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Niels Lesniewski

At the races: Democrats get a reprieve - Roll Call

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

Editor’s note: Next week’s edition of At the Races will drop a day earlier, on Wednesday, June 18, due to the Juneteenth holiday the following day. 

Democrats won’t have a contest for one of their Democratic National Committee vice chair slots after embattled incumbent David Hogg’s decision to withdraw from the race. 

Hogg’s move came after the committee voted to call new elections for two vice chair positions following a challenge that the previous election, which saw Hogg and Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta chosen as vice chairs, did not align with DNC rules designed to promote gender equity.

Kenyatta, who had more support than Hogg in the last election, is now unopposed for the vice chair position designated for a man under party bylaws. The race for the other slot will feature three women. 

Hogg, a gun control activist who survived a 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Fla., has become a lightning rod within the party after announcing that his political action committee, Leaders We Deserve, would back challengers to “ineffective” Democratic incumbents in safely blue seats — a move that seemed incompatible with his role as party leader. 

The internal turmoil spilled into the open over the weekend when Politico reported that DNC Chair Ken Martin expressed frustrations with Hogg on a May Zoom call, saying his actions had “essentially destroyed any chance I have to show the leadership that I need to.”

Hogg said in a statement Wednesday that he had opted to step aside.

“I need to do this work with Leaders We Deserve, and it is going to remain my number one mission to build the strongest party possible,” he said. 

Kenyatta said in a statement following Hogg’s exit that Democrats should keep their focus on the president. 

“As Donald Trump sends troops into American cities, threatens peaceful protest, and tries to dismantle Medicare and Medicaid, working families are feeling the squeeze,” he said. “Democrats must be bold and meet this moment.”

Kenyatta and others have signaled that the focus on Hogg has been a distraction at a time when Democrats should be on offense, both against the House-passed budget reconciliation measure dubbed the “one big, beautiful bill” as it moves through the Senate as well as Trump’s move to deploy the California National Guard and U.S. Marines to the streets of Los Angeles.

It’s a bit of a choose-your-own-adventure when it comes to early polling on the unrest in Los Angeles, which was fueled by opposition to Trump’s mass deportation policies.

A June 10 YouGov survey found that on one hand, a plurality of 47 percent disapproved of Trump’s move to use the Marine Corps on U.S. soil. Just a slightly smaller percentage, 45 percent, disapproved of using the National Guard.

But a plurality of 45 percent also disapproved of the protests in Los Angeles.

Starting gate

Time to rotate the crops? A flip of a state Senate seat, an abundance of experienced candidates and a remark by a Republican incumbent that drew widespread scorn: Those are some of the factors fueling optimism among Iowa Democrats about the 2026 midterms. But shifting the political direction of a state that has swung sharply to the right in the Trump era won’t be easy, and Hawkeye State Republicans are confident they can turn back any potential blue wave.

Sherrill wins New Jersey primary: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill secured her party’s nomination for New Jersey governor Tuesday, defeating five other candidates, including fellow Rep. Josh Gottheimer. She will face Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the November election. 

Tea party redux? Several former House Democrats who went down in the 2010 “tea party” wave say they’re watching a reboot taking place today — this time with Republicans facing town hall heat from constituents angry about policies being pursued by the majority party in Washington. Our colleague Jim Saksa has the story, which he talked about with CQ Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on the latest “Political Theater” podcast

Pingree for governor: Hannah Pingree, a former state House speaker who is the daughter of Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree, has announced a gubernatorial bid in Maine. She joins a Democratic primary field that already includes Angus King III, whose father is the state’s junior senator.

Eyeing the exit: Tennessee Rep. Mark E. Green will resign from Congress “as soon as the House votes once again on the reconciliation package.” Green, who chairs the Homeland Security Committee, said he was offered a private sector job “that was too exciting to pass up.” At least three Republicans — Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight; Matt Van Epps, who served in Gov. Bill Lee’s administration; and Army veteran Jon Thorp — have said they will run in the special election to complete Green’s term.

ICYMI

Lone star launches: Texas Democrats have announced an eight-figure campaign called Blue Texas to elect Democrats in a state that’s largely been a white whale for the party in recent cycles. The announcement comes amid talk of a mid-decade redrawing of the state’s congressional map ahead of next year’s midterms to help boost Republicans’ chances of keeping the House. 

#PA07: Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor who resigned from the Justice Department earlier this year, entered the race to challenge Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. The two other Democrats already in the race criticized Crosswell, a former Republican, for his loose ties to the Lehigh Valley district.

