Less than a year ago, we were reeling from an electoral shock as the nation voted (just) in favour of leave. This morning, once again, we find ourselves struggling to understand an unexpected result. The talk is of youthful protest, of disaffected older voters, of vengeful remainers and much more. Yet, in the small hours of results day it is hard to be sure of what this electoral outcome is really telling us, other than confirming the depth of our divisions.
What have we learned so far?
Certainly, the result suggests that younger voters have turned out to vote in greater numbers than we might have expected. That said, given that overall turnout is hardly up on 2015, it may be that older voters, generally so reliable, have stayed at home, perhaps demonstrating a hostile response to the so-called dementia tax. Although this election started life as the “Brexit election”, other policies have dominated the campaign narrative, cutting through with voters and ultimately influencing the outcome.
Labour has continued to do well in London and other major cities, but its vote has also held up in some of the smaller towns that the Tories might have expected to win. It is fascinating that the Ukip vote, presumed to collapse to the Tories looks to have been more evenly divided between the two main parties. The pattern with the Liberal Democrats – losing Nick Clegg, yet regaining Vince Cable – is also somewhat unclear.
Unusually, at the start of this election, voters knew little about either of the main party leaders. They presumed that Theresa May was a strong leader in the mould of the previous Tory leader that she most reminded them of – Margaret Thatcher. Her campaign performance disappointed them and challenged that presumption. At the same time, many had low expectations of Jeremy Corbyn – expectations that he successfully exceeded with a vibrant, energetic campaign that spoke to the themes that many voters were concerned about.
BritainThinks ran qualitative panels of voters in six key constituencies throughout the campaign. They told different stories depending on voter demographics, locations and past behaviour. Our voters disagreed on much, but one thing they could all agree on was that they believed the worst outcome would be a hung parliament. This was driven partly by the perceived need for strength – our voters felt that wasn’t the best way to tackle the challenges that the country faces, particularly Brexit negotiations and the war on terror. It was also driven by negative views of the 2010-15 coalition – seen as symbolic of ineffectual government and broken promises.
It remains to be seen how the story will conclude, but, as the dust settles, it looks likely that this result, will, at least in the short term, accentuate rather than heal divisions. Instead we have the prospect of a minority Tory government limping forward: a “none of the above” result that gives no one cause for celebration.
