Investors have soured on Apple stock this year. Will the iPhone maker's fiscal third-quarter earnings report next week change their mood?
That's the question the consumer electronics giant will answer on July 31 when it gives Q3 results and its guidance for the current period.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect the Cupertino, Calif.-based company to earn $1.42 a share on sales of $89.1 billion in the June quarter. In the year-earlier period, Apple earned $1.40 a share on sales of $85.78 billion. Wall Street's estimates call for earnings growth of just 1.4% year over year and sales growth of 3.9%.
For the current quarter, analysts are modeling earnings of $1.65 a share, up a penny from the same quarter last year. They forecast sales growth of 2.9% to $97.67 billion.
On the stock market today, Apple stock fell a fraction to 214.15. But year to date, Apple stock is down 14.5%.
IBD MarketSurge charts show Apple stock in the bottom half of a 30-week consolidation pattern with a buy point of 260.10. That buy point is also the stock's all-time high, reached on Dec. 26.
Further, Apple stock is trading below its 200-day moving average line, a negative sign.
Apple hasn't offered much for investors to get excited about lately. Announcements at the company's Worldwide Developers Conference were uninspiring, and analysts say it badly lags in artificial intelligence.
Next Catalyst For Apple Stock
The next major catalyst for Apple stock is likely to be the company's fall product lineup, including the iPhone 17 family. Apple usually schedules its annual product launch for early to mid-September. However, analysts expect only incremental updates to Apple's handsets this cycle.
That event will follow the big splash that rival Samsung Electronics made with its folding-screen smartphones on July 9. And Alphabet's Google is holding an event on Aug. 20 to announce new Pixel smartphones, watches, earbuds and more.
Meanwhile, Apple's services business is under pressure from a court ruling that has limited the fees it can charge. Plus, a pending decision in a U.S. antitrust case could impact Apple's lucrative deal with Google as the default search engine on iPhones.
In a client note Wednesday, Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White said Apple is "facing a mountain of worry." He noted regulatory headwinds and the implications of President Donald Trump's trade policies.
Still, White reiterated his buy rating and 245 price target on Apple stock.
Apple Shares Range-Bound
"Apple takes to the earnings stage with a series of headwinds in its path," White said. Those headwinds include "tariffs, setbacks on the AI front, economic challenges in China, heightened scrutiny around the App Store, and potential collateral damage from the outcome (ruling expected by the end of August) of the DOJ's civil antitrust search suit against Alphabet's Google. Plus, Apple is entrenched in its own DOJ antitrust lawsuit," he said.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring said Apple stock will be stuck in a trading range of 195 to 215 until investors can get clarity on a number of issues. They include concerns around services growth, the impact of tariffs, and the Department of Justice remedy ruling in the Google antitrust case, he said.
Woodring rates Apple stock as overweight with a price target of 235.
Follow Patrick Seitz on X at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
