The fate of a family and the future of a franchise were inextricably linked the moment commissioner Adam Silver announced the Kings had selected Marvin Bagley III with the No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Bagley pumped a fist and pointed to the heavens. He hugged his parents, shook hands with his brothers and donned a Kings cap while making his way to the stage at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. He wasn’t Luka Doncic, the player so many Kings fans coveted, but Sacramento still thought Bagley was going to be special.
Three years later, with Bagley entering the final year of his rookie contract, there are still questions about the player’s fate and the franchise’s future. Bagley is still relatively unproven. The Kings are still caught in the clutches of a 15-year playoff drought. Both sides are coming to a crossroads, wondering where they go from here as the deadline nears for Bagley’s rookie-scale extension.
If they don’t agree to a deal by Oct. 18 — the day before the start of the 2021-22 NBA season — Bagley will become a restricted free agent next summer. Do the Kings want to make a long-term commitment to a player who has been plagued by injuries, slowing his development, frustrating fans and subjecting all parties to searing criticism? Does Bagley want to get a deal done now after everything he’s been through?
“Right now, I’m not worried about none of that,” Bagley told The Sacramento Bee. “The biggest thing for me is coming in every day, just focusing on the big goal of making the playoffs and just continuing to build winning habits. I think that’s my only focus, my teammates and just being around the guys and enjoying the moment.”
CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS
Bagley seems to be in the right frame of mind, recently saying he sees Sacramento as part of “God’s plan” for him. The team will welcome that approach after putting up with social media slights from the 22-year-old power forward and his father, but a decision must be made before the Kings play the Portland Trail Blazers in their season opener Oct. 20.
At this point, it’s not even clear if the two sides are talking. The Kings won’t discuss potential negotiations and Jeff Schwartz, Bagley’s agent at Excel Sports Management, declined to comment. Bagley said he doesn’t know if there will be an agreement before the start of the season.
“I don’t know anything,” Bagley said. “I’m focusing on what I can control, and that’s stepping out here every day in practice, focusing on these games we’ve got coming up, and just doing whatever I can to make sure I’m prepared and ready to go.”
Kings coach Luke Walton stopped short of predicting a breakout season for Bagley, but Walton has been pleased with Bagley’s work.
“He’s been good,” Walton said. “Everyone that has been in camp and given those opportunities — we’ve got a lot of guys in there, so not everyone’s getting the same opportunities — but the ones who have, have been impressive. Marvin is doing the things we’ve asked him to do and he looks good right now.”
This could be a make-or-break year for Bagley if he enters the season without a new deal. He has career averages of 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, but he missed 108 of 226 games due to injuries and struggled to grasp team concepts over his first three seasons with the Kings.
A number of players from the 2018 draft have already received extensions. Doncic signed a five-year, $210 million supermax deal with the Dallas Mavericks. Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets all received five-year, $172.5 million maximum contracts.
Bagley is eligible for the same max extension, but he won’t get one. The Athletic’s John Hollinger used his BORD$ method to project Bagley’s value at a paltry $20 million over four years, but Hollinger, a former NBA executive, conceded Bagley will command more as a former No. 2 pick.
“I didn’t include this in the analysis, but one big favor here is that players who are drafted highly tend to get paid on second contracts almost regardless of their performance,” Hollinger noted. “Players like Bagley and Jaren Jackson Jr. have that chip in their favor heading into the summer, and it would likely factor into any extension decision.”
KINGS CAN KEEP BAGLEY
If the Kings don’t re-sign Bagley now or trade him during the season, they could be headed toward another restricted free agency situation after losing Bogdan Bogdanovic to the Atlanta Hawks in 2020.
The Kings would still have an opportunity to match any offer Bagley receives, but securing the right of first refusal would require a rather hefty $14.8 million qualifying offer. One NBA agent said the Kings might not bother to extend the qualifying offer because, as of now, Bagley isn’t worth that kind of money, a scenario that would make him an unrestricted free agent.
The Kings are coming to a crossroads as the deadline for Bagley’s extension draws near. The fate of the player and the future of the franchise are still unclear, but Bagley said he’s keeping his head in the game.
“I can’t worry about things I can’t control,” Bagley said. “I feel like if we do what we’re supposed to do, all the little things, then other things will take care of themselves, so that’s all I’m worried about, making sure I’m getting better every day and taking the right steps in the right direction.”
