The Blackhawks have quickly emerged as one of the NHL’s biggest early-season surprises.
They’re 11-6-4 on the year, firmly holding a Central Division playoff spot, and 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Projected originally to be one of the league’s worst teams, the Hawks are currently 12th in points percentage.
Plus, goaltender Kevin Lankinen is leading the Calder Trophy race, coach Jeremy Colliton is near the top of the Jack Adams Award race and Patrick Kane is pushing into the Hart Trophy race.
But the 2021 season is only about one-third finished. Can the Hawks maintain this remarkable success through May 10?
Below are four reasons to believe they can — and four reasons to doubt that.
Reasons to believe
Goaltending. The Hawks’ .916 team save percentage ranks fifth in the NHL. And there are few statistics that teams would prefer a top-five ranking in more than that one.
Lankinen has translated years of impressive results at lower levels seamlessly to the NHL, cementing himself as a possible cornerstone goalie for the Hawks to build around long-term. Backup Malcolm Subban has also revived his career, finally delivering results equal to his talent. Neither seem likely to drop off in the season’s second half.
Patrick Kane. The Hawks’ best offensive player for a decade has elevated his play to a stratospheric level, taking Alex DeBrincat (20 points in 17 games) and the Hawks’ power play (second in the NHL at 32.8%) along for the starry ride.
Kane’s 31 points are the second-most he’s tallied through 21 games in his career; he’s the league’s leading scorer outside of the Canadian division. He’s improved defensively and off-ice, too.
Youth improvement. The Hawks have achieved this success despite playing seven or eight rookies every game.
Pius Suter and Philipp Kurashev are both top-six in rookie scoring and Brandon Hagel’s tenacity has been equally impactful. Defensemen Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin — although Beaudin was sent to the AHL on Friday — have all played sizable roles in front of fellow rookie Lankinen.
And those players are only going to improve with every passing week.
Jeremy Colliton. Speaking of Colliton, the Hawks’ long-underestimated coach deserves immense credit for the confidence, smart decision-making and tight chemistry he has ingrained in this team.
His player-development expertise and communication-focused leadership have yielded great results.
Reasons to doubt
Possession rate. The Hawks are the league’s 29th-ranked team in both shot attempt and scoring chance ratio. Last season, they were just 21st and 23rd, respectively, in those categories.
Great goaltending, good finishing and solid special teams can help overcome losing the even-strength possession battle, but only to an extent. The Hawks will eventually get burned by all that extra time spent in their own zone.
Upcoming schedule. After this weekend’s back-to-back against the lowly Red Wings, the Hawks’ next 11 games are exclusively against the Lightning (five times), Panthers (four times) and Stars (two times) — the defending Stanley Cup finalists and this season’s other biggest surprise.
The Hawks’ record will almost certainly take a hit during that brutal stretch.
Youth inexperience. As exciting as the Hawks’ many young players are, their future potential is balanced out by their present inexperience.
As the games become progressively more intense, more physical and more important, that will be a weakness. In fact, the Hawks have already lamented their lack of “killer instinct” in the first 21 games. Expect more reminders of that to come.
Randomness. Colliton spoke arguably hockey’s greatest truism Thursday: “This game can be random.”
Two teams can play a 6-5 thriller, then a 2-0 snoozer, two days apart. The league’s best team can, and sometimes does, lose to its worst team. Dominant performances can turn into losses because of heroic goaltending or fluky bounces.
Hockey’s unpredictability can turn a team’s fortune at any time — especially a team that seems to be defying the odds thus far.
