Markets are reaching all-time highs… but will they hold? This week is packed with massive events that could flip the trend. Here's what traders and investors should watch day-by-day.
#1. The Fed is Expected to Hold, But Watch the Language
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep rates steady, again, at its July meeting this week. But don’t tune out! Any hints about rate cuts in September could ignite market reactions. Plus, internal dissent is growing at the Fed, with two Trump-appointed governors potentially pushing for cuts.
#2. Inflation’s Moment: The PCE Report
The latest PCE data drops Thursday, and it’s best-known as the Fed’s favored inflation measure. If the PCE shows inflation cooling, that’s favorable for a potential September rate cut. But if it heats up again? Expect more volatility.
#3. Q2 GDP Recession Watch
The first quarter of 2025 showed gross domestic product (GDP) swinging negative. If Q2 goes negative again, that’s a technical recession. While most analysts think it's unlikely, a surprise drop would spook markets hard — especially with the Fed on hold.
#4. Tariff Deadline Hits
President Trump’s trade deal with the EU is now official, including new 15% tariffs starting Aug. 1. But a deal with Canada is still missing. If no agreement is reached by Thursday, the U.S. could slap on 35% tariffs, throwing trade flows into chaos.
#5. All Week: Earnings Bonanza
This is the biggest earnings week of the quarter. Massive names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Exxon (XOM) all report. So far, S&P 500 Index ($SPX) earnings are up 3.2%, beating expectations. But any surprise misses from these giants could rattle sentiment quickly.
The Bottom Line
Markets are climbing, but there’s no shortage of landmines ahead. This week could mark the top… or fuel the next leg up. Stay alert, watch the data, and hedge your bets while the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is still low.
Watch our video breakdown to get the full scoop on incoming volatility catalysts:
Follow our daily posts on Instagram for breaking market insights, and check out our tools to track earnings trades in real-time.
On the date of publication, Barchart Insights did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
