So anyway, a week or so ago I made my predictions for what would be in the iPhone 2.0. They were:
With that all in mind, let's get to the meat. What can we therefore expect in iPhone 2.0? My calculations, based on all the noise going on, are:
· a three-megapixel camera. Cheap upgrade, people will herald its "50% better" picture quality.
· video. Easy, because it can already do this.No. (Wrong.)
· possibly, just possibly, WiMax. A few places have this, and it's just the kind of out-there technology that might find a use. But I'd put the chances at about 5%.No. (Wrong.)
· 3G connectivity. Cheap, obvious, essential for its Far Eastern launch coming later this year.Yes. (Correct.)
· better Bluetooth profiles. Obvious incremental upgrade.No. (Wrong.)
· voice and speed dialling. Easy, incremental upgrades based on phone software. Apple's had more than a year to work on this.No. (Wrong.)
What won't be there:
· SMS forwarding. Americans don't understand SMS, and aren't about to start now.No. (Correct.)
· GPS. Expensive, sucks power, imprecise, and isn't standard on the vast majority of phones, so Apple isn't losing by not using it.Yes. (Wrong.)
· a cheap one.Yes and no - we don't know the UK pricing, though it's $199 for the 8GB model and $399 for the 16GB model in the US (though with no word on pricing plans there). (Score draw?)
I make that two correct out of nine. Not much good, eh? And the things that are wrong are on the upgrades - things like the camera, Bluetooth profiles, video calls or messages, voice and speed dialling.
Is that missing list indicative of stuff that Apple can't do? Seems unlikely. Is it perhaps then indicative of stuff that Apple has found people don't actually use? Do we not care about a 3 megapixel camera, or video calls, or voice and speed dialling? I know that I would be pushed to tell the difference between a 2MP and a 3MP pic (and it'll use up 50% more storage space). Bluetooth profiles would be useful - maybe it's tricky? Video calls - nobody makes those. (Come on, seriously.) Video messages? Don't get much of that, I don't think. Voice dialling? I've used it, and it's very useful. Speed dialling? Lots of people in the US use that. Can't see the rationale behind leaving that out.
Then again, GPS? Nice for some things, but it was noticeable that in his speech Jobs put up a slide about battery life with audio, video, phone calls; then took it down and started talking about GPS. Because it's a battery-sucker. (Thanks, Andy Ihnatko.)
As for "Mobile Me" - which is .Mac, rebranded - it hasn't been a great seller in its current form (6 million iPhones sold, Jobs said; I'll bet there aren't 6m .Mac accounts, though possibly on current form I shouldn't bet a large amount). What's going to be compelling now?
So apart from aiming to thoroughly arse up my forecast, what do you think is Apple's rationale for what it has and hasn't done in the new iPhone?
