Where do England go from here? "Home" is the tempting answer. "To Sydney for another hammering by Australia on Friday" might be more accurate. They will lose, probably heavily, and will then need to beat New Zealand next week at Brisbane while collecting a bonus point and sorting out their appalling net run-rate. Put simply, it ain't gonna happen.
There is a school of thought - led by Vic Marks in the Observer - which argues that England are better off failing to qualify anyway on the grounds that a rest will be better for their state of mind than more misery at the hands of the Aussies. The Spin has some sympathy with this view, but prefers a compromise: lose to Australia, then beat New Zealand but not well enough to qualify for the finals, thus ensuring a spot of good old psychological momentum ahead of the World Cup, where New Zealand are in England's group, and avoiding a mental drubbing by Australia.
But to even begin to conjure up such Machiavellian ruses, England need - as ever - to sort out a number of issues. Bad luck played a tiny part in their latest defeat this morning, because they have been robbed of their likely World Cup new-ball opening pairing of Jon Lewis and Jimmy Anderson through injury (another familiar problem on England tours: why?). The rest of it, with the exception of some flashing strokes from Ed Joyce and some luck-riding by Paul Nixon and Liam Plunkett, was as hopeless as it was predictable.
A question: why are Andrew Strauss and Ian Bell not being given the chance to build on the moderate success they enjoyed as opening partners during the Champions Trophy? Strauss can barely get the ball off the square, it is true. But he is hardly likely to improve from No4, where he has not batted twice only since the end of the one-day series in South Africa in February 2005 and when the field offers fewer gaps for his cross-batted strengths to exploit. Then again, the sight of England experimenting so close to another World Cup should not surprise us.
Another question (stop the Spin if you've heard this one before): when are England going to learn how to rotate the strike, especially against the spinners? Given Duncan Fletcher's fascination with wrists and angles, his batsmen remain inept at working the gaps. Today provided a damning example. Bell lofted Jeetan Patel (whose figures were made worse by two shocking misfields and a poor no-ball call) down the ground for six, but followed that with two dot balls and a tame chip to midwicket. At the risk of worshipping at the Strine shrine, an Aussie batsman would have gathered a single off the ball after the six and then found himself on strike again two balls later.
And yet England's performance today was littered with the kind of small errors that, across 50 overs, add up to a tonking. Mal Loye keeps chasing the left-armers, Joyce spoiled a promising knock by failing to dive for the crease. Paul Collingwood - who looks as broken right now as Strauss - batted ahead of Andrew Flintoff at a time when England were falling absurdly behind the rate. Flintoff forgot that he is best when hitting down the ground. And Jamie Dalrymple, at last batting ahead of Nixon, appears obsessed with the reverse-sweep. Nixon, as per Sod's Law, responded with some runs.
There are, however, two reasons to be optimistic. The first is that Kevin Pietersen will be back for the World Cup, unless he slips on a piece of bling in the meantime. The second is Monty Panesar, who finished with better figures today than the excellent and experienced Daniel Vettori and must play in the Caribbean. Expect him to be dropped any time soon.
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