Despite the declaration of the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, rain continues to elude most parts of the State. With the State staring at a possibly bleak June, the situation appears not rosy in many of the reservoirs controlled by the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) where the storage levels are precariously low compared to the water levels in the previous year.
According to sources in the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the rain is unlikely to gain strength over Kerala at least for the next couple of weeks due to the absence of rain-producing systems. The sea surface temperature was relatively low during the summer months of April and May due to the copious pre-monsoon showers, one among the reasons for the weak precipitation, said officials.
S. Abhilash, Director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, said synoptic conditions such as lower winds and strong lower and upper air convergence are not favourable for the strengthening of the monsoon for the time being. Further, the formation of offshore troughs used to have a bearing on the vigorous spell of rain over the State. However, this year, such offshore troughs are yet to take shape, one of the main reasons for the subdued rain, said Mr. Abhilash.
The State normally receives around 32.9% of the total southwest season rainfall in July, followed by June with 32.6%, August with 21 % and September 13%. But there has been a noticeable drop in the June-July rainfall in the past three years. The shortfall in rain was 33% and 20% in June and July respectively in 2021, and it was 17% and 29% in 2020 during these months, and 44% and 20% in 2019.
Similarly, although the IMD announced the onset of the southwest monsoon over the State on May 29, two days later than the earlier forecast date of May 27, one of the main criteria for declaring the arrival of that monsoon – that 60% of weather stations in Kerala should record 2.5 mm rain for two consecutive days – is yet to be fulfilled.
Though the situation does not reflect any crisis, the depleting water levels in power-generating reservoirs would be cause for concern if rain continues to elude the State, said officials.
