Better-than-expected early sales of Apple's iPhone 17 smartphones are likely the result of consumers retiring their aging handsets, not because of any exciting new features, analysts say. Apple stock rose Monday after the first weekend of iPhone 17 sales.
On Sunday, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives reiterated his outperform rating on Apple stock and raised his 12-month price target to 310 from 270.
On the stock market today, Apple stock advanced 4.3% to close at 256.08.
"With iPhone 17 officially going on sale over the weekend, we are positively surprised on the demand trajectory with units that now appear to be tracking 10%-15% ahead of iPhone 16 thus far," Ives said in a client note.
Apple's iPhone 17 is benefiting from a pent-up consumer upgrade cycle, Ives said. An estimated 315 million iPhone users have not upgraded their handsets in the last four years, he said. That's out of 1.5 billion iPhones in use worldwide.
"We believe iPhone unit Street estimates of roughly 230 million for fiscal 2026 could be conservative and (are) now in the 240 million to 250 million area at this pace," Ives said.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, concurs.
"Early signs suggest the iPhone will exceed Street forecasts in FY26," he said in blog post. "Reading the lead-time tea leaves suggests we are off to a solid start to the iPhone 17 cycle."
Apple Stock Approaching Buy Point
Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee maintained his hold rating on Apple stock with a price target of 205.82.
While iPhone 17 unit sales point to solid demand this cycle, Apple faces a downside risk related to average selling prices, Lee said in a client note.
Apple is seeing strong sales of the regular iPhone 17 models, but relatively weak sales of the iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro models, which sport higher prices.
Apple stock is nearing a buy point of 260.10 out of a 38-week consolidation pattern, according to IBD MarketSurge charts.
Follow Patrick Seitz on X at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
