Whatever the lucky loser Lucas Pouille does against Andy Murray in the semi-finals of the Italian Open on Saturday, he will leave Rome feeling more blessed than the Pope. It is hard to imagine a run of form and fortune to match that which has accompanied the young Frenchman in recent weeks and Murray, who views fate as suspiciously as does any athlete, will be alive to the dangers of an upset.
The prize is considerable: a debut in the final, just about the perfect preparation for the French Open starting on 22 May. Lurking, probably, will be Novak Djokovic, whose extraordinary resilience and talent carried him to a memorable 26th win over Rafael Nadal in the second quarter-final, 7-5, 7-6.
For the 22-year-old Pouille life must seem like a dream. Having taken only seven games off Mikhail Kukushkin in the qualifiers, the world No 52 belatedly entered the main draw when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga withdrew, then inherited his compatriot’s first-round bye. He got Ernests Gulbis in the second round on one of the gifted Latvian’s intermittent off-days, then played wonderfully to allow David Ferrer, the world No9, only five games.
But Lucky Lucas must have thought the Pontiff himself was praying for him when he woke up on Friday, the 13th, to learn Juan Monaco had pulled out of their quarter-final. And now he is in the most unfamiliar of weekend company; if Murray stubs his toe overnight and heads straight for Paris, Pouille really will be the luckiest lucky loser of them all.
After producing some of his best tennis of 2016 to beat David Goffin 6-1, 7-5 in the first quarter-final on a sultry Friday afternoon, Murray reflected on an opponent he has never played but whose tennis he knows well enough. “He would have had a great chance if he’d played Monaco,” Murray said. “He killed Ferrer the other day, 4 and 1, which is a fantastic result on clay. He beat Goffin last week in Madrid. He beat [Richard] Gasquet in Monte Carlo.
“Yeah, this week he’s been a bit fortunate [as] the lucky loser and maybe the withdrawal today, but he’s very good. By the end of this year he’ll be up close to the top 20 in the world, potentially higher. I think after this tournament he will be around 30, at least. I don’t expect it to be easy.”
Murray, in his first tournament after splitting with Amélie Mauresmo, is two wins away from the third clay title of his career. The Scot, who will be back at No2 in the world on Monday after Roger Federer’s exit here this week, is embracing this surface with enthusiasm, having reached semi-finals or better three times in a row in a Masters 1000 clay event.
“I’m getting rewarded now for the work that I put in over the years on this surface,” he said. “It took me time to feel comfortable on it. But I didn’t just give up on clay and say, ‘You know what? This isn’t my surface. I’m not going to prepare for it properly or train hard.’
“I have had good results at Roland Garros in the past but, in the Masters, I’ve not played as well. But I have also had chances to do very well in these tournaments before – like my match in the semis against Novak here [in 2011], and I played Rafa here a few years ago and was up a break in the third [at 4-1]. I’ve a couple of good matches with Rafa in Rome, and played well in Madrid [where, as defending champion, he beat Nadal in the semis and took Djokovic to three sets in the final].
“I didn’t necessarily expect to be doing as well as I have been the last couple of years, but I deserve it because I have worked hard for it”
He was well worth this exhilarating win over Goffin, who said: “He can do everything: he can slice, he can serve bombs. He has a good second serve. He has really good backhand. The return is amazing.” And he beat a player bang in form.
Less than a day after playing what he described as “the perfect match” in handing eighth seed Tomas Berdych a rare double bagel, Goffin was returned to the ranks against Murray. The last time they met on clay, nearly six months ago in Ghent, Murray beat the Belgian in three sets to seal Great Britain’s first Davis Cup win in 79 years.
The stakes weren’t quite as high here. Players view any tournament – even a Masters 1000 – so close to a slam with ambivalence: a chance to rack up some money and points, and to fine-tune their game for the bigger challenge awaiting them.
The second quarter-final reached even dizzier heights than the first. Of the 49 contests between Djokovic and Nadal this surely deserves a place in the top 10. It was animalistic, draining – to watch as well as play – a struggle of immense commitment. Djokovic has now won 15 sets in a row against his greatest rival but Nadal stretched him to his outer limits.
The Serb, who goes to Paris at No1 in the world for 200 weeks in a row, saved five set points when Nadal, up 4-2 at one stage in the second set, was within sight of taking it to a shootout. Had he done so, the result would probably have been the same. There was no denying Djokovic who closed it out in a tie-break to triumph in two hours 24 minutes. He will play Kei Nishikori or Dominic Thiem in the last four, and will start favourite again at Roland Garros. This time he might just do it.
