Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals
Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.
Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.
What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.
- Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
- "Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."
