On Thursday the December labour force figures will come out, quite likely showing good news.
The latest payroll job index released on Wednesday covers the same period – up to the week ending 18 December – and it revealed better numbers than in November:
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While the range of numbers from the best performing state or territory (WA), to the worst (ACT), remains relatively large, overall things looked to be returning to normal after the lockdowns in the second half of 2021 in NSW, Victoria and the ACT.
And to be honest, even with those lockdowns, the job market in 2021 was generally much better than the annus horribilis of 2020:
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And so it is quite likely that the December unemployment rate will stay nicely below 5% and we can take a deep breath and relax, realising the worst is behind us.
Or maybe not.
You see the December labour force figures, like the latest job index numbers, will come from a survey done in the first two weeks of December.
So let us check what the Covid case numbers were like then compared with now:
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In those first two weeks of December Omicron was decidedly on people’s minds, but the numbers were yet to takeoff.
It is a reminder that whatever you may hear about pushing through the virus, things remain so fluid that nearly two years into this pandemic the bureau of statistics is yet to attempt to provide trend numbers for its data because numbers are subject to changes from week to week.
The bureau does not even bother to provide seasonally adjusted figures for our international arrivals and departures because even that measure no longer makes sense.
And perhaps there is no greater data point for showing just how far we are from normal than the number of people visiting Australia.
In November last year the number of people who had arrived in Australia for a short-term stay surged to 20,860, up from just 4,310 people in October.
And while a 383% rise may sound big:
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In November 2019, when no one had any worries about pandemics and travel was easy, 815,910 people came here for a short-term stay, so we are 98% below that level.
Little wonder that yesterday prime minister Scott Morrison and treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced they would be providing a rebate on travel visas for students arriving here over the next eight weeks. And Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced that international travellers to that state will no longer need to isolate so long as they are double vaccinated.
But the problem is that both announcements came on the day that the US government advised its citizens “Do not travel to Australia due to Covid-19-related travel restrictions”.
That is certainly going to make the latest campaign by Tourism Australia that the Morrison government is allocating an extra $3m to, a tad more tricky.
The need for travellers is of course vital.
The lack of international tourists is horrendous for the hospitality industry:
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In December – and remember that was when things looked better – there were still 10% fewer jobs in accommodation than there were when the pandemic hit in March 2020. While air transport jobs, the worst hit sector in the entire economy, were down a full third.
But on the other side of the ledger is the damage the lack of backpackers and international students does to the supply of workers.
The halt of international university students especially has seen the number of people in the labour force aged 20-24 fall by approximately 5% – or about 90,000 people:
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It’s not that there is no work for those in their early 20s – in fact a higher percentage of those in their early 20s are working now than in the past decade:
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But what the government is after is labour that will work in the regions and in jobs with little prospects and often fewer protections.
Morrison announced the government will also rebate the visa application fee for backpackers. “My message to them is ‘come on down, come on down now …’,” he said.
He suggested that they “join our workforce and help us in our agricultural sector, in our hospitality sector, and so many of the other parts of the economy”.
But while it is clear there are regions across the country suffering labour shortages given there are also about 105,000 unemployed people in their early 20s, the concern is not about the push to get more backpackers working here, but that the push is for workers who are more likely to be exploited.
While the labour force figures and other economic data are yet to return to normal, what must not return is the plethora of wage theft and abuse directed to those here on short-term visas, all done in the name of curing labour shortages.
Greg Jericho writes on economics for Guardian Australia
