican Clayton Fuller were the top two finishers in Tuesday’s nonpartisan special election to fill former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat. The pair will face each other in an April 7 runoff, as our colleague Victor Feldman reports.
Issa out: Rep. Darrell Issa, one of the GOP’s top attack dogs during the Biden and Obama administrations, will retire next year after his San Diego-area district grew several shades bluer in California’s recent redraw of its congressional map. He endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond as his successor.
Indie band of one: Rep. Kevin Kiley, a two-term Republican whose current 3rd District stretches from the Sierra Nevada to Death Valley, filed for reelection in the 6th District under “no party preference.” Several days later, Kiley announced he would immediately change his party affiliation from Republican to independent, although he will continue to caucus with the GOP. His decision “reflects the mood of a lot of the public” who is “fed up with the extreme hyper-partisanship,” he told Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on “The Julie Mason Show.”
Filibuster front and center: Our colleague Savannah Behrmann examines how the filibuster has become a flash point in the runoff between Texas Sen. John Cornyn and his bitter GOP rival, state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
ICYMI
Missouri map: A state court in Missouri on Thursday upheld the state’s new congressional map, which legislators drew to target the seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II. The ruling isn’t the end of the legal fights, though — it will likely be appealed, and separate litigation over other issues, including a potential referendum on the map, is still moving through the courts.
Primary results: Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson easily defeated Democratic challenger Evan Turnage in Tuesday’s primary contest. Thompson had 86.1 percent of the vote with 93 percent of ballots counted as of midday Thursday, according to The Associated Press.
They’re running: Former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, who retired from his longtime role as a journalist in December, entered the Democratic primary for Florida’s 27th District, seeking to challenge GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Meanwhile in Virginia, Dorothy McAuliffe, the commonwealth’s former first lady, launched a campaign for the newly drawn 7th District, although the new map is subject to an April referendum. And in Southern California’s competitive 47th District, Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux kicked off a bid to unseat Democratic freshman Dave Min. Le Roux’s second cousin is Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, Fox News Digital reports.
Trump endorsements: Trump rolled out a trio of congressional endorsements Wednesday night: Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st District, Marty Jackley for South Dakota’s at-large seat and Brandon Herrera in Texas’ 23rd District. Herrera was facing a runoff against Rep. Tony Gonzales, but the incumbent announced last week that he was dropping his bid after admitting to a relationship with a staffer who later died by suicide.
More endorsements: New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich endorsed Graham Platner in the Democratic primary for Maine’s Senate seat. In New York, retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the Democratic primary for the 7th District seat. The group New Politics endorsed Marni von Wilpert in California’s 48th District, which is newly open after Issa’s retirement. The conservative group Turning Point Action endorsed Rep. Barry Moore for Alabama’s open Senate seat. Elect Democratic Women is backing state Rep. Lindsay James in Iowa’s open 2nd District. And Leaders We Deserve, which supports younger progressives, endorsed Nate Blouin in Utah’s 1st District and Claire Valdez in New York’s 7th District.
Clyburn runs again: Rep. James E. Clyburn, 85, announced Thursday that he’d seek another term. His announcement at South Carolina Democratic headquarters staves off what could have been a “free-for-all primary” in the Black-majority 6th District, The Post and Courier reports.
Nathan’s notes
Montana Sen. Steve Daines’ last-minute retirement announcement gives Democrats a small opening where they previously had none, writes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. Montana is a red state and Republicans still have a big advantage, but Daines’ decision to step aside minutes before the filing deadline in an attempt to hand off his seat to U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme was enough to create some uncertainty in the race, prompting Inside Elections to shift its race rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
What we’re reading
#MSSEN: Scott Colom won the Democratic nomination for Mississippi’s Senate race this week, setting up a challenge to GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a deep-red state. Semafor looked at how the battle is personal after Hyde-Smith blocked a judicial nomination for Colom in 2023 and how Democrats are holding out hope that Mississippi could come onto the map this year.
AI all around: Advancements in AI have put a renewed political focus on white-collar workers, as some elected officials warn they could be quickly displaced, NBC News reports. Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that AI groups are already spending heavily on this year’s midterm elections.