Endorsement watch: Leaders We Deserve, the group co-founded by Hogg, has endorsed Virginia Del. Irene Shin in the special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly. In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig’s bid for Senate has gotten the backing of two prospective future colleagues: Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Andy Kim of New Jersey. And Elect Democratic Women, the PAC founded by female Democrats in Congress, has endorsed Illinois Rep. Robin Kelly for the state’s open Senate seat. 

Virginia special election: Early voting for the June 28 Democratic “firehouse primary” in the special election for Virginia’s 11th District will take place on Thursday, June 26. At least nine Democrats have so far declared bids to fill the seat left vacant by Connolly’s death. District Republicans will hold their own canvass the same day. The nominees will face off in a special election on Sept. 9.

More Texas news: Two-time Democratic congressional candidate Gina Ortiz Jones will be the next mayor of San Antonio after winning a runoff election over the weekend. Jones, who served as undersecretary of the Air Force in the Biden administration, overcame a well-funded challenge from Republican Rolando Pablos in the officially nonpartisan race to lead the heavily Democratic city. 

Budget bill blues: The GOP’s budget proposal is deeply unpopular, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, with just 27 percent of voters supporting the measure. Trump’s approval numbers are also underwater, the Quinnipiac poll found, with 38 percent approving of the president’s handling of the job and 53 percent disapproving.   

More endorsements: EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights, is endorsing three mayoral candidates facing contested primaries: Boston incumbent Michelle Wu, New Orleans City Council President Helena Moreno and Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield. The group also endorsed Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Christine Donohue, one of three Democrats on the bench facing retention elections this year.  

Plouffe’s new gig: David Plouffe, the Democratic strategist who most recently was a senior adviser to Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, has joined Coinbase as an adviser, Politico reported. Plouffe appeared at a Coinbase crypto summit Thursday morning, not long after the announcement.

Nathan’s notes

The fight for the House majority looms as the biggest story of the 2026 election cycle, CQ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes, and both parties are well into recruitment mode. 

Nathan identifies 11 House candidates, or potential ones, whose nontraditional backgrounds could give their parties a boost in the fight for the chamber. 

What we’re reading

D.C. delegate: The Washington Post reports that several D.C. officials are questioning whether longtime Democratic Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, who turns 88 on Friday, continues to be the city’s best advocate on Capitol Hill. 

Scions of the times: The Boston Globe looks at the durability of political dynasties in northern New England, where several sons and daughters of well-known politicos are running this cycle.

No change in the Bayou: Louisiana lawmakers considered modifying the state’s new law that requires a runoff when a candidate doesn’t get a majority of the primary vote, which some analysts predicted would help Sen. Bill Cassidy’s reelection bid next year, NOLA.com reports, but ultimately no changes were made. 

The Blue Dog way: DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand talks to The Washington Post about Senate Democrats’ efforts to recruit candidates in red-leaning states as they try to win the majority next year. The New York Democrat sees parallels with her own first race for Congress, when she flipped a conservative-leaning upstate seat in 2006.

The count: 5

That’s how many New Jersey counties — Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Middlesex and Union — have never voted for a woman for governor in a general election.

Voters in these counties have had four opportunities to cast a ballot for three different female gubernatorial nominees: Republicans Christine Todd Whitman (1993 and 1997) and Kim Guadagno (2017), as well as Democrat Barbara Buono (2013).

All five counties are either solidly Democratic or fairly open to voting for Democrats, which leaves the party’s nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, with a good chance of ending the streak in at least some of those counties this fall.

The toughest might be Gloucester and Cumberland counties, which Republican rival Frank Ciattarelli carried in his losing 2021 bid for governor. Both South Jersey counties also voted for Trump in last fall’s presidential election.

Meanwhile, Whitman, the first woman to be elected New Jersey governor, said Wednesday that she’s backing Sherrill to become the second. 

— by CQ Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Coming up

Tuesday is election day in Virginia, with primaries for executive and legislative offices to determine this fall’s matchups. But the commonwealth’s gubernatorial race is effectively set between Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, neither of whom faces any primary challengers. 

Photo finish

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst scores during the Congressional Baseball Game in Washington on Wednesday night. Republicans beat Democrats, 13-2, for their fifth straight victory, Roll Call’s Hunter Savery reports. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the races: Democrats get a reprieve appeared first on Roll Call.

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