Labour leads in six of eight English constituencies targeted in Lord Ashcroft’s latest polls, which show Ed Miliband’s party tied with the Conservatives in South Swindon.
The eight constituencies – Southampton Itchen, Croydon Central, South Swindon, City of Chester, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Wirral West, and Worcester – had all previously been polled by Ashcroft last year, so provide a good indication of how – and if – recent changes in national polling, which have seen the Tories catch up with Labour, are reflected at an individual constituency level.
Only in Worcester a Labour lead has turned into a Tory one. In Southampton Itchen, where the two parties were tied last year, Labour now holds an eight-point lead.
Although Labour’s lead in Croydon Central has been cut, from six to four, in all the other seats where the party leads the gap from the Tories has widened since last October.
Voting intentions from my latest round of marginal seats polling. Full details and my commentary on @ConHome, 12.00. pic.twitter.com/8w3v5mLpsO
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) March 17, 2015
In 2010, the Tory majority over Labour in these seats was between 8.8% and 10.6%.
Beyond the two main parties’ numbers, the most interesting change between the latest Ashcroft figures and October’s is the drop in Ukip support.
Voting intention figures for Nigel Farage’s party are down in all eight of the constituencies surveyed.
In several the fall is quite significant: from 15% to 10% in the City of Chester, from 19% to 13% in Croydon Central, from 24% to 15% in Halesowen and Rowley Regis, and from 19% to 14% in Nuneaton.
A sample of eight constituencies is of course small, but the good news for Miliband is that in these marginal seats at least, and despite the recent polling movement to the Tories, Labour is still holding on to the lead it held last year.
However, the Guardian’s latest projection of polls still shows the Conservatives as the largest party, on 277 seats. Labour is on 269, the Lib Dems on 25 and Ukip on four.
As things stand the Scottish National party, projected to win 52 seats, would remain critical to the formation of any stable government – and while Miliband may have ruled out a coalition with Nicola Sturgeon’s party, a close relationship with the SNP may well see the Labour leader enter Downing Street in May.
