The New York Times's Bits blog says it has some numbers of the size of AT&T's payments to Apple from iPhone users from Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. They are based on AT&T's financial statements of "deferred revenue":
His bottom line is rather shocking: AT&T appears to be paying $18 a month, on average, to Apple for each iPhone activated on its network. That adds up to $432 over a two year contract. In other words, Apple will receive $831 for each iPhone it sells. (It's a little less for iPhones sold in AT&T stores.) He can't tell, of course, what makes up that average. Apple may, for example, receive higher payments for customers new to AT&T or those who buy more expensive monthly plans. Mr Munster says he was surprised by the numbers. He previously had estimated that Apple received $6.50 a month from AT&T. A carrier will typically subsidize the price of a high-end phone by about $200, he says. With the iPhone, AT&T is spreading the payments out over time, but ultimately putting up twice the typical amount.
Munster is interested because it affects his estimates of Apple's revenues and stock price. He's increased his estimate of Apple's 2009 revenue from $36.2 billion to $42.8 billion and his target stock price from $220 to $250. Yes, it's all guesswork and could be horribly wrong. The blog nonetheless concludes:
All this shows how much incentive Apple has to maintain its exclusive deal with AT&T rather than to sell unlocked phones or cut deals with multiple carriers. AT&T is finding that an exclusive on the iPhone draws in new customers and lures existing ones to buy more expensive data plans. Carriers will keep paying Apple big kickbacks so long as its phones still stand out from the pack.
In its latest bid to discourage people from unlocking phones, Apple is now refusing to accept cash and limiting sales to two per person, down from five, reports AP. Apple spokesman Natalie Kerris says: "We're requiring a credit or debit card for payment to discourage unauthorized resellers."
It's not clear how this acts as a discouragement rather than just making life awkward. Will it just oblige you to use a different credit card for each purchase? Or is Apple proposing to get your address from the credit card company then send someone round to your house to make you produce all the iPhones you've bought?
