For Tua Tagovailoa it was a hard decision to declare for the 2020 NFL draft. For the Miami Dolphins it will be a harder decision whether to pick the Alabama quarterback in the first round of that looming draft.
What this means is that despite the obvious connections we've seen between the Dolphins and Tua _ with club owner Stephen Ross and general manager Chris Grier attending his games and an entire season loosely based on a #TankforTua philosophy _ it's actually not a done deal.
And it might never be a done deal.
The Dolphins have internally made no commitment to picking Tua with their first pick in the first round, No. 5 overall, of next April's draft. That's also true of their second pick in the first round. Or their third pick in the first round.
Truth is the Dolphins, which did extensive work on multiple college quarterbacks this past season, could as easily pick another quarterback. Or no quarterback, if you believe what they've said publicly and privately.
And, I get it, nobody needs to show cards now for a draft that's three months away.
But eventually the Dolphins will have to either commit to having Tua as their guy. Or not. And the "or not" is currently strengthened by multiple layers of uncertainty.
About that Tua uncertainty: It is all about his health and injury history.
He is an elite college quarterback. He has elite accuracy. He's a winner. He's a great, great young man. Everything about him screams he's a top 5 NFL draft pick.
"Tua has probably had as much of an impact on our program here as any player that we've ever had," Alabama coach Nick Saban said Monday. "And I'm not just talking about as a football player. He's got great character, he's a great leader ... There's a spirit about him that's impacted myself and everyone around him in a very, very positive way.
"He's had great accomplishments on the field, but you probably don't fully understand the significance of the contributions he's made off the field with his teammates and the people who are around him everyday."
So Tua checks all the franchise quarterback boxes except for, well, durability. And that's a huge red flag.
This is Tua's known medical history:
March of 2018 fractured the index finger on his throwing hand that required surgery.
October and November of 2018 separate knee and quad injuries.
December of 2018 left ankle injury that required surgery.
October of 2019 right ankle injury that required surgery.
November of 2019 dislocated and fractured hip and required surgery.
That's a lot of pain and missed practices and games that a college powerhouse such as Alabama can overcome with its reams of talent at other positions. That's not the kind of injury history any NFL team wants from its potential first-round draft pick.
And the thing about the recovery from hip surgery is it's impossible to predict everything will be fine by draft day.
"These kind of things don't really take the doctors or take myself (into account)," Tua said Monday. "It boils down to one thing and I think that's faith. It boils down to that. Coming from a family that has a lot of it, I'm definitely willing to take that challenge."
Tua believing in himself is one thing. The Dolphins or another team believing enough to pick him high in the first round is another. And even Tua admits his status as that high draft pick is unsettled.
"I don't think I could tell you that. I don't think any of the teams could tell you that," Tua said. "It really depends on how the doctors' report goes with my MRI, my X-rays at the three-month mark. But then again what factors into this decision, too, was our faith. It's a leap of it."
Picking Tua early is going to take the Dolphins, or any team, to join their faith to the Tagovailoa family. Simple as that. The middle of March will be an important month for Tua because his recovery from surgery at the three- and four-month mark will go a long way in determining if he's ever going to be 100 percent.
The recovery by then will also determine his ability to work out for teams at a pro day, maybe in April.
"Yeah, I'm optimistic I'll be able to play this upcoming season.," Tua said. "But for me, right now, I'm more so worried about getting better soon as possible _ see what I can do. If I can do a pro day? If I can't do a pro day? I mean, and then you know, it's really all dependent on what the doctors have to say to the teams and what the results that come back."
Here's the bottom line: The Dolphins will have to decide if they're comfortable with all the medical information to commit to Tua. The Dolphins will have to decide if he's their guy _ ride or die.
It will require that kind of strong, unwavering commitment because the draft will test anyone wanting Tua atop the first round. Oh yeah, that's happening.
With the first three picks of the draft logically set up with LSU quarterback Joe Burrow to Cincinnati, Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young to the Washington Redskins, and Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas to Detroit, the New York Giants will almost definitely consider selling the fourth pick to the highest bidder.
And with multiple teams such as the Los Angeles Chargers (6th), and Jacksonville Jaguars (9th) sitting close behind Miami (5th), the Dolphins might actually have to trade up one spot to guarantee themselves of landing Tua.
All that, of course, depends on whether the Dolphins are totally sold on the quarterback.
So, yes, the Dolphins might have to trade up to pick a quarterback with a long injury history, not fully knowing if his hip injury will affect his mobility or his elite accuracy, not fully knowing if the kid will ever be as good in the pros as he was at Alabama.
So, yes, deciding whether to pick Tua Tagovailoa will be quite difficult for the Dolphins.
