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Ben James

Astonishing Wales statistic tells you exactly how they will look to beat South Africa again

Last weekend, Wales made just 100 metres with ball in hand.

In their historic victory over the world champions, their first over the Springboks on South African soil, they made less metres across 80 minutes than any other Welsh team in the past decade. It could well be longer, but rugby's limited grasp of statistical collation is severely hampered.

Odds are that it's been an awfully long time since Wales made less than 100 metres in a match. To highlight how much of a rarity this is, the website Cardiff RFC Fans - which collates metres per tackle data for countless matches - posted on Twitter that Wales' gain of 1.11m per tackle, with South Africa making 90 tackles, is lower than all but eight of the last 1,330 games in the United Rugby Championship - and the tournament's other guises before that.

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It's lower than each of the last 940 Gallagher Premiership fixtures and all but two of 1,212 Top14 matches. The last time Wales even got close to such a figure in the past ten years was the opening fixture of the 2015 Six Nations.

When Wales fell to defeat against England in Cardiff that year, they managed just 109 metres with ball in hand. Of course, metres aren't everything.

In 2016, Wales made 557 metres in a 36-22 defeat in New Zealand, while their previous lowest in the last five years, as noted by rugby statistician Russ Petty on Twitter, was 118 in the 2019 Six Nations finale against Ireland. Even with a relatively low number of metres made, the victory couldn't be described as anything other than dominant.

But the fact that Wales made so little with ball in hand is a fascinating statistic that you can read into as much as you'd like. Last year, the Lions made a similarly small number of 105 metres in the second Test against the Springboks.

However, they lost 27-9 as indiscipline saw the world champions pull away convincingly in Cape Town. Afterwards, Warren Gatland's team were criticised for their brand of rugby - especially as they'd won the first Test with 255 metres made.

Funnily enough, the Lions' and Wales' metres made for the first two Tests against South Africa are very similar - with Wales making 216 in Pretoria first up. The only difference - and it's a big one - are the results.

The Lions, as most people would probably expect, won the game where they made over 200 metres, but Wales won the one where they made very little with ball in hand.

Both Wales and the Lions have played South Africa in the way that most in the game believe you need to play them. If the running metres are low, it's only because the kicking game is the best way to create anything against their defence for three-quarters of the pitch.

Wales, to their credit, have done that well so far. This Saturday won't see them change tack, even if the game is now back at sea level.

As one current international told WalesOnline this week: "They are very well set up in defence with a big jackal threat.

"Wales should stick with the kicking game. It's been brilliant, they've had lots of joy with it and have won a lot of transition ball back."

Wales, like the Lions last year, know that you won't get much purchase from the South African defence outside of their own 22, so putting the ball in the air is the best route. That's why the metres made statistic can, in this case, not seem to go with the result.

You're ceding possession early and often in the hope of winning it back further up the field. That might not always work, given the lottery of aerial competition, but it certainly helps you get a grasp in the territorial stakes.

Where Wales know they can get at South Africa is from strike moves in the home side's 22. The winning try last weekend was one such example.

Given how well South Africa scramble in midfield, with inside defenders adept at folding under to cover the wide channels once their aggressive blitz pushes up from the wings and 13 channel, it's hard to really make inroads around the middle of the pitch. But the 22 is an area where you can look to attack them early in the set.

"Their up and in defence, either from set piece ball or in phase play, is where they can be very vulnerable," the same international told us. "Once they turn their bodies in completely, it's very difficult to then turn back out and stop the play.

"Gareth Anscombe's try assist was the perfect example of that. As an attacker, it's very tempting to creep laterally into the space, particularly the guys who are connected to the 10, because the space is always out wide against South Africa and it will always be there.

"But it's important that the fly-half has got options off him and that's when the defence does struggle. Loading up with options around their 13-wing connection is where the joy will come."

Ultimately, what got Wales over the line in Bloemfontein was some smart manipulation of the defence through ball movement - with the pull-back pass from Josh Navidi to Tomos Williams pulling in South African defenders.

Wales finding the right moments to make use of that ball movement and adding an extra pass to a phase - which wasn't always the case for much of the 80 minutes as they tended to try force offloads to get around the Boks' blitz - will be key. Speed of transfer is just as important as picking the moment - with a well-timed pass killing the defence's ability to read what is coming

What could become equally important in the final stages of this deciding Test, should Wales consider it, will be the use of two playmakers. It's an idea Wayne Pivac has toyed with throughout his time, with the likes of Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny McNicholl offering themselves up as a playmaking option from the back-three.

Liam Williams and Nick Tompkins have done so to an extent, but with Anscombe on the bench, Wales could certainly consider bringing him on as a full-back in order to work with Dan Biggar. Certainly, the Ospreys fly-half's wide passing range will come into play later in the Test - just as it did last time. If it's tight and Pivac doesn't want to lose the experience of his captain, it's an option to consider.

"South Africa have big men in their defence," added the international. "They are very confrontational and man-focused defenders which means a lot ball movement can cause them to struggle a bit in the middle of the park with swimming off. I think the tempo and urgency to ruck can also take away their jackal threat.

"A 10 who's a running threat and good ball movement can cause them problems. The ball movement from Navidi and Tomos Williams and then the speed of transfer from Anscombe, along with the proximity to goal-line, means the defence is never going to recover. I think two playmakers could work against them to break them down."

Wales didn't set out to make just 100 metres last weekend. They'll be hoping to make more this weekend - particularly if something comes off on transition ball, as was the case for Louis Rees-Zammit's two tries in Pretoria.

But don't be surprised if the metres are relatively low again. The groundwork for a Test victory this weekend will once again, ironically, be in the air.

Hopefully, from there, Wales can find a clinical edge if and when they get into the 22 to turn whatever territory they get into points. They'll look to the tried and tested to do so, but maybe, just maybe, there's something else up their sleeve as well.

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