FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Just when we thought hurricane season was pretty much over, a reminder that it isn't.
A smattering of clouds and showers in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of the weekend, and possibly a tropical storm or hurricane, forecasters say.
"The odds are against the system to become as strong as Hurricane Matthew was," according to a post by senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski on AccuWeather.com. "However, conditions could allow the system to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane."
The disturbance, expected by forecasters to develop slowly, was given an 80 percent chance of formation over the next five days by the National Hurricane Center. It's also expected to be in no hurry, given the light steering winds in the area, hurricane watchers are saying.
If it becomes a named storm, it would be Otto.
"There's a pretty good chance this will become a tropical depression this weekend and probably Tropical Storm Otto next week," said Dan Kottlowski, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, based in Pennsylvania. "If the atmosphere stays as it is right now, certainly there's a chance it could become a hurricane."
Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, said it was too early to forecast whether or not the storm _ if it forms _ would be a threat to Florida or the U.S. Historically, such late-season threats to the U.S. are rare.
"It's too early to say that for certain," Beven said of the potential storm's path. "I can say that in the next few days, it will likely stay in the southwestern Caribbean."
The Weather Underground said "heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern" and that the forecast models are not big on hurricane formation.
"The ensemble guidance suggests only a slim chance that Otto could go on to become a hurricane, said a blog post by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson on wunderground.com. "Any movement of 90L (its pre-tropical cyclone name) away from the extreme southwest Caribbean is likely to be at least a week from now."
Kottlowski added that it's "very rare" for November storms to approach Florida, and that any threat to the U.S. is minimal at best.
"You never say never, but it's pretty close," Kottlowski said.
Kottlowski said there was also the potential concern that Haiti, which was hit hard by Hurricane Matthew in October, could see heavy rainfall, as could other parts of the Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, as well as Central America.
Tropical cyclones form about once every three years in November, Kottlowski said, with the Caribbean Sea acting as the prime incubator this late in Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends Nov. 30.
"The conditions become a bit more favorable there, the water stays warm there in October and November, and the upper level winds are not always, but often, favorable in that area (at this time of year)," Beven said.
