It may ease Andy Murray’s pain to learn that Roger Federer is sure the Scot can win the Australian Open one day – except not on his day, not on Sunday when, against all expectations, the Swiss could now be taking Murray’s place in the final.
They were due to meet in the quarter-finals on Tuesday. Murray, No1 in the world, it was said, would beat the old 17th seed here. Coming back from six months away from the Tour to heal after knee surgery that threatened to end his career at 35, Federer was there for the taking. But it did not work out that way.
There is a decent chance the two players who will contest the title next Sunday will have a combined age of 65 and were, by general consensus, headed for the sport’s dustbin.
With Murray and Novak Djokovic already gone, the buzz here at the start of the second week is that Federer and the 30-year-old Rafael Nadal – both of whom lost chunks of last season to injury – will still be standing towards the end of the second week.
The smart money has correctly installed Stan Wawrinka as the new favourite, followed by Milos Raonic and Nadal. Nevertheless it is the comeback of Federer, who has cut a stylish swathe through the first four rounds culminating in a five-set win over the fifth seed, Kei Nishikori, , that has sent a shiver of familiar excitement through the tournament and the game.
The man himself remains serenely detached.
“I felt if Rafa and myself can be healthy, yes, you can expect [them to be in the second week]. That Novak and Andy are not [in the quarters], that is a big surprise. I never thought that Mischa Zverev and Denis Istomin would beat those two big guys.
“I guess it’s good for tennis that a lot of guys believe stronger now that the top guys are beatable, are vulnerable, especially on a faster court. It happened completely in different circumstances. But two huge surprises. No doubt about that.”
Asked about his stores of energy and chances of going all the way, Federer said: “I’ve had a cold for two weeks. Nothing new. I felt great in the fifth, I must say. Great energy. Even deep into the fourth I thought: ‘Yeah, fifth, here we go, no problem for me.’
“I’m feeling good about my chances. I was playing positive tennis, I was playing offensive. My body was reacting. I was playing way better than the first couple of rounds where I put in a lot of mental energy to stay with my opponents, figure them out, how were they going to play, how were the conditions going to be, understand the comeback really.
“I think now that I’m in the tournament I was able to focus point per point on my opponent, on the tactics. That didn’t drain me much. I felt great in the fifth, which I’m very happy about.”
The fans want their revered hero to rise again. And, watching his backhand click again in a tough, impressive win over Nishikori, it was seductive to think he just might do it (with a caveat).
Murray would not say so publicly but he must have felt strong vibes about beating Federer in the next round. However, he was shocked to his boots by the world No50, Zverev, earlier in the day. The game and the tournament had pretty much recovered from the equally seismic loss Djokovic endured in the second round against the world No117, Denis Istomin, when the player who displaced the Serb at No1 in the world was also shown the door.
Can Federer capitalise on the troubles of his adversaries? Maybe not. As beautifully as he has played in four wins so far, as much as the old fire is evident in his eyes, he will need a different sort of staying power in the remaining three matches.
Wawrinka has not been at his best, but he is rightly considered the man to beat and should beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who beat Dan Evans, in the quarters. Raonic, who lost to Murray in the Wimbledon final after beating Federer in the semi-final, is also a serious threat. Then there is Nadal, who saw off Zverev’s younger brother, Alex, on Saturday.
Federer must have thought all of this through yet still reckoned he could pull off a blessed comeback. He has rediscovered his touch just as his nearest rivals had fallen, unexpectedly. Who can doubt him?
He played inspired tennis dismissing the unreliable Tomas Berdych in three sets two nights earlier, and he did enormously well to recover from 0-4 down to force a first-set tie-break against Nishikori. But the Japanese player prevailed, to the disappointment of an audience wholly behind the Swiss.
Thereafter the match took on an altogether different mood. Federer was energised by his resistance in the first set and methodically worked his way back into the match, trusting those raking groundstrokes, his legs still carrying him to most of the right places, his balance as superb as it ever was. The only doubt was stamina: could the old dog survive a dog-fight?
What an irony that it was Nishikori who drifted physically, taking a long changeover break for work on his back when 0-3 down in the final set. He has had his issues but it was Federer, eight years older than him, who looked decidedly sharper for most of the three hours they had been on court.
When Federer served out the match to love, wrapping it up with a smash, he showed unexpected passion in celebration. It was most unFederer-like. He may surprise us further.
