The exit poll has found that the Lib Dems have not made much progress in terms of seats, and have seen less of a bounce in share of the vote than some of the more optimistic expectations for them made late in the campaign.
This is intriguing. It is quite possible that their share of the vote has gone up most where it can do them the least good, namely in seats with massive Labour majorities. Their national increase of four points might mask rises of 10 points in some places and a slippage of two in other places.
With Labour's vote slipping, the most probable scenario is that gains in seats such as Cardiff Central and Bristol West have been cancelled out by Conservative gains in rural seats such as Devon West and Torridge.
This would be a logical result of the recent strategy of outflanking Labour to the left, but it would also mean that the party faces ab dilemma. Should it consolidate its recent gains from Labour (and write off some rural seats to the Tories), or would it be a mistake to read too much into a temporary reaction against Blair and Iraq which would be reversed in the next election?
The Lib Dem's 52 seats in 2001 was a good result that strengthened Charles Kennedy's leadership. 54 seats in 2005 would be very worrying, and pose all sorts of questions about strategy - and even leadership.
