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By Mary Ellen McEntire and Daniela Altimari
We’re still holding on to summer here at At The Races, but Congress is back in session and the post-Labor Day campaign rush is here.
While the Senate fields in several key states have been clear for months, other races are still taking shape. As lawmakers returned to Washington on Tuesday, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst confirmed earlier reports that she wouldn’t run for a third term next year. A matter of hours after her announcement, fellow Republican Ashley Hinson, who represents the state’s 1st District, threw her hat in the ring for the newly open seat and rolled out a slew of endorsements.
In Maine, brewer Dan Kleban is the latest Democratic entrant into the Senate race, joining former Hill aide Jordan Wood and oysterman Graham Platner in seeking the nomination to challenge longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins — who herself hasn’t officially announced she’s running for reelection. Democrats are still waiting to see whether Gov. Janet Mills will run.
But before we can get to next year’s midterms, there are elections two months from today for which the campaigns are entering the final stretch.
In Virginia, polls show a tightening race between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger. A new ad from Earle-Sears echoes an anti-transgender spot from Donald Trump’s campaign last year, saying that Spanberger “is for they/them, not for us.”
Spanberger has responded with an ad focused on her commitment to improve Virginia schools.
“I believe we need to get politics out of our schools and trust parents and local communities,” she said.
The Virginia race and the contests for New Jersey governor and New York City mayor are likely to get the most attention this November and could offer a pulse check about how voters are feeling nearly a year into the second Trump administration.
The campaign around California’s redistricting ballot initiative is another thing to keep an eye on over the next two months. The New York Times reports that as much as $200 million could be raised over the next two months as Golden State voters decide whether to adopt a new Democrat-drawn congressional map ahead of the 2026 elections to counter recent mid-decade gerrymandering in Texas.
Starting gate
Ohio dispatch: The contest between Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes and Republican Kevin Coughlin in a working-class district in northeast Ohio features many of the forces shaping the 2026 midterms: a deeply polarized electorate, the shift of blue-collar voters to the right, the impact of Trump’s sweeping tax and spending law and, most crucially, a Republican-led redistricting drive that could drastically reshape this battleground seat and help the GOP maintain its House majority.
Redistricting continues: The redistricting wars between Republicans and Democrats seem poised to expand in the coming months, with Missouri state lawmakers on Wednesday convening a special session focused on redistricting. These efforts could put a spotlight on downballot races and raise questions about the future of independent redistricting commissions that some states have adopted in recent years, Mary Ellen and our colleague Mike Macagnone report.
Nadler also retiring: Former House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, the dean of the New York delegation, won’t seek reelection in 2026, setting the stage for a potentially raucous primary in his overwhelmingly Democratic district in Manhattan. We looked back at Nadler’s career with an assist from Roll Call’s Todd Ruger.
A time of flux: With Congress back this week, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections joins Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on the latest Political Theater podcast to talk about what to expect as the congressional year enters a new phase.
ICYMI
Battleground launches: Scranton, Pa., Mayor Paige Cognetti announced a challenge to GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr. in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, quickly earning support from several Democratic outside groups. In California, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert said she would challenge Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in a district that could become more favorable to Democrats under California’s newly proposed congressional map. In North Carolina, state Sen. Bobby Hanig entered the Republican primary for the state’s 1st District, joining Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson in the race to take on vulnerable Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
Granite State comeback? Former Sen. John E. Sununu is considering another Senate run in New Hampshire. The Republican — whose brother Chris Sununu, a former New Hampshire governor, passed on a Senate bid earlier this year — hasn’t held elected office since he lost reelection to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is retiring next year, and her predecessor told WMUR that he would make a decision by the end of next month. If he were to run, Sununu would be the second former senator seeking the GOP nomination, joining former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown.
A North Carolina-to-Florida comeback? Former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn was on Capitol Hill this week, meeting with other Republicans as he weighs a bid for Florida’s open 19th District, which Rep. Byron Donalds is vacating to run for governor. That’s the same district where former New York Rep. Chris Collins has said he may run.
More comebacks: Former Iowa Rep. Rod Blum said on social media that he’s weighing a bid to succeed Hinson in the 2nd District, citing encouragement he’s received from “countless supporters” before adding: “Stay tuned!” Meanwhile, Democratic former Rep. Hilda L. Solis, who went on to serve as Barack Obama’s Health and Human Services secretary and now as Los Angeles County supervisor, says she’ll run for California’s redrawn 38th District, should voters approve the new map in November.
Endorsement watch: Progressive group Justice Democrats has endorsed Angela Gonzales-Torres, an education advocate whose father was deported when she was 15, in her primary challenge to Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez in his deep-blue district in Los Angeles.
Nathan’s notes
Nathan takes a look this week at the 25 House districts that saw the biggest partisan shifts from 2022 to 2024, based on Inside Elections’ Baseline metric. Hint: Almost all of them moved in Republicans’ direction.
What we’re reading
Fruit punch-flavored hard seltzer and Soulja Boy: The Washington Post catches up with the young, Black MAGA figures who are shaking up the D.C. party scene and gaining influence within the GOP.
Democrats’ agenda: With the Democratic brand faring poorly nationwide, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is preparing to unveil a new agenda for his caucus as they seek to win control of the chamber in next year’s midterm elections, The Washington Post reports. Meanwhile, the Post also interviewed more than 20 Democrats in two Pennsylvania districts and found a high level of discontent about the direction of the party.
Hoosier expansion: The Indianapolis Star details an effort underway in Indiana to explore how the state could adjust its borders to absorb counties in Illinois that previously voted to split from their state. Indiana’s Republican governor, Mike Braun, this week announced the first five appointees to a new commission to study the idea, which Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker previously called a stunt.
Gender divide: The New York Times looks at three MAGA-aligned women — Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Nancy Mace of South Carolina — at the center of the push for greater transparency regarding the Jeffrey Epstein case. All three have cast themselves as Trump loyalists, but in this instance, they have rejected his dismissal of the Epstein case as “a Democrat hoax that never ends.”
A Garden State test: After significant gains for Trump and Republicans among Latino voters last year, polls show that support may be backsliding and the upcoming New Jersey elections will test the endurance of this partisan realignment, The Christian Science Monitor reports.
The count: 14 years
That’s how long it’s been since at least seven senators had announced their retirement by this point in an election cycle.
With her announcement Tuesday, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst joined two fellow Republicans (Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina) and four Democrats (Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Richard J. Durbin of Illinois and Shaheen of New Hampshire) in deciding not to seek reelection, or any public office, in 2026.
The last time this many senators had signaled their departure by this point was in 2011, when eight were retiring: two Republicans, five Democrats and independent Joe Lieberman. Democrats controlled the Senate at the time and went on to retain their majority in the following year’s elections.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
Voters in Virginia’s 11th District are set to elect the late Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly’s successor on Tuesday. The special election to complete Connolly’s term sees Democrat James Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County supervisor and the favorite in the deep-blue district, facing off against Republican Army veteran and former FBI official Stewart Whitson.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Falling into view appeared first on Roll Call.
