Fewer Covid-19 tests are being processed for areas outside of Auckland, Ministry of Health data shows. David Williams reports
Analysis: Many important statistics seem to be heading in the right direction.
The Covid-19 case numbers announced yesterday dropped, and the Ministry of Health said two cases from the latest outbreak had now recovered.
Almost all cases in recent days have been in Auckland – an important factor for those areas outside of our biggest city about to drop an alert level. Vaccination rates continue to surge, despite a one-day pause because of lockdown, although that raises concerns about our stocks.
Further wastewater testing in Christchurch showed positive results last week were most likely from cases in managed isolation.
At yesterday’s post-Cabinet briefing, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said modelling suggests the effective reproduction number of the virus has dropped below 1, meaning case numbers should continue to decline.
“These are all encouraging signs that our lockdown is working as intended, breaking chains of transmission, and gradually drawing the net around the outbreak.”
There are concerning elements, of course, especially the 37 people in hospital, and five in ICU.
But many people outside Auckland and Northland will be encouraged by the broader trends and welcome, with some relief, the drop to Alert Level 3 at midnight tonight.
One reason for pause, however, might be a recent decline in community testing levels – so important for detecting new cases.
First, the bouquet from the Ministry of Health’s testing figures.
Three quarters of tests processed between August 24 and August 29, inclusive, were from the three Auckland DHB areas. At almost 147,000 tests, that’s a 77 percent improvement on the previous six-day period.
Testing dropped at all other DHBs, with some decreases significant.
There were only 81 tests processed from South Canterbury – that’s 0.1 percent of the population – over those six days compared with 445 between August 17 and August 22. Only four tests from that region were processed on Sunday.
Other DHB areas in single figures on Sunday were Wairarapa (8) and West Coast (9).
Nationwide, tests processed from last weekend reached just 37,271 compared to 71,371 the previous weekend. Auckland alone had 40,809 of those tests.
But the figures from Waitematā, Counties-Manakau and Auckland DHBs dropped by more than a quarter to 29,550 last weekend. To be fair, though, those DHBs tested more than 8 percent of their population over the six days.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was asked specifically if she was satisfied with the level of testing in the community, and whether that was a possible reason case numbers had dropped.
“There were times, of course, where 10,000 we would think was a fairly solid number. Sunday has always been a bit lower.”
(Between August 22 and the following Sunday, community testing numbers dropped from 34,454 to 15,065.)
“But I do want to see really solid ongoing testing number,” Ardern said.
There will be days where a large number of close contacts of positive cases will have their day 12 tests, Ardern said, which would push numbers up.
“But I don’t think it’s fair to say we’ve got those numbers because we didn’t have enough people necessarily tested.”
(On Monday, August 23, the Ministry of Health announced 35 new cases, compared to 53 yesterday.)
Ardern concluded: “But again, I’m not making any judgement from today’s numbers – I’ll look at tomorrow, I’ll look at the next day’s and we’ll see what trend emerges.”
Bloomfield put a brave face on testing figures yesterday, pointing to the country’s seven-day rolling average – including those from managed isolation and quarantine hotels, presumably – of 34,620.
“This high rate of testing is giving us increasing confidence that we are finding any cases of Covid-19 out there. We need to keep doing so, so if you have been at a location of interest or you have any respiratory symptoms or symptoms that could be Covid-19, wherever you are in the country, please do get a test.”
Lab test numbers are coordinated nationally and reported daily by the Ministry of Health. The figures won’t match numbers from DHBs because they’re based on tests processed.
Also, the numbers are reported by the DHB of residence, based on a person’s national health index number, not where they were tested. Testing numbers can change if a person’s DHB of residence is updated.
Ministry of Health group manager of Covid-19 immunisation, testing and supply Darryl Carpenter says current testing volumes are about five times higher than normal. “It is important we maintain a high level of daily testing.”
The Prime Minister said without the Alert Level 4 lockdown, some modellers estimated daily case numbers might have hit 550 people by now. For context, she pointed to a surge in cases overseas, especially in the United States, where the daily hospitalisations have reached 100,000 people, more than its last winter peak.
“The sacrifice everyone is making is so important and it is making a difference,” Ardern said. “The more we do to limit our contact, the faster we exit these restrictions – and more importantly still, the more lives we save.”
Testing locations can be found at the Healthpoint website, while the Ministry of Health lists locations of interest.
Those who were at a location of interest at relevant times, or who have cold and flu symptoms, should call Healthline: 0800 358 5453
