When it comes to the financial arms race, Liverpool cannot hope to compete with the far more lavishly funded clubs in the Premier League and Europe. Everything they do has to be geared towards extracting the maximum possible benefit.
This is most obviously seen in the transfer market. Rival fans, pundits and even Liverpool supporters have questioned why their club signed the likes of Andy Robertson, Gini Wijnaldum or Diogo Jota, but their subsequent success showed the analysts at Anfield usually know what’s best for Jurgen Klopp’s squad.
While identifying relatively low cost but effective signings is the most notable use of statistical analysis, it can also have an impact on the pitch during games. Football coach Chris Summersell has recently identified a way in which the Reds’ differ greatly from the rest of the top flight with respect to how they deal with opposition attacks outside the penalty area.
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The research for his article was prompted by Lautaro Martinez’ long-range winner for Inter Milan at Anfield. Though the strike was eye-catching enough on its own, Summersell’s attention was drawn to the fact Virgil van Dijk stood off and allowed the Argentine to shoot, rather than attempting to block his effort.
What would be considered poor defending by most other centre-backs must have been a conscious choice if the world’s greatest defender did this, right? It certainly looks that way when viewing a compilation video of Liverpool players reacting in similar fashion in other matches this season.
Summersell found that the Reds stand far apart from their Premier League peers in this sense. Where Liverpool have blocked 15 percent of opposition open play shots from outside the box, the next lowest figure is Brentford on 26 percent, with six teams being up in the forties.
And though Klopp’s side were bottom of the division for this stat last season too, in 2020/21 they still blocked 29 percent of long-range goal attempts. This figure may have been lower had they been able to field a far more consistent back four than injuries allowed them to, but the fact remains the Premier League’s least shot blocking side from outside the box has halved their efforts this term.
It’s such a shift that it cannot be accidental. As Liverpool conceded two deflected goals from outside the box (and three in total) in their 7-2 loss at Villa Park, that match may have prompted a change of thinking with regards to the costs or benefits of blocking opposition shots.
Yet at first glance it could be argued that this tactical switch has not worked out. Burnley provide an extreme counter example to Liverpool, as they have blocked 49 percent of open play shots from outside the penalty area, but they have conceded four times from shots collectively worth 5.1 expected goals ( per Understat ). In other words, it could be said they’ve prevented a goal by blocking long-range shots as often as they have.
The opposite has been emphatically true for the Reds, with 76 chances valued at just 2.6 xG resulting in six goals conceded. There have been several which proved to be costly too, not least Kevin De Bruyne’s deflected effort in the 2-2 draw with Manchester City. Points were also dropped against Brighton, West Ham and Chelsea in part thanks to long range goals, leaving only the strikes by Newcastle and Norwich of those from outside the box which ultimately did not matter too much.
Even allowing for the unlucky goals conceded against Aston Villa, Liverpool’s opponents scored four goals from outside the box against them last season, from 4.8 expected goals. Assuming their increased reluctance to block in this campaign is deliberate, it doesn’t appear to have helped them.
Unless you dig a little deeper, that is. While the Reds have conceded around three goals more than they should have from outside the box, they have let in an incredible 11 fewer than expected from shots within the penalty area.
Some of that will be down to them having arguably the best goalkeeper in the world, of course. But with nine games to go they’ve only blocked one fewer shot in total than in the whole of last season, and the proportion blocked has only been higher in one campaign under Klopp (2018/19). If Van Dijk and his colleagues are getting in the way of fewer long-range shots then they must be blocking more efforts in the box for these numbers to add up.
And blocked or not, the opposition chance quality in Liverpool’s box is the second lowest it has been since Klopp took charge (again behind 2018/19) at 0.15 expected goals per shot. This again helps explain why teams have scored far fewer goals than they should have in the Reds’ penalty area.
No strategy is flawless. It appears that allowing opposition players to shoot more freely from distance has led to some costly goals. But when teams take those shots from distance, they are not then creating higher quality opportunities which are far more likely to lead to a goal. For a club that must milk every marginal gain they can, this looks set to be another overall success.
