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By Saturday night, voters in Virginia’s 11th District will have selected their nominees for a September special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerald E. Connolly, just over a month after the nine-term Democrat died of esophageal cancer.
Both sides are holding party-run “firehouse primaries” on Saturday, which will conclude a weekslong primary campaign that, on the Democratic side, is likely to pick the next member of Congress from the deep-blue Northern Virginia district that Kamala Harris carried by 34 points last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.
The 10-way Democratic primary comes as the party has grappled with questions of generational change and how to win back voters after a disappointing 2024 election. It also comes days after a late surge in support led to a surprise upset in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary.
But the condensed timeline in the race for the 11th District gives an advantage to candidates with preexisting name recognition and a base of support.
“This is a moment for generational change, and when I say generational change, I’m not talking about age. I’m talking about a mindset and a willingness to try something different,” state Del. Irene Shin said at a candidate forum this week.
The sole publicly available poll of the race came from a super PAC supporting Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff, that showed him with a commanding lead of 41 percent earlier this month. Shin and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky trailed with 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively, while 36 percent of voters were undecided.
Earlier this week, a post on Connolly’s X account urged people to support Walkinshaw, whom the congressman had endorsed before he died. Walkinshaw also has the support of Rep. Donald S. Beyer Jr. and former Rep. Jennifer Wexton, both ex-colleagues of Connolly’s from neighboring districts, as well as the center-left New Democrat Coalition Action Fund.
Pekarsky has earned endorsements from Democratic leaders in the state Senate, while Shin has the support of New Jersey Sen. Andy Kim, whom she’s touted as someone who challenged the establishment.
Starting gate
Big Apple shocker: Zohran Mamdani’s apparent win in this week’s Democratic primary for New York City mayor shocked the political world, with Democrats searching for lessons from the 33-year-old’s grassroots campaign and Republicans vowing to tie the self-described democratic socialist to Democrats in battleground races.
Taking on Kaptur: In Ohio, state Rep. Josh Williams and former state Rep. Derek Merrin are the latest Republicans to launch campaigns to unseat Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. A populist from the heartland with working-class roots, Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, but redistricting could make her Trump-won district even less hospitable for Democrats.
Scott Brown’s return: Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown is making another comeback bid from New Hampshire, seeking the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the woman who defeated him in 2014. “In Washington, we haven’t been represented by the right people,” Brown said in his announcement.
Garcia wins Oversight election: Rep. Robert Garcia will be the next ranking Democrat on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Roll Call’s Jim Saksa reports. The second-term California lawmaker won an internal vote to succeed Connolly, the late Virginia congressman. Asked why he won, Garcia said, “I think we’re looking at expanding the tent.”
Take five: Freshman Rep. Suhas Subramanyam went from declining invitations from friends to campaign for both John Kerry and George W. Bush in 2004 to working as a staffer on the Hill and in the White House, and now he’s a Democratic congressman from Virginia. Subramanyam talks to Roll Call’s Jackie Wang about those early experiences in politics.
ICYMI
RIP: Former New York Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who ran for Congress after her husband was killed in a 1993 mass shooting on a train in which her son was also injured, has died at age 81. McCarthy, a Democrat, served nearly two decades in the House, where she was an advocate for gun control legislation and also active on education policy.
RIP: Former Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold, 63, died this week from a heart attack after struggling with chronic liver disease, The Texas Tribune reported. The Republican was first elected to the House in the tea party wave of 2010, upsetting Democratic Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz. He served until 2018, when he resigned after allegations of sexual harassment and an ethics investigation.
Off-year redistricting: The Wisconsin Supreme Court, controlled 4-3 by liberals, declined to hear a pair of legal challenges to the state’s congressional map, a blow to Democrats’ hopes of expanding the House battleground next year. Meanwhile, in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has called a special session of the state Legislature next month amid a push by President Donald Trump’s political team for the state to redraw its congressional map to create more Republican-friendly seats. Abbott has so far declined to say whether redistricting will be on the agenda.
Taking on Massie: Trump has raised the temperature in his long-standing battle with libertarian-leaning Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. Trump’s political team recently launched Kentucky MAGA, a super PAC with the aim of defeating Massie in the 2026 Republican primary.
