AppLovin Corporation’s (NASDAQ:APP) push beyond gaming is gaining momentum, with surging non-gaming revenue fueled by international expansion, referral program adoption, and seasonal ad spend, strengthening the company’s position as it eyes broader opportunities across commerce, healthcare, and financial services.
BTIG analysts led by Clark Lampen raised their price forecast for AppLovin to $664 from $547, maintaining a Buy rating.
The brokerage now forecasts fourth-quarter 2025 non-gaming revenue of $531 million, up sharply from its prior estimate of $369 million, reflecting seasonality, international expansion, and the onboarding of its referral program.
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The analysts noted that they now model fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and EBITDA of $1.749 billion and $1.394 billion, respectively, compared with previous estimates of $1.589 billion and $1.258 billion.
For the full year 2026, BTIG stated that non-gaming spending is projected to reach $2.58 billion, up from $2.13 billion previously, which will lift total revenue and EBITDA forecasts to $8.19 billion and $6.84 billion, respectively.
The firm added that late August channel checks indicated about a 50% intra-quarter improvement in return on ad spend, with marketers increasingly scaling campaigns on total returns.
BTIG views AppLovin as well-positioned to expand its platform into new verticals such as commerce, financial services, healthcare, and automotive.
The analysts noted that this expansion could create an incremental advertising opportunity of $245–$ 285 billion, which, assuming 10–20% incrementality and a 25–30% take-rate, implies a long-term revenue opportunity of $6.1–$ 17.1 billion.
BTIG said it assumes AppLovin will be 10–20% incremental to marketers’ budgets, arguing that advertisers only increase spending if a platform expands reach and improves returns.
The firm cited Northbeam data showing AppLovin already accounts for about 4% of client spend, behind only Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, as an early proof point of performance and incrementality.
BTIG noted that its valuation is based on a 32.5x multiple of the 2026 estimated software EBITDA, adjusted for -$1.6 billion in net cash, with bull and bear cases implying outcomes of $819 and $201, respectively.
The analysts reiterated AppLovin as a top pick, citing improvements in Axon 2.0, deeper penetration into non-gaming categories, and the upcoming rollout of a self-serve dashboard.
Price Action: APP stock is trading higher by 0.98% to $587.72 at last check Monday.
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