A new poll from that state's flagship paper shows McCain with just a two-point lead over Obama, 46-44%. I find it pretty difficult to believe that McCain is going to lose Arizona. Still, I think Obama ought to arrange a weekend rally there for Saturday or Sunday.
Here's why. The Obama campaign, as I've been writing for weeks now, has been properly not-too-obsessed with short-term news-cycles victories. But I think this is one case where you want that kind of win. A large rally in McCain's backyard will get tremendous television coverage and will drive two days' worth of speculation on the cable nets about how McCain's situation has become so desperate that he can't even hold his home state. It will give Obama the smell of a winner, and McCain the odor of a loser.
And here's why that's important. It's hard for ideologically committed people to believe, but there is a chunk of voters who have no such commitments and who just want to vote for the winner.
They don't see a presidential election as that different from any other competition - the American Idol finale, the Rose Bowl - in which they don't have a strong rooting interest. They just want to be able to say, "I voted for the guy who won." Makes them feel like they called it. If Obama pulls off a big rally in Arizona, those voters will watch the coverage and tell themselves, "This is the guy who's gonna win." Could be worth a point or two in some states.
