António Guterres, the man who spent a decade grappling with the world’s response to the global refugee crisis, has taken a step closer to becoming the UN’s next secretary general, with the latest in a series of clear victories in a security council straw poll.
Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister and UN high commissioner for refugees, strengthened his clear lead in the contest on Monday, maintaining his support as his principal challengers fell back.
Meanwhile, odds rose for a late entrant to the race in the form of the EU budget commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva, after the poll showed weakening support for her fellow Bulgarian, Irina Bokova, the director general of Unesco, the UN education and culture organisation.
Bulgaria’s prime minister, Boyko Borisov suggested earlier this month that he would withdraw support for Bokova if she did not finish first or second in Monday’s ballot, potentiallyclearing the way for Georgieva to replace her. There was no immediate confirmation from Sofia on Monday evening on whether he would deliver on that threat.
Even if he did, Georgieva would then have to decide whether she wanted to enter a race so far dominated by one candidate.
“The timing might not be right for her,” said a diplomat at the UN. “It is not as if the field is in disarray. There is a clear leader she would be up against.”
In the fifth security council ballot on Monday, Guterres received 12 votes encouraging his candidacy, against two discouraging it in the 15-seat council, with one abstention. It was the same score as the previous poll on 9 September, but his main challenger then, the Slovakian foreign minister, Miroslav Lajčák, dropped back into third position with eight encourages and seven discourages. The result was behind the former Serbian foreign minister, Vuk Jeremić, whose score was eight to six. Both men lost support since the last vote.
Guterres is a surprise frontrunner, as many people had expected the next secretary general to be an east European and a woman, to break new ground. But the former UN refugee chief was generally considered to have performed well in public hearings in the general assembly, and his advocacy on behalf of refugees is seen as important at a time of mass displacement from wars, terrorism and climate change.
However, his lead is not decisive. A winner must gain at least nine votes and no vetoes from the five permanent council members. It is possible that one or both of the votes against Guterres come from one of the permanent five (P5). Moscow has said it wants an eastern European as the international community’s next top diplomat. A potential veto will only make itself clear in the next round of voting, on 5 October when P5 states will cast coloured ballots.
A Russian veto of Guterres in the face of such broad support could bring western retaliation in the form of vetoes on Russian favourites among the other eight remaining candidates.
“If Guterres is blocked, everyone on the list will be blocked, and we will be looking for new entrants,” said a senior security council diplomat.
Georgieva could face the same barriers as Guterres. She is a senior member of the European commission that is currently imposing sanctions on Russia over its actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Both Guterres and Georgieva would be expected to be activist secretary generals, using all of the powers in the post to put pressure on the security council on humanitarian issues. For that reason, both may seem unpalatable to Russia, and possibly China too. Moscow was furious with the current secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, when he challenged Russia on its role in Syria earlier this year.
