MIAMI — If you go to the draft trade value chart for a dispassionate commentary on how the Miami Dolphins did in their gargantuan trades with the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles this is what it says:
The Dolphins virtually destroyed the 49ers in their trade on sheer points — trading one first-round pick worth about 2,200 points for three first-round picks worth approximately 3,200 points plus a 2022 third-round pick that we can estimate is worth another 190 points.
So strictly by the cold, hard numbers, the Dolphins gave up 2,200 points and picked up 3,390 points — a big win for the Dolphins.
Then Miami turned around and dealt two of their first-round picks, plus a fourth-round pick to the Eagles for their higher No. 1 pick this year (No. 6 overall) plus a fifth-round pick.
And rather than outline the entire math exercise, trust me when I tell you the Dolphins got 1,627.4 points and paid 2,149 points for the exchange.
So in this deal, completed minutes after the San Francisco trade, the Eagles came out ahead.
But trades cannot be gauged on points alone.
These moves will immediately be measured by the opportunities the Dolphins have given themselves and their trade partners. And ultimately, we all know they're gauged by what players ultimately replace those numbers and what those guys do on the field.
And none of us — nobody — knows how that's all going to work out.
We don't know if these twin towering trades will make the Dolphins contenders for years to come or merely fill the draft quiver of the next Dolphins general manager and head coach.
Anyone telling you it's definitely going to go one way or the other is fibbing to you.
But some things we do know. And those things matter.
So here goes:
Friday's trades tell you the Dolphins already know who they're willing to pick with their first selection. The trade back with San Francisco to No. 12 told us that player probably wasn't a value pick at Miami's No. 3 overall selection.
But when the Dolphins felt compelled to give up a 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles to rise to their current No. 6 overall spot, they were plainly saying that player or players they value with their first pick would have likely been gone by No. 12.
It's clear.
The only question is what player or players did the Dolphins have in mind when they rode their Friday afternoon roller coaster down the draft board and then back up again?
Let me tell you who it isn't: Not a quarterback.
Not Trevor Lawrence obviously, but also not BYU's Zach Wilson, not Ohio State's Justin Fields, not North Dakota State's Trey Lance and not Alabama's Mac Jones.
That's not all.
Also not Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson in 2021.
Because by trading out of the No. 3 spot and not being within reach of the draft's top five quarterbacks, the Dolphins basically eliminated themselves from a chance to have the most convincing argument with either the Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks for trading for either Watson or Wilson.
Those two teams, which may or may not still trade their veteran quarterbacks, would almost definitely want some quarterback juice in return for trading their accomplished veterans, and the only way the Dolphins could have convinced them was offering the No. 3 spot in the draft (along with other picks) to give them a chance to land one of those top five quarterbacks.
Now? It's iffy at best.
And because it's iffy at best, it's certain the Dolphins showed their hand about sticking with Tua Tagovailoa for 2021. This was starting to come into focus before Friday.
It's clear as day now.
So the biggest winner in Friday's trade frenzy? Tagovailoa.
If he didn't already believe the Dolphins were committed to him for this coming season when they named him the '21 starter and told him as much, he must believe it now that the long shadow of either Watson or Wilson seems gone.
(Only way it isn't is if the Texans or Seahawks would value Tagovailoa as their quarterback of the future in a trade, in which case Tagovailoa still wins).
So you know who Miami's QB1 is this year. And we also know that even as they are committing to Tagovailoa for 2021, they have flexibility beyond.
That's because Friday's addition of another first-round pick in 2023 gives Miami two first-rounders in 2023. And that puts the Dolphins in the enviable position of being able to make a move for a quarterback down the road if Tagovailoa somehow flubs.
And do you know who has allowed the Dolphins all this flexibility aside from general manager Chris Grier? Laremy Tunsil.
He should change his name to Herschel Walker II.
Because the former Dolphins left tackle, who was traded to the Houston Texans in 2019, has become the gift that keeps on giving.
The Dolphins traded Tunsil, receiver Kenny Stills and a couple of forgettable lesser picks to Houston for two first-round picks and a second-round pick and some players since departed.
Obviously, the two first-rounders and the second-rounder were the driving force in Miami agreeing to give up a future Pro Bowl left tackle.
But the No. 3 pick the Dolphins used to trade away Friday was originally Houston's pick.
So basically, the Dolphins traded Tunsil for four first-round picks, one second-round pick and a third-round pick.
Tunsil for a first-rounder in 2020.
In 2021.
In 2022.
And in 2023.
And a second-rounder in 2021.
And, oh yeah, and a third-rounder in 2022.
Jimmy Johnson wants his Walker trade back.
Obviously what makes or breaks all of this is whom the Dolphins ultimately pick.
But now that they've settled into the No. 6 overall selection as the first of their two first-round picks, we understand the Dolphins can be somewhat certain the first three selections of this draft will be quarterbacks.
With them selecting at No. 6, that means they can decide among LSU receiver Ja'Marr Chase, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, Alabama receiver Devonta Smith and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell as their first pick.
Two of those will be on the board when Miami selects.
If either the Falcons (picking fourth) or Cincinnati (picking fifth) select Sewell to protect their quarterbacks' blind side, the Dolphins will be able to pick among the three most dynamic playmaker prospects in the draft.
Chase.
Pitts.
Smith.
If Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow convinces management to pick Chase, his former LSU teammate, the Dolphins can still go with either Pitts or Smith, assuming the Falcons didn't pick one.
Even if both Sewell and Smith or Pitts are left at No. 6 the Dolphins still get a playmaker for their quarterback.
And, as we further understand, that quarterback in 2021 is going to be Tua Tagovailoa.
