Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, functions as an integrated downstream energy company. Valued at $49.4 billion by market cap, the company refines, supplies, markets, and transports petroleum products.
Shares of this refining giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. MPC has declined 10.2% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 16.4%. However, in 2025, MPC stock is up 16.4%, surpassing the SPX’s 9.7% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, MPC’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 3.1% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 24.2% returns on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s gains over the same time frame.
MPC’s weak performance can be attributed to a decline in refining throughput volumes and renewable diesel sales volumes.
On Aug. 5, MPC reported its Q2 results, and its shares closed down by 3.8% in the following trading session. Its EPS of $3.96 exceeded Wall Street expectations of $3.22. The company’s revenue stood at $34.1 billion, down 11.1% year over year.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MPC’s EPS to decline 22.4% to $7.54 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 19 analysts covering MPC stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and eight “Holds.”
This configuration is less bullish than two months ago, with 11 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy,” and one recommending a “Moderate Buy.”
On Aug. 10, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Theresa Chen maintained a “Buy” rating on MPC and set a price target of $176, implying a potential upside of 8.4% from current levels.
The mean price target of $184.67 represents a 13.8% premium to MPC’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $213 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 31.2%.