Quiet quitting Congress? House Republicans have a new worry: that members who lost their primaries will simply stop showing up for the remainder of their terms. Several House Republicans told Fox News Digital they fear some of their colleagues will quiet quit, further slicing into the GOP’s slim majority.
NM GOP MIA? National Journal examined the struggles of the New Mexico Republican Party, which failed to qualify candidates for about a third of statewide offices this year, including Senate, state treasurer and state auditor.
The count: 12 percentage points
That’s the generic ballot advantage that Democratic candidates for Congress have among American adults who consider themselves independents, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll. Thirty percent of independents said they’d select their district’s Democratic nominee if the election were held today, while 18 percent supported the Republican candidate. When all surveyed adults are included, the Democrats have a 4-point advantage.
At this point in 2018, approaching President Trump’s first midterm election, the same poll’s independents favored Republican candidates by 4 percentage points (32 percent to the Democrats’ 28 percent). When all respondents from the March 2018 survey were included, the Democrats had a 5-point advantage.
In the Economist/YouGov’s final 2018 survey, independents remained in favor of Republicans by 4 points, but exit polls from the following week’s election reported that those who actually voted favored Democrats by 12 points.
Democrats in that election gained around 40 House seats and the chamber’s majority.
— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Key race: #OH09
Candidates: At 79, Rep. Marcy Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress.
Unlike some other Democrats, the 22-term incumbent isn’t facing a primary from a younger, more progressive challenger. But a crowded field of Republicans is vying to unseat her, including state Rep. Josh Williams; Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem; Madison Sheahan, a former top deputy to outgoing Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem; and former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who as the GOP’s 2024 nominee lost to Kaptur by less than a percentage point. The primary is May 5.
Why it matters: Kaptur is one of Roll Call’s most vulnerable incumbents. Trump carried the 9th District by 7 points in 2024. Last year, the state legislature made the district even more hospitable to the GOP. Under the new lines, Trump would have won the 9th by 11 points, according to calculations by Inside Elections. Both parties are expected to invest heavily, viewing the race as crucial to determining the balance of power in the House.
Cash dash: Kaptur had $1.7 million on hand at the start of the year, which is more than all her GOP competitors combined. Merrin had $357,000 banked, while Williams had $255,000. Nadeem’s account had about $125,000. Sheahan entered the race in mid-January, after the filing deadline.
Backers: Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who is also the U.S. special envoy to Greenland, endorsed Sheahan, who previously served as secretary of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Treasurer Robert Sprague are backing Williams. Kaptur has the full support of the House Democrats’ campaign arm and is a member of the party’s Frontline program, which provides extra support to vulnerable incumbents.
What they’re saying: Several of the Republicans have focused on Kaptur’s age and long tenure in the House. “Marcy Kaptur has been in office for longer than I’ve been alive,” Williams says on his campaign website. Merrin has also called for new leadership. But Kaptur says she doesn’t see her longevity as a negative and has highlighted her experience.
Nadeem, who spent part of her childhood in Iraq, says the experience “lit a fire in her soul.” She has emphasized her military experience and cast herself as a political outsider. Sheahan has focused on her tenure as deputy director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. She’s also come under fire for authorizing the purchase of thousands of vehicles that the department can’t use, according to the Washington Examiner.
Terrain: Centered in reliably blue Toledo, the district was one of 13 nationwide held by a Democrat but won by Trump in 2024. It slices across northwestern Ohio and skims Lake Erie, while the recent redraw swept in some Republican-leaning inland counties. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican.
Wild card: Trump endorsed Merrin over fellow Republican Craig Riedel in 2024, about 18 hours before the polls opened on primary day. This time, the president has yet to publicly announce his support for any of the contenders. But a Trump endorsement, should one come, would provide a boost in the GOP primary.
Coming up
Illinois voters head to the polls on Tuesday for their primaries. The race for the Democratic Senate nomination isn’t the only one to watch; also keep an eye on crowded primaries for several open House seats.
Photo finish
A police officer stands in a little-used hallway Monday next to a plaque honoring those who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. After the long-delayed plaque was installed in a temporary location over the weekend, some say they will continue legal action to force Republican leaders to hang it in public view. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
