Angela Merkel may enjoy the respite from political upheaval in Germany when she meets David Cameron at Chequers to hear her British counterpart’s demands for EU reform.
The chancellor travels to the UK at a time when her country is in a state of heightened tension over the refugee crisis that has led not only to a crumbling of the political consensus within her own Christian Democrats (CDU), but an almost unheard of slump in her own popularity ratings.
Merkel’s stance has caused a major row between herself and Horst Seehofer, who leads the CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and is the premier of that state. Situated on the frontline of the refugee drama, Bavaria is threatening to close its borders with Austria in an attempt to curb the flow of 10,000 people arriving in the country every day.
Some German commentators have wondered – as they did when she travelled to India last week for trade talks – how the chancellor can contemplate leaving Berlin at such a time. The fragility of the situation makes Cameron’s attempts to win Merkel’s support for his desire to curtail freedom of movement within the EU seem small fry. On that subject, Merkel has repeatedly made it clear that she is not for turning.
At Cameron’s birthday dinner on Friday night, it is likely she will try to refocus the discussion on more pressing problems, such as how to solve the Syrian war, and how to construct a fairer refugee distribution policy within the EU. In an interview on German television on Wednesday, Merkel made a pointed reference to EU countries, including Britain, which were not “pulling their weight”. Germany is currently receiving more refugees in two days than Cameron has pledged to take over five years. “Some European partners are shirking from the task,” she said.
Merkel will be well aware of the negative press she has received in the UK, and the perception that Germany is trying to portray itself as the “moral imperialist”, to steal a phrase from Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban.
The chancellor has tried to sweep such accusations aside, repeatedly insisting in the television interview that she had not caused the crisis, but was responding to it. “It’s our damned duty to help refugees,” she said, dismissing the idea of closing Germany’s borders.
“We cannot close our borders, we have got a 3,000km-long frontier ... We would have to build a fence and there’s no such thing as stopping the intake,” she said.
Cameron might well wonder if this encounter will be his last with Merkel. If she doesn’t manage to get the refugee situation in Germany under control, her days as chancellor may well be numbered.
