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India may overtake China as world's most populous nation

India's last census was carried out in 2011 when the country's population stood at 121 crore. (Pradeep Gaur/Mint )

Analysts have pointed out, the soaring cost of living -- as well as a growing number of women in the workforce and seeking higher education -- as reasons behind the slowdown. 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announcement comes at a time when China's economic growth fell to its second-lowest in five decades, registering a paltry three per cent increase in 2022.

According to a recent report by the World Population Prospects 2022 by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023.

According to the report, India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, more than China's 1.317 billion by the middle of this century.

“China and India are countries with a big population and we have ample resources in the working force. This is a strong internal dynamic for economic development," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.

“The two countries should take advantage of their population dividend to develop each other’s respective national development and make greater contributions to the international community," he said.

According to the NBS, China registered about 9.56 million new-borns last year, down from 10.62 million in 2021.

China’s birth rate stood at 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2022, down from 7.52 in 2021, it said. The death rate nationwide stood at 7.37 per 1,000 people last year, putting the natural growth rate at negative 0.6 per 1,000 people.

The last time China reported a population decline was in 1961.

China’s concern is not simply a declining population, which was accentuated by the decades-old 'one child policy', scrapped in 2016, but also a rapidly ageing population.

As per the revised policy, Chinese people can now have up to three children. China conducts a nationwide population census every decade, with the latest being done in 2020.

In a non-nationwide census year like 2022, China runs a population sampling survey on November 1 each year, meaning the number of deaths for December is not available, an official from the NBS said.

China's total population size peaked in 2022, much earlier than expected, which means the country's population will maintain a negative growth from 2023 or enter an era of negative growth, Cai Fang, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said previously.

(With inputs from agencies)

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