DALLAS — The Stars are showing you who they are — at least in the opening month of the season.
It’s up to you to believe they can change.
During a 4-1 loss to the Senators on Friday night, the Stars went through more of the same in a loss that dropped them to 3-4-1 and gave rebuilding Ottawa a season sweep over Dallas. They were a team that struggled (again) to score at even-strength. They relied too heavily on the power play for offense. They asked their goaltending to be near perfect by providing just one goal to work with.
The Stars remained winless in regulation, one of three teams in the NHL with the dubious distinction. Arizona and Chicago have not won any games at all.
Joe Pavelski scored during a second-period power play to provide the only goal for the Stars. Braden Holtby made 20 saves during his second straight start of allowing at least three goals.
Josh Norris scored twice for Ottawa, as Brady Tkachuk and Connor Brown added tallies. Filip Gustavsson made 38 saves for the Sens.
The Stars fell behind 3-0 to the Senators (who have beat Dallas for two of their three wins), and pushed after facing the three-goal deficit. They threatened on the power play. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson were denied at even-strength. The Stars deserved to have more than one goal exiting the second period.
But, if the last few seasons have taught us anything about the Stars, it’s that they don’t always get what they deserve.
Since 2018, they are the worst finishing team in the NHL, despite generating enough scoring chances to be at least a mediocre offense. Instead, they have been at the bottom of the league. It has continued this season.
The Stars have scored just seven goals at 5 on 5, tied with the hapless Blackhawks for the fewest in the league. Of the Stars’ last seven goals, just two are at 5 on 5. They have been consistently unable to drive offense during the majority of the game, and have instead asked their power play and goaltending to shoulder the load.
Of course, special teams and goaltending happen to be two of the most volatile parts of hockey, given their preponderance on small sample sizes (number of power play chances a game) and luck (bad bounces on goalies).
Since the Stars play a brand of hockey that lends itself to tight games, special teams and goaltending have a greater effect on Dallas’ outcomes than they might have on other teams around the league. It’s why stretches like this season-opening one have happened often to the Stars in recent years — like the bookends to the 2019-20 regular season.
Of course, this is based on the assumption that the Stars continue to struggle at 5 on 5.
The Stars very well could become an improved team at 5 on 5.
John Klingberg has played four games this season. Robertson has played two. Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov and Hintz are still working their way back from surgeries. Jamie Benn has not scored a goal in the season’s first eight games.
And there are 74 games left on the schedule.
If the Stars can count on the combination of youth (Hintz and Robertson) and experience (Seguin and Radulov) to create offense, this early season malaise will draw chuckles just like 1-7-1 now does after a 2020 Western Conference championship. Dallas played like that team against Vegas on Wednesday, dominating play, but collapsing late in a loss to the Golden Knights.
“That is the expectation every game to play like that, not the exception,” Stars coach Rick Bowness said. “That was our first game that we’ve played Dallas Stars hockey for 60 minutes, 62, whatever the heck it was. That’s the expectation every night. They expect that from themselves and they should expect that from their teammates. That was the best game we’ve played all year.”
The alternative is much scarier for Dallas. If this team is truly reliant on the power play and goaltending, it will be susceptible to inconsistent results and swings up the standings.
It’s up to you to believe they can change.