Houston, we have a candidate: Texas Democrat Terry Virts, a retired astronaut who served as commander of the International Space Station, launched a campaign for Senate this week. Virts, who also cited his Air Force experience in his announcement, is challenging Republican incumbent John Cornyn, who faces a tough intraparty fight from state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
They’re running (or could run): Siouxland Chamber of Commerce President Chris McGowan has launched a campaign for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s 4th District, where GOP incumbent Randy Feenstra is exploring a run for governor. In New Hampshire’s open 1st District, West Point graduate Chris Bright kicked off his second run for the seat; he finished 4th in the 2024 GOP primary. In New York, Republican state Assemblyman Robert Smullen is weighing a run for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s North Country seat if she opts for a gubernatorial bid. And in New Jersey, Morris Township Deputy Mayor Jeff Grayzel tells the New Jersey Globe he intends to run for the Democratic nomination for the 11th District if Rep. Mikie Sherrill is elected governor this year.
Family affair: Republican Jim Kingston is running for Georgia’s vacant 1st District, a seat his father, Jack Kingston, previously held for 22 years. The district’s GOP incumbent, Rep. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter, is running for Senate. In South Carolina, state Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of Rep. Joe Wilson, made his bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination official this week. In Michigan, Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald, the sister of freshman Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, has announced a campaign for state attorney general. And in Arizona, Mylie Biggs, the daughter of GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Andy Biggs, is running for state Senate.
Guv roundup: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, seen as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, said Thursday that he will seek a third term next year. He is expected to name a new running mate, with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton running for Senate. South Carolina state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, who unsuccessfully ran for the House in 2018, also joined Wilson this week in the GOP race to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster. Rep. Ralph Norman is weighing a run as well and says he’ll announce his plans on July 27. And in Maine, state Sen. Rick Bennett, a former chair of the state GOP and two-time congressional candidate, will run for governor as an independent. Democratic incumbent Janet Mills is ineligible for a third consecutive term.
Nathan’s notes
CQ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections is taking issue with a recent release from the Iowa Republican Party that slammed Democrat Christina Bohannan as a “two-time loser” as she launched her latest challenge to GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
As Nathan writes, losing previous elections is no indication you can’t win a future one. Look no further than Miller-Meeks herself.
And in their podcast this week, Nathan and Inside Elections deputy editor Jacob Rubashkin preview next month’s Congressional Women’s Softball Game with co-organizer Atalie Ebersole of the Pet Food Institute and At the Races alumna and friend Bridget Bowman of NBC News. The At the Races team still remembers the time Bridget hit an out-of-the-park home run.
What we’re reading
Budget vote impact: Republicans in Congress supported legislation that would cut federal spending for Medicaid and food stamps, shifting some of the funding responsibility to the states. Now some of those members are running or considering runs for governor, a position that would require them to navigate the impact of their vote, HuffPost reports.
Sharing her story: Florida Rep. Kat Cammack spoke to The Wall Street Journal about her experience with life-threatening pregnancy complications last year. Late Wednesday, the Republican congresswoman said her offices had to be evacuated because of “imminent death threats” against her, her family and staff after publication of the article.
Three years later: Senate Democrats marked the three-year anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling that overturned federal abortion rights with a renewed push to remind voters of the issue, The Washington Post reports.
The Trump coalition: The Pew Research Center analyzed the numbers behind Trump’s 2024 victory and found a coalition of voters that was far more ethnically and racially diverse than it was in 2020 or 2016.
Last great American dynasty? Politico examines the decline of the country’s more prominent political families through the lens of Andrew Cuomo’s defeat in the New York City mayoral primary.
Eldest daughter vibes: ELLE magazine explores the friendship between New Jersey’s Sherrill and former Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, this year’s Democratic nominees for governor of their respective states. Both have national security backgrounds, and each is the eldest of three sisters.
The count: 14 million
That’s the approximate number of Americans registered to vote in states or localities that employ some version of ranked choice voting, which allows voters to rank candidates by preference.
Around 1 million New York City residents cast ranked choice ballots this week in primary elections for offices including mayor and City Council. Ranked choice tabulations will be released next week, although Mamdani, the leading candidate, appears to be on track to claim the Democratic nomination.
According to the FairVote advocacy group, as of April, ranked choice voting is being used in 52 jurisdictions across the country, including two states (Alaska and Maine), three counties and 47 cities.
Opponents of ranked choice voting have argued that the prospect of the leading candidate in the first round not ending up the winner is evidence that the practice is dangerous and results in outcomes unrepresentative of the voters’ will.
They point to the system in right-leaning Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola won two elections for the state’s sole House seat before losing last year. Alaska voters narrowly approved a measure to retain the practice last year, but opponents will try again next year to eliminate the practice. Seventeen states — home to 38.5 million, or 22 percent, of America’s voters — have enacted bans on ranked choice voting.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
Saturday’s “firehouse primaries” are expected to decide the nominees for the special election in Virginia’s 11th District. Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern for Democrats and 4 p.m. Eastern time for Republicans.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: A speedy special election appeared first on Roll Call.
