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Mary Ellen McIntire

At the Races: Back to our regularly scheduled programming - Roll Call

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski

The House voted Wednesday night to end the longest partial government shutdown in history, and President Donald Trump signed the bill shortly thereafter, bringing to a close a turbulent stretch on Capitol Hill.

Six House Democrats joined all but two voting Republicans in support of the spending package. And they all represent swing seats: retiring Maine Rep. Jared Golden, who had voted to keep the government open in September; Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez; Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar; North Carolina Rep. Don Davis; California Rep. Adam Gray; and New York Rep. Tom Suozzi. 

While several of the eight Senate Democrats who voted with Republicans to reopen the government earlier this week also represent swing states, none of them are set to face voters until at least 2028.

If past is prologue, the shutdown itself won’t be top of mind for voters in next year’s midterm elections. But its themes will likely continue to be litigated, especially with a yet-to-be-determined health care bill expected to hit the Senate floor before Dec. 31 to address the expiring enhanced tax credits at the heart of the shutdown. 

That measure could be a chance for centrist lawmakers to flex their deal-making muscles on an issue that Democrats have signaled they will try to make central to their affordability agenda in 2026. 

Both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic nonprofit Majority Forward this week announced ad campaigns targeting Republicans in key states over rising health care costs. 

Still, Democrats once again find themselves torn over how their members have handled the end of the government shutdown. Liberal groups are calling for Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer to step down, although the New York Democrat appears to still have the support of the caucus. 

The tension extended to the House side on Wednesday, when Gluesenkamp Pérez gave notice of her intent to call up a disapproval resolution against fellow Democratic Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García, who confirmed last week that he won’t seek reelection but only after his chief of staff was the lone Democrat besides him to file for his Chicago-area seat before the filing deadline.

Starting gate

Blue Utah: House Democrats scored a big legal victory this week when a Utah judge picked a new congressional map that presents an obvious Democratic pickup opportunity in Salt Lake City. Former Rep. Ben McAdams on Thursday announced his bid for the newly drawn 1st District, a day after fellow Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe threw her hat into the ring.

Comeback bid: Former Rep. Elaine Luria, a Virginia Democrat, has launched a campaign to retake the Hampton Roads-based seat that she lost to Republican Jen Kiggans in 2022.

Wood pivots to House: Democrat Jordan Wood, a former congressional staffer who’d been running for Senate in Maine, has switched to the race for the state’s largely rural 2nd District. Wood made the move after the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Jared Golden, announced he wouldn’t run again.

He’s running: Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of President John F. Kennedy, announced he would run for New York’s 12th District, an open seat that’s drawn a growing field of Democrats seeking to succeed Rep. Jerrold Nadler. New York City Council Member Erik Bottcher on Thursday became the latest candidate to announce a bid for the deep-blue Manhattan district. 

And they’re calling it quits: New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman won’t seek reelection next year, saying it’s “time to pass the torch” as she leaves behind a safe Democratic seat in central New Jersey. She’s joined by House Budget Chairman Jodey C. Arrington, who also said he would retire next year after five terms representing a deep-red seat in rural West Texas. CQ Roll Call Managing Editor Peter Cohn looked at Arrington’s time atop the Budget panel. 

#NYGOV: New York Rep. Elise Stefanik launched her long-awaited gubernatorial bid last week after months of sparring with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

ICYMI

Endorsements: Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for her state’s open Senate seat. Americans for Prosperity Action backed former Sen. John E. Sununu for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat. Former Rep. John Duarte endorsed Republican Kevin Lincoln to unseat Rep. Adam Gray, who ousted Duarte from California’s 13th District last year. Duarte had previously been supporting Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez against Gray. 

New maps, new campaigns: California Senate leader Mike McGuire is launching a bid for the state’s 1st District, which became significantly bluer under a map approved by voters earlier this month. Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa hasn’t said whether he’ll run for reelection from his redrawn seat. Elsewhere in the Golden State, Navy veteran Marc Iannarino is joining the increasingly crowded field of Democrats running for the 48th District, a new battleground seat. GOP incumbent Darrell Issa also hasn’t said whether he’ll run for reelection here. And in Texas, Democratic Rep. Al Green will seek reelection in the redrawn 18th District, which has largely subsumed the deep-blue seat he has represented since 2005. Green’s decision sets up a primary battle with the winner of the special election to fill the 18th District as it is currently drawn.

Battleground launches: Army veteran Michael Bouchard launched a campaign in Michigan’s 10th District, an open seat that GOP Rep. John James is vacating to run for governor. Bouchard’s father, Mike, is the longtime sheriff of Oakland County. In New Hampshire, Elizabeth Girard, a co-chair of Trump’s 2024 campaign in the state, said she was running for the open 1st District, a swing seat currently held by Democratic Senate hopeful Rep. Chris Pappas. 

Primary watch: Democratic National Committee member Latonya Reeves said she would challenge Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar in the 5th District primary next year. Omar has successfully beaten back other primary challenges since she was first elected in 2018. In New York City, Rep. Ritchie Torres is facing multiple new primary challengers, including former DNC Vice Chair Michael Blake, a former state assemblyman who ran unsuccessfully for mayor this year, and Dalourny Nemorin, a public defender and member of the Democratic Socialists of America’s New York City chapter.

