Jon Heyman’s typo-filled, and quickly refuted, report about Aaron Judge signing with the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night had some real consequences in betting markets.
While baseball fans were making every single Arson Judge joke imaginable, baseball bettors may have noticed a dramatic shift in the Giants’ odds to win the 2023 World Series.
Some sportsbooks, like BetMGM, reacted almost immediately to Heyman’s report, moving San Francisco from +4000 to win the title to +2500. Nearly 10 minutes later, when Heyman corrected that Judge had not signed with the Giants, their odds moved right back to +4000.
DraftKings moved the Giants odds from +3500 to +2500 when it looked like Judge was going west. That line has since shifted back to +4000, in line with BetMGM.
FanDuel remains a bit more conservative, listing the Giants at +5000 to win the 2023 World Series after all the dust settled.
It was a rare look at how arguably the most valuable baseball player in 2022 would have impacted a big money team in one of the sport’s largest markets. It also shows how quick some oddsmakers are to try to shift the lines before bettors can pounce on new information.
he deleted it but the internet will not forget arson judge pic.twitter.com/jG96W0CFvk
— Brian Floyd (@BrianMFloyd) December 6, 2022
Of course, the markets shifted again on Wednesday morning when multiple sources confirmed, for real this time, that Judge was returning to the Yankees on a nine-year, $360 million deal.
Aaron Judge has agreed to a 9-year, $360 million contract with @Yankees.
Yankees move from +1100 to +850 to win World Series at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/B1YnFdNc7q
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 7, 2022
Any bettors who took the Giants’ odds after Heyman’s report are likely hoping San Francisco can still sign Carlos Correa and a few other stars to bump their title odds back up.
