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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Mark Sweney

Are Google and MySpace killing Microsoft?

The news that Google is to power search and ad services on MySpace in a $900m deal is clearly a resounding endorsement of the earning potential of Rupert Murdoch's relatively new acquisition.

In one swift deal the $580m price tag News Corporation paid for the fledgling MySpace last year - a figure that many observers thought would possibly never be recouped - suddenly appears to be a bargain.

While Murdoch will be grinning like the Cheshire cat, it is perhaps the fact that Google beat Microsoft (as well as Yahoo!) to the contract that is the real story here.

It is the second time that Microsoft has been thwarted in its ambitions to break Google's dominance in the search market. Last year, AOL also snubbed Microsoft in favour of selling a 5% stake to Google instead.

Nate Elliott, an analyst at Jupiter Research, says that it represents a "big blow" to Microsoft in convincing advertisers they have to be on its platform to reach users. Time will tell, he says, but Google may have paid "over the odds" on both the AOL and MySpace deals in part to "freeze out" Micrososoft.

However, with the Google/MySpace deal there are also some catches. MySpace is on track, according to analysts, to bring in $200m this year in ad revenues. Under the Google deal a crisp $500m might be the minimum to be expected at the end of next year.

But the whole deal is predicated on Fox Interactive Media maintaining traffic levels across its portfolio of sites, including MySpace. And while MySpace certainly has oodles of traffic, it also has an audience that is particularly resilient to online ads.

According to Jupiter Research the MySpace site rates are about 10 cents per thousand ads served - compared to the $3 or $4 online industry average.

And Fox Interactive has retained the right to sell its most lucrative display ads, while Google gets the first right of refusal to sell the bulk "remnant" unused spaces.

Still, with the statement by News Corp President Peter Chernin that today's deal is "the first of many steps we plan to take with Google" it is wise to watch this space, and not just MySpace.

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