Also in NYC: New York City Council Member Chi Ossé has said he plans to challenge House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in his Brooklyn-based district next year, although Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whose views Ossé is aligned with, has sought to discourage him from doing so. 

Dropping out: The crowded field of Democrats vying to replace New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler thinned by one as attorney Jessica Reinmann scrapped her bid and endorsed Army veteran Cait Conley. In Southern California, Democratic former Chino Valley school board member Christina Gagnier suspended her campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Young Kim in the 40th District, which becomes significantly redder under the state’s new map. And in Ohio, businessman Fred Ode ended his Senate run against fellow Democrat Sherrod Brown. Ode had put $5 million into his campaign.

#MISEN: Former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers has had the Republican field to himself in the state’s open Senate race, but that appears to be changing. Bernadette Smith, who recently resigned as a co-chair of Michigan’s Republican Party, filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to form a Senate campaign. 

#KYSEN: Champion horse trainer Dale Romans is launching a bid for Kentucky’s open Senate seat. Romans told The New York Times that he’s running as an “independent Democrat” in the ruby-red state. He joins four Democrats in the primary, including Amy McGrath, who lost to Sen. Mitch McConnell by 20 points in 2020 despite spending nearly $93 million.

Another Pelosi on the ballot: California Democrat Christine Pelosi, the daughter of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will seek the state Senate seat of Democrat Scott Weiner, who’s running to succeed her mother in her San Francisco-based district. Weiner’s seat would become vacant if he wins election to the 11th District next year, or the younger Pelosi would have to wait until 2028, when he would be term-limited. 

Guv roundup: Connecticut Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont kicked off his run for a third term last week. In Texas, former Rep. Chris Bell entered the Democratic primary to unseat Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, some two decades after losing the 2006 gubernatorial contest to Republican Rick Perry. Abbott launched his bid for a fourth term on Sunday. In New Mexico, state Sen. Steve Lanier is the latest Republican hoping to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Alaska state Sen. Matt Claman became the second Democrat to launch a bid for the Frontier State’s open governorship. Republican Zach Lahn, a farmer and businessman from eastern Iowa, announced a campaign for governor of the Hawkeye State. And in Minnesota, businessman Patrick Knight joined a crowded GOP field seeking to unseat Democratic-Farmer-Labor Gov. Tim Walz, who’s seeking a third term.

Dismissed: A federal district judge dismissed a lawsuit against pollster J. Ann Selzer brought by a Des Moines Register subscriber. The case centered on a poll Selzer published before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa. A different lawsuit, filed by Trump over the same poll, is pending.

Progressive win: Activist Katie Wilson is the apparent winner of Seattle’s mayoral election. According to The Seattle Times, Wilson, who ran on a progressive platform, had a 1,976-vote lead over incumbent Bruce Harrell as of Wednesday, with not enough outstanding ballots for her opponent to catch up. The 43-year-old will be the Emerald City’s first millennial mayor.  

Nathan’s notes

Republicans had hoped mid-decade redistricting would help them pad their majority in the 2026 midterm elections. But, so far at least, Democrats appear to be holding their own in the mapmaking fight, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes. 

The new congressional lines have also prompted a flurry of race rating changes by Inside Elections. 

What we’re reading

#NHSEN: The entrance of Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu into New Hampshire’s open Senate race has Granite State Democrats warning the national party not to sleep on the contest, NBC News reports

Same playbook, different outcome: Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey leaned on anti-transgender messaging, but the line of attack didn’t have the same resonance that it had in 2024. The GOP, however, doesn’t plan to abandon such messaging for the midterms, NOTUS details.

Rethinking Fetterman: Leah Abrams, a former consultant for Sen. John Fetterman, reflected in The Nation on her growing disenchantment with the Pennsylvania Democrat.

All politics is local: Alex Seitz-Wald traded national politics for local news when he quit NBC News to become an editor at the Midcoast Villager, a newspaper based in Camden, Maine. But with the Pine Tree State home to several of the most consequential 2024 campaigns, Seitz-Wald is once again at the center of national political coverage, The Boston Globe reports.

The count: 42 days, 22 hours and 24 minutes

That’s how long the longest partial government shutdown lasted, from Oct. 1 through Wednesday night, when Trump signed the short-term spending measure, according to tabulations from our colleague Bill Frischling and Roll Call’s Factba.se

As Bill notes, 42:22:24 is also a palindrome. 

And here’s another shutdown-themed time stat from Factba.se: 29 days, 8 hours, 11 minutes and 3 seconds.

That’s how long Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva waited from electoral certification to her swearing-in Wednesday. In total, she waited more than seven weeks from the time she declared victory in the Sept. 23 special election to succeed her late father in Arizona’s 7th District. Roll Call’s Noella Kertes has more.

Coming up

New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill gave her final House floor speech Wednesday, saying she expects to submit her resignation next week. 

Sherrill will vacate a North Jersey seat she has held since 2019, and a crowded Democratic primary is already shaping up for the upcoming 11th District special election. The New Jersey Globe reports that outgoing Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way is expected to join the field, which already includes former Rep. Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brandon Gill and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett. 

Photo finish

Speaker Mike Johnson and Arizona Rep. Adelita Grijalva talk to reporters Wednesday after her ceremonial swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the Races: Back to our regularly scheduled programming appeared first on Roll Call.

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