The Sweet 16 matchup between Arizona and Arkansas is one of the most highly anticipated games of the round.
John Calipari is a legendary coach, and the Razorbacks are on a roll after winning the SEC Tournament.
The spread (Arizona -8.5) is questionable after the Wildcats struggled down the stretch against Utah State. The game could potentially come down to the final few possessions.
Here’s my preview for the matchup.
No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 1 Arizona
Thursday, March 26
6:45 pm PT, CBS
San Jose, CA
Is he the coach that he thinks he is? Or is he a perennial March Madness bust that’s never able to get past the Sweet 16?
What happens in this game is massive for Lloyd’s reputation and for Arizona basketball as a whole.
Arkansas has one of the top offenses in the country.
John Calipari’s team is No. 2 nationally in points per game, No. 2 in fast break points, No. 11 in three-point percentage, and No. 10 in field goal percentage.
The Razorbacks run a faster pace than the Wildcats and turn the ball over less.
Read that again: a high-scoring, fast-paced offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. That’s a scary combination.
Arizona can’t commit turnovers against an elite offense like that. Nor can the Cats allow Arkansas to have second-chance opportunities.
If they do, the season could end in the Sweet 16.
So, how do the Wildcats win?
Defense and rebounding.
Lloyd’s team is No. 6 nationally in field goal percentage defense and No. 3 overall in rebound margin. The Cats must dominate the glass and contest every shot.
Any defensive breakdowns along the perimeter will be converted into scores.
Lloyd’s players must be on point with their switching when Calipari inevitably runs the high pick-and-roll action that the Wildcats have struggled to defend at times.
Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas take the lion’s share of the shots for the Hogs. The duo leads the scoring for Arkansas, checking in at 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-5, respectively.
It sounds like a defensive job that’s right up the alley of Ivan Kharchenkov, Brayden Burries, and Jaden Bradley. Staying out of foul trouble could be critical.
But the X-Factor might be the battle between Trevon Brazile and Koa Peat.
The players are mirror images of each other, except Brazile is a senior and slightly taller. Whichever plays better is likely to lead his team to a win.
Yet, putting aside the individual matchups, Arizona must be efficient when it has the ball.
Fortunately, Arkansas is not a good defensive team.
The Razorbacks allow 80.3 points per game, which would put them 14th in the Big 12. That’s below the likes of Utah and Colorado.
They also don’t rebound the ball very well, either. The Hogs snag 36.3 per game, which would put them 10th in the Big 12.
If the Wildcats limit turnovers, rebound effectively, and defend the three, a trip to the Elite 8 could become a reality.
