Key points
In a speech in Westminster, Andrea Leadsom, the leading pro-Brexit candidate for leadership of the Conservative party, appeared to ditch the economic strategy of her former boss George Osborne and sought to reassure the financial markets that Britain could cope with leaving the EU.
She said the lower pound would be good for exports and claimed the stock market had already recovered. To cheers from supporters, Leadsom said she wanted to “banish the pessimists” in a speech that blended patriotism with aspirational values.
Together we will write another great chapter of prosperity and tolerance and hope.
Verdict
Buy shares in Michael Gove. On Tuesday night, after the results of the first round of the Conservative leadership election came out, it looked as if Leadsom was the overwhelming favourite to come second – meaning Gove would drop out, and Leadsom and Theresa May would be on the shortlist of two in the ballot of party members.
It was very hard to see where Gove would find the votes to catch her up. But after that speech I’m not so sure – because it was so dire it would be surprising if some of her supporters did not start to have second thoughts.
On Wednesday afternoon her team sent out an operational note to journalists saying she would be making “a major speech on the economy”. In the event, we got nothing of the sort. The problem was not that it was short, because it is not difficult to say something interesting and meaningful in a few hundred words. What was so awful was that it was trite – little more than a catalogue of slogans about optimism and Britain having a bright future. People who put themselves forward as a future prime minister normally have clear ideas of what they want to do. Leadsom had an opportunity to reveal her own ideas today, but the cupboard seemed empty.
It is not just me saying this. This is from ITV’s Chris Ship.
That was *not* as billed a 'major speech on the economy' by @andrealeadsom. More a series of optimistic hopes and soundbites
— Chris Ship (@chrisshipitv) July 7, 2016
And this is from BBC’s Norman Smith.
So Leadsom pitch...higher pay, no austerity, better training, banish pessimism . The Land of Milk and Honey ???
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) July 7, 2016
(Remember, these are two TV reporters who are paid to be impartial.)
Analysis
Does this mean Gove will really beat Leadsom in the ballot on Thursday? Who knows? We get the results shortly after 4pm. Leadsom got 66 votes on Tuesday, and Gove got 48. There are 34 Stephen Crabb votes up for grabs, but it is thought almost all of those will go to May. There are also 16 Liam Fox votes available, but even if all of those went to fellow hawkish leaver Gove (and they won’t, because Fox is voting for May), on their own they would not allow Gove to overtake Leadsom. But the doubts about Leadsom’s CV, which first emerged after Tuesday night, will have damaged her, and the latest speech raises serious doubts about her credibility as a future PM.
In one sense, though, she might benefit. There has been speculation about May supporters voting tactically for Gove, in the belief that May would find it easier in a membership ballot to beat Gove (assassin of the Tory grassroots idol Boris Johnson) than Leadsom (Thatcher-wannabe Brexiteer). However, Gove, for all his faults, is a proper political heavyweight. Maybe some of May’s supporters will look at Leadsom’s speech today and conclude that in a two-month leadership contest she would crumble.
