TAMKUHI RAJ: UP Congress president Ajay Kumar Lallu, the man who slogged hard for the past two-and-a-half years to revive the grand old party in Uttar Pradesh, faces a tough challenge to achieve his hat-trick from the Tamkuhi Raj seat that goes to poll on March 3.
Political analysts decode the situation. "The seat has almost an equal presence of the minority community, Brahmins, Dalits and backwards, about 15-17% (numbers can overlap), while 9% voters belong to the Nishad community and 7% hail from the Kurmi background," said Anil Pandey, a political commentator.
He added that the BJP has given the seat to Nishad Party, which has fielded Aseem Kumar Rai who is likely to attract the Nishad community voters.
Also, BJP voters may go with him especially with former two-time MLA (1991 and 1993 elections) Nand Kishor Mishra, who enjoys popularity among the people of Tamkuhi Raj across class and caste, batting for him.
The septuagenarian is believed to be working not just for Rai but also against Lallu. The reason: After being denied a ticket in 2017 elections, Mishra got disenchanted with the BJP and moved to SP. His candidature from the seat was certain till some last-minute change reportedly due to a tacit understanding between the Congress and Samajwadi Party to favour Lallu led to cancellation of Mishra's ticket.
Thereafter, the SP fielded Udai Gupta, who has been the financier and patron of Lallu over the past decade. Likewise, the BSP has fielded Sanjay Gupta. As a result, the backward votes may get divided between the three. The departure of Kurmi leader RPN Singh from Congress to BJP is also costing a handsome number of about 5-7,000 Kurmi votes.
The same votes are most likely to go with the Nishad Party candidate.
"He is a nice man but has grown too big to pay attention to our problems," remarked Ashu Gupta, a voter in Sarnehi area of the constituency having an electorate of 3.8 lakh.
A Congress sympathizer who has voted for Lallu over the past two elections, Ashok Singh said: "Luck and caste equations are not by his side this time, it seems. Only a miracle can fetch him victory in my opinion."
In all, Lallu's challenge of anti-incumbency has been complicated with the falling castle of caste. But he is putting his best foot forward. "I have always served my people. And will continue to do so. I am sure they will shower their love on me as they have done in the past two elections," Lallu said.
