Georgia Ugov is one of the lucky ones. She's got an apprenticeship just before the economy looks like falling off a cliff.
The student at Hawker College is learning her dream trade as the clouds of recession gather.
"Plumbing is just something I enjoy. I like the variety and I like the people," she said.
And she is busy at the moment, because people confined to their homes tend to block their toilets and drains more.
To help her on her way, she's just received a $3000 grant from the Rheem plumbing company - but apprentices who come after her will find it a lot tougher.
Four-year apprenticeships and shorter on-the-job training places are forecast to fall by 30 per cent, according to Peter Hurley of the Mitchell Institute.
He has crunched the numbers from previous large drops in economic output, and concluded that nearly a third of training places will vanish.
"When you look at previous recessions, you will see that kind of drop," he told The Canberra Times.
"I would expect the same thing to happen in the ACT."
Before the coronavirus crisis, there were 6595 apprentices and trainees in the ACT - 4160 men and 2435 women.
Numbers are already dropping dramatically, but the forecast would see them cut by just under 2000.
In other words, 2000 people coming out of ACT schools would be unable to find employment and training compared with the numbers before the crisis hit.
This would then have a knock-on effect, as new people coming out of school each year would have to compete with those unemployed from previous years.
"That's why it's so important to keep those apprenticeship and traineeship numbers up to what they were before the coronavirus crisis," Mr Hurley said.
The National Australian Apprenticeship Association paints three scenarios, which might broadly be described as bad, worse and terrible.
In scenario 1, health restrictions are relaxed in the coming three months and the economy starts coming back. Firms start taking on apprentices around the end of the year - but this would still mean unemployment reaches 10 per cent and youth unemployment is 20 per cent.
In scenario 2, where there is a second wave of COVID-19, the association reckons unemployment reaches 12 per cent and youth unemployment is 24 per cent.
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In scenario 3, where there is a deep global recession, unemployment reaches 15 per cent and youth unemployment is 30 per cent.
The association wants a $500 a week subsidy to employers who take on apprentices, so that there isn't the big collapse when the current temporary government help ends in September.
"It aims to prevent this year's school-leavers becoming a 'lost COVID-19 cohort' by engaging them immediately in the labour market," the association said.
That call was echoed by Michael Hopkins, the chief executive of Master Builders ACT.
"We're calling on all levels of government to work together to provide continued financial support for employers once the current subsidies finish," he said.
"This includes support from the ACT government to continue to fully fund the training of apprentices, particularly in areas that are facing skills shortages."